2023-04-19 18:34:58
1. Macro
◆Main indicators (stock/bond/dollar/crude oil/gas/coin)
The three major indices start with a downtrend
Bond interest rates rise..10y 3.6% 2y 4.2%
Oil falls on fears of slowing demand
Gold falls below 2000, coin plummets
US MBA Mortgage Index
U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates
Rise in 5 weeks•••6.43%
Declining weekly mortgage applications
8.8% down from weekly
New York Chinese secret police caught
New York Chinatown Fellowship
Chinese secret police? FBI Caught
China is a ‘service center’
Continued US-China rupture
UK CPI/Europe CPI+Goldman Europe Outlook
UK CPI above expectations
10.1% (9.8%) per year 0.8% (0.5%) per month
Food upside is strong for energy
Big spikes in gas, dairy, bread, fruit, etc.
Both core CPI and PPI exceeded expectations
Europe meets expectations… Core CPI Monthly 1.3% (1.2%)
Goldman: “Europe’s final interest rate will be higher”
3.5% at the beginning of the year -> 3.75%
“The banking crisis has subsided, and inflation is strong.”
Possibility of weighing 25-50bp hike in May
JP-Citi raises China outlook
Fear of additional Fed/World interest rate hike + coin drop
Concerns over further interest rate hikes around the world
Europe 3.75%, US 5.25% forecast
Raphael Bostic “25bp raise,
will last for quite some time”
Jeseong Yoon CIO “The variable of BOJ’s YCC termination”
“China’s export setbacks, US recession… Korea concerns”
IMF predicts recession in UK and Germany in 2023
The embarrassing situation in Korea.. The exchange rate soared
Concerns over Fed rate hike path
Bitcoin soaring below $30,000
Attention is also paid to the congressional hearing coin
SEC Chairman “Is it securities, the answer is difficult”
◆(10:30) EIA Crude Oil Inventory
Unexpected rise in crude oil inventories
downward pressure on crude oil prices
◆(Schedule) John Williams, scheduled to give a speech by President Goolsby
2. Performance
◆(All day) Netflix/United Airlines
Netflix (NFLX) Earnings Announcement
Sales of 8.16 billion and EPS of $2.88
Netflix adds 1.7 million subscribers
Wall Street estimates 2.3 million in the first quarter
Discontinued DVD rental division
Netflix cleans up following 25 years
“archyde news plan, 95% access to content”
The account sharing block will be expanded in the second quarter.
Netflix’s second quarter earnings forecast
Sales 8.24 billion EPS $2.84
UBS raises Netflix investment rating
United Airlines sales of $11.4 billion (11.43 billion)
Saved with EPS -0.63 (-0.74)
“We will make profits during the peak season in the second quarter”
14-16% increase in sales, expected EPS of $3.5-4
+22% revenue per available seat mile
Demand forecast optimistic despite forecast of economic downturn
◆(Load) Morgan Stanley/ASML/US Bancorp/Ally Financial
ASML Earnings Release
Sales 6.74 billion, EPS 4.95 euros
Sales in China declined in the first quarter
“Sales will be solid for the remaining nine months”
Current order backlog of EUR 38.9 billion ••• exceeds demand
ASML CEO “20% of balance in China”
Semiconductor production cuts such as Samsung are variables
“Some companies are reducing CAPEX”
Morgan Stanley outperforms expectations
Revenue $14.52 billion (13.92 billion) EPS $1.7 (1.62)
Wealth Management Revenue +11%..”Net Interest Margin Increase”
“Add $110 billion in assets..Stocks, bonds strong”
Large banks excluding Goldman Sachs
JP, City, Wells Fargo, BOA Performance
Western Alliance’s performance
Revenue $550 million ($680 million) EPS $2.3 (1.97)
“Deposit balance of 47.6 billion dollars…stabilization procedure”
Net interest income also soared by 36%.. Stock price soared
US Bancorp also made $7.18 billion in revenue (7.15 billion)
EPS $1.16(1.1)
Ally Financial Revenue $2.1 billion (2.07 billion)
EPS $0.82(0.86)
◆(After market close) Tesla / Lam Research / Las Vegas Sands
Tesla earnings coming out
Estimated revenue of 23.78 billion, EPS of $0.85
what you know in advance
422,000 vehicles delivered in Q1
Although the number of cars in the first quarter is the largest in India, Changsha
Expensive cars sold less
Investor attention is
Operating margin change•••Cost reduction achieved?
Tesla lowers price ahead of earnings
6th car price cut this year
RBC Capital Markets cut target to $217
Point out the price reduction policy gross margin
price war in china
Semiconductor company Lam Research (LRCX)
Earnings announcement following the market close
LRCX projected performance
Sales of 3.81 billion and EPS of $6.52
Las Vegas Sands Performance After the Market Close
The re-opening casino stock effect
3. News
Bank Crisis Aftershocks + Resurrection of AT1 Bonds
Real estate stocks hit by tougher lending standards
S&P Real Estate Sector -30% vs 2021
S&P Office REIT Index -16% since March
“Downside risks to rising delinquency rates and vacancy rises”
Concern over next month’s interest rate hike
Opposition to “basic physical strength is strong”
AT1 Bonds Shake After the CS Crisis
Demand comes back…”Normalization procedure”
Start of layoffs at Big Tech (Meta/Disney/Amazon)
Big tech restructuring begins in earnest
Amazon department layoffs announced yesterday
Meta also restructured this week
Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram all cut
Execution of the 10,000 person restructuring plan announced in March
Disney to lay off 15% of entertainment next week
Big tech blocking the TikTok bill
U.S. administration bans TikTok
Big Tech started lobbying for mediation?
MSFT, Apple, etc.
IT Industry Committee “Please reduce the scope of the law”
“Give the government full regulatory powers.”
Most systems include Chinese technology
“Security takes precedence over normal trade rules”
TikTok targeting bill likely to continue debate
FOX to pay $780 million settlement
Aftermath of the news of ‘counting machine company’s manipulation of the presidential election’
4. Report
◆UBS “Stock ahead of peers”
Exxon Mobil ‘buy’ raised
Both upstream and downstream grow
“More than $17.5 billion buyback in cash”
“Able to generate higher cash flow”
Target price $144, 23% margin
◆Peloton ‘equal weight’ investment opinion
Macro turbulence, financial difficulties
Jefferies, Boulero ‘buy’ opinion
“Strong Growth, Cash Flow Opportunity”
BOA Nvidia target price 310 -> $340
“Industry benefits such as gaming and computing”
Pipe Sandler GE ‘Overweight’
“Positive medical device injection”
New York = Correspondent Jeong So-ram [email protected]
1681931786
#addition #price #cut #Tesla #performance #check #point #Jeong #Sorams #water #parsley
