The triumph of ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sunday, October 30, celebrated around the world as that of democracy over the far right and authoritarianism, is historic in many respects. After two consecutive terms between 2003 and 2011 and five hundred and eighty days in prison, Lula returns to power for a third term, unheard of in Brazil.
It is however a half-hearted victory. The small difference in votes with his rival, Jair Bolsonaro – who had still not recognized his defeat on Monday evening –, the victory of Bolsonarist candidates in many states and the composition of the Congress resulting from the legislative elections of October 2 place the former trade unionist steelworker in an awkward position. According to the opinion of many observers, she might severely limit her room for maneuver and make this third term a path strewn with pitfalls.
The president-elect will first have to deal with the fact that 14 of the country’s 27 governors will be in opposition, including the states of Sao Paulo, Rio and Minas Gerais, which are home to more than a third of the population. In Congress, then, the parties allied with Bolsonaro elected 187 deputies (including 99 for the Liberal Party of the outgoing president alone, which becomes the first force in the lower house), or 36% of the 513 seats. Opposite, the PT and its allies will have 108 seats (21%).
For four years, Bolsonarism has been consolidated, well beyond the single figure of Bolsonaro, and has become a real political force that Lula will not be able to ignore. “Brazil has become much more conservative, points out Mauricio Santoro, researcher attached to the State University of Rio de Janeiro. And Lula will have to face a strong, well-organized right-wing opposition, with the capacity to mobilize in the streets. »
A very different context from those of his first two terms of office
A situation very different from that which prevailed during his first two terms, when Lula had to face above all the Party of Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB), which respected democratic rules. “We were happy when our opponents were the PSDB, and we didn’t know it”, Lula often repeated during the campaign. “We are witnessing the replacement, in Congress, of traditional executives from the center right and from the “Centrao” [« gros centre », agrégat de formations politiques opportunistes et sans idéologie] by YouTube and Twitter influencers, whose culture is one of exhibitionism and constant confrontation,” points out Mathias Alencastro, researcher at the Brazilian Center for Analysis and Planning.
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