In the face of political uncertainty, prudence is required

2023-08-15 05:00:00

Once once more, the primary elections refuted previous analyses. According to projections, Together for Change would be the coalition with the most votes, Union for the Homeland would be second and La Libertad Avanza, by Javier Milei, would come in a comfortable third place.

From a qualitative perspective, it was noted that in a high proportion of the population, disappointment with politics stood out, which would translate into a high abstention rate.

The result, historic and unexpected, was that Milei came out first; that for the first time Peronism came third in an election for the presidential, and that, between the two, a decayed Together for Change was located.

Thus, the primaries did not resolve anything substantive, since between the first and third forces there is barely a 3% difference, with an electoral abstention that reached a record by exceeding 30%.

Using a play on words, we might say that a third of society did not vote and that the two thirds that did vote were divided into three thirds in almost identical proportions.

The general election on October 22 has been fully open. Milei will have to show that the primaries were not a mere circumstance, but an indication of the consolidation of his leadership. The other two coalitions will have to reinforce their speeches, not only to contain those who lost in their respective internal elections, but above all to face the ghost that, if Milei’s impulse were confirmed, one of the two would not enter the eventual ballot, instance which today seems to be the only political certainty, since it is very unlikely that one of the three main candidates will prevail in the first round.

As in our country it is common for political uncertainty to be transferred to the economic arena, both the political leadership and the economic actors should act with the utmost prudence.

It is obvious that the greatest responsibility lies with the ruling party. In the situation of intrinsic weakness in which it finds itself, will it summon the other forces to dialogue? Or will you prefer to overact a speech of “defense of the people”, antagonizing the opposition as a whole, and launch some “platita plan” to attract votes?

The first signal from the Government came yesterday, although it may have been decided before the elections: it validated a devaluation of the peso in the order of 22%. Then, something long awaited by the markets and demanded by the International Monetary Fund finally materializes. But, with political uncertainty, the devaluation was associated with a new rise in the dollar blue and a crash in stocks and bonds. Without a package of measures, it will immediately pass through to inflation.

It will be inevitable that the two main opposing forces will criticize the economic situation, but they should know that everything they say will have an impact on the markets, which always tend to protect themselves from political uncertainty.

A minimal political dialogue to calmly transit the 10 weeks that distance us from the general elections seems impossible. But a worsening of the economic situation would play once morest not only the candidates, but also society.

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