Zhao Tong is a research fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie/Tsinghua Center in Beijing.
RFI : What might be the content of this Chinese “peace plan” for Ukraine?
Zhao Tong : The purpose of this document is first of all to convey China’s desire to contribute to the peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. It is mainly aimed at Europe and other countries than the United States. This is to demonstrate that China’s foreign policy is peaceful, and to display the image of a large, responsible and powerful country. The document therefore probably focuses on issues of general and essential principles in the eyes of Beijing, but I fear that there is no more precise and specific content.
Can China really play the role of mediator as relations between Beijing and Moscow strengthen?
There are significant differences of opinion between China and Western societies regarding the perception of the causes of the war in Ukraine and its nature. China believes that the main culprit for the war in Ukraine is the US-led West, and that after the outbreak of the conflict, the West tried to use the war to weaken Russia and achieve its geostrategic objectives. This is why, above all, China does not want a total defeat of Russia in this war. China fears that if Russia pulls out in defeat, this political, economic and military pressure from the West will then focus on China as the next target. In defending its interests, China tries to achieve a balance between two objectives: on the one hand to stabilize and improve its relations with the West, and on the other hand to maintain and even continue to deepen its strategic partnership with Russia. These two strategic objectives are to some extent in conflict with each other, which severely limits the space that China can exercise in a possible mediation on the Ukrainian question.
What do you think of Antony Blinken’s accusation that China is considering supplying weapons to Russia?
The red line that China has set itself is to avoid a complete defeat of Russia. If the Russian army is defeated, the political situation in Russia could become unstable, with even the possibility of the emergence of a leader close to the West. If that were the case, instead of joining forces with China to face the common enemy they both currently face, Russia would join the side of the West. Taking these elements into account, I think that China will have more incentive to help Russia, if the war evolves in a direction unfavorable to Moscow. On paper, you cannot rule out that China might consider providing more substantial aid to Russia in the future.