The Ifo survey, conducted in October among German companies, reveals that many companies in the industrial sector have been able to adapt in order to reduce their gas consumption, without reducing their production.
- Of the companies surveyed, 59% use natural gas in their production process.
- Of these, 75% said they had saved gas without reducing their production, 14.1% had to reduce their production in order to use less gas and 7.4% had taken no action to reduce their consumption.
Survey responses, however, indicate that German companies are less optimistic regarding the next six months. 41.4% of them believe that this dynamic will not be able to continue in the coming months, and 8% of respondents are unable to answer this question.
At the end of August, when natural gas prices on TTF contracts were reaching record highs, some German companies were forced to slow down or even suspend their production due to the cost of energy. Robert Habeck, Federal Minister for Economics and Climate, described the situation as “alarming”.
According to the latest OECD projections, German GDP is expected to grow by 1.8% this year, before contracting by 0.3 points in 2023.
- These figures are below the average for the euro zone, whose GDP should increase by an average of 3.3% this year and 0.5% next year.
- Latvia, the Czech Republic and Finland are also expected to experience negative growth in 2023, according to the OECD.
- Contrary to IMF October projectionsthe Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development predicts that Italy should have positive growth of 0.2 points in 2023.
Studies suggest that German consumers and industrialists have substantially reduced their gas consumption in response to the energy crisis. According to Oliver Ruhnau, Clemens Stiewe, Jarusch Muessel and Lion Hirth, the industry would have reduced its consumption by 19% in September 2022 compared to last year. Consumers consumed 36% less gas in September compared to last year – which, however, translates into low absolute values.
