2024-03-12 14:48:08
The Court of Auditors singled out in its annual public report, published Tuesday, the public deficit trajectory presented by the French government in the public finance programming law for the years 2023 to 2027, considering that it is “unambitious” and “fragile”.
Published on :
4 mn
The Court of Auditors singled out the government for its management of public finances in its annual report published Tuesday March 12, accusing it of an “improbable” initial scenario for 2024 and an “unambitious and fragile” trajectory for the public deficit.
On more than 700 pages, largely devoted to adaptation to climate change, around forty provides, as every year, an overall inventory of public finances. “We draw three observations, worrying, worrying, even very serious,” said Pierre Moscovici, first president of the institution, presenting the report to the press under the gilding of the Grand’Chamber.
One of them is that “compliance with the deficit for 2024” at 4.4% “is not acquired”, he warned, even with the recent cuts of ten billion euros in the budget of the State, taken into account in this report which gives a snapshot at the end of February 2024.
“The situation of our public finances is worrying. It seems all the more worrying, in light of the information we now have, on the means we will need to mobilize to adapt to climate change.” ~ @pierremoscovici
8/8 pic.twitter.com/po80pCDBJY
— Court of Auditors (@Courdescomptes) March 12, 2024
The Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, announced them in mid-February, at the same time as he lowered the French growth forecast for 2024 to 1%, compared to 1.4% when the budget was constructed – a “improbable” scenario from the start, considers the Court.
These cancellations of credits were “imperative” but risk not being “sufficient to maintain the trajectory of the deficit”, estimated Pierre Moscovici. In front of journalists, he affirmed that the magistrates of the Court were “not austere people who want to cut everything”, but that it was necessary to have “an intelligent and subtle approach to public spending”.
“Fragile” deficit trajectory
Because any delay taken this year “risks weakening, or even rendering obsolete, the trajectory” of returning the deficit below 3% in 2027, notes the report, which does not take into account the upward revision last Wednesday, of the 2023 public deficit, the government now estimating it “significantly” above the objective of 4.9% of GDP.
For the moment, Bercy has not revised its short or long term deficit objectives. But with the delay accumulated in 2023, “the gap to be closed is even greater”, warns the president of the Court of Auditors.
The trajectory between now and 2027, ratifying a 17.2 billion euros Social Security deficit, is considered “unambitious” and “fragile”, according to the institution. It “does not include any room for maneuver in the event of a less favorable scenario”, the report warns, judging the government forecasts of growth and full employment to still be optimistic.
On France Culture, Pierre Moscovici judged the 20 billion euros in savings in 2025 for all public finances, announced Wednesday by the government and not taken into account in the report, to be “reasonable”. But he stressed to the press that they are, as for the rest of the 50 billion euros in savings necessary by 2027, “at this stage not documented or substantiated”.
According to the Court of Auditors, these savings will be “all the more difficult” to achieve as “the increase in interest charges and numerous sectoral programming laws (Defence, Justice, Interior, Research) already direct public spending towards increase”, in addition to future spending on the ecological transition.
Debt podium
If the State nevertheless maintains the deficit forecast for 2024, public finances will however remain “in 2024 among the most degraded in the euro zone”, warns the Court, risking exposing France “to difficult discussions with the Commission and its European partners”, including within the framework of the new rules currently under discussion.
With public debt forecast at 109.7% of GDP in 2024 and 108.1% in 2027, “we are firmly established on the podium of the three most indebted countries in the euro zone”, with Greece and Italy, regrets Pierre Moscovici. And with the rise in interest rates, this debt “costs more and more”, becoming “suffocating”.
Its jurisdiction therefore recommends “selectivity in spending and offsetting any additional spending or tax reduction with savings or increases in revenue”, and to prepare for “ambitious reforms”.
“There are considerable efforts to be made”, affirms Pierre Moscovici, the next finance bill (PLF) will be “the most difficult to achieve since the financial crisis”, requiring “courage and political will”.
1710293356
#France #Court #Auditors #scrutinizes #government #public #finance #forecasts
