“In the argument between Conte and Schlein the center-right wins” –

Livio Gigliuto (Piepoli Institute)

Pietro De Leo

April 11, 2024

Giuseppe Conte’s justicialist attack on Elly Schlein and the Democratic Party, the derby for the leadership of the centre-left. addressed all this, with Livio Gigliuto, Executive President of the Piepoli Institute.

Conte is pressing Elly Schlein with the grip of the moral question. Will this bring him anything in terms of consensus?
«From the data we are collecting at this stage we can say that no one profits from it. Once upon a time, indeed, the legal problems in which one political party ran into brought advantages to the opposing or competing party. Today this is no longer the case, and the Latin phrase ‘in dubiis abstine’ applies, when in doubt abstain. This in a literal sense.”

So is the area of ​​non-voting growing?
«The consequence is that, there is the risk that the pool of abstention will increase. But there is a reasoning, beyond this, that can be done in detail. We are detecting in the data analysis a rather high level of trust in the judiciary. And there is a component of voters that has an even higher share than the others: those of the 5 Star Movement.”

In essence, does Conte strengthen his electoral bloc by doing so?
«Yes, because it kills the proverbial “two birds with one stone”. On the one hand, you forcefully express the justicialist streak, which is still present in a non-secondary part of the 5 Star Movement. On the other hand, he once once more demonstrates his “diversity” compared to traditional parties.”

Let’s talk regarding the Democratic Party instead. Schlein promised to defuse the ringleaders. Isn’t he at risk of paying for these legal matters involving the local level of the party?
«Schlein based his account of the last few months, which is perhaps the best phase in terms of personal consensus, on the construction of the alliance with the M5S. What puts his personal consensus at risk is not so much the judicial events at local level, or the war between currents that re-emerges, but the lack of solidity of the alliance with the M5S.”

Is it realistic that the M5S can overtake the Democratic Party in the European elections?
“At the moment no data predicts this situation, but it is still a dynamic to be observed carefully.”

Is it possible to think that some voters confined to abstentionism might vote for the centre-right?
«In administrative elections, yes, it’s possible. Compactness is the great strength of the centre-right. The coalition, in fact, has been identical since 1994. And voters don’t want to vote for quarrelsome people, they tend to reward coalitions that prove to be more united.”