In a double-locked China, the year of the coronation for Emperor Xi Jinping

Almost two years after the relentless containment of Wuhan, it is now the city of Xi’an, famous for its army of terracotta soldiers, which has found itself cut off from the world, since the discovery of a few hundred cases of Covid -19. Trapped, the 13 million inhabitants have been banned from leaving their homes since the end of December (except to be tested), and the authorities are struggling to supply them with food. In this anxiety-provoking climate, agents dressed as cosmonauts spread clouds of disinfectant in every corner of the city, and all connections by train or plane have been removed.

Faced, too, with the emergence of the Omicron variant, the only country in the world to apply the “zero Covid” strategy is again on high alert. The regime fears an outbreak of cases, a few weeks before the opening of the Beijing Olympics on February 4. Above all, he wants to avoid any destabilization of the country at the approach of a major political event: the XXth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), in the fall of 2022, which should crown Xi Jinping for a third term.

At 68, the president who, thanks to a modification of the Constitution in 2018, gave himself the possibility of remaining in office for life, will be, except improbable revolution, the first leader in decades to exceed ten years at the helm of the country. In doing so, he will free himself from the rules decreed by the former leader Deng Xiaoping, aimed at preventing a new dictator à la Mao from clinging to power.

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Sanitary wall

Once confirmed for at least five more years, whoever is also the CCP’s general secretary should continue the hard line he has established. This son of a “red prince” victim of a Mao purge has continued to strengthen his authority, silencing the slightest voice of protest. While asserting the place of China on the international scene and its desire to recover Taiwan.

Isolated since the start of the pandemic, the Middle Empire should remain folded behind its health wall until the fall congress, or even beyond if the pandemic continues. Quite a symbol, Xi Jinping has not left the territory since January 18, 2020. Foreigners authorized to enter the country are forced into quarantines of two to three weeks, and subjected to a battery of tests. And international flights have been cut to a pittance.

“With Chinese propaganda proclaiming that the success of the ‘zero Covid’ strategy reflected the superiority of the communist regime over Western democracies, Beijing has no choice but to continue this radical approach,” said Richard McGregor, researcher at the Lowy Institute, Sydney. Especially since the authorities have cause for concern: according to a recent study conducted by Hong Kong academics, the vaccine from the Chinese laboratory Sinovac does not protect against Omicron, even with three doses. “Very contagious, this variant constitutes a threat to Chinese strategy: it forces the authorities to push health restrictions even further, without guarantee of success,” adds Zhao Tong, researcher at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing.

If it led to the physical closure of the country, the epidemic only accelerated a process of ideological withdrawal that began in 2013, which manifested itself in a great distrust of foreigners – in particular NGOs and journalists. This did not prevent China, whose exports increased during the pandemic, from staying connected to globalization.

A very conservative leader

Another basic trend, Xi Jinping has brought several economic sectors to heel, including Internet giants like Alibaba. “The Communist Party is only at the beginning of a long-term strategy, which aims to strengthen the party’s power over the economy, in the name of a return to the ideals of socialism”, underlines Alice Ekman, researcher in charge of Asia at the European Union Institute for Security Studies. Whatever the cost: the regime did not hesitate to sacrifice the attractiveness of the financial center of Hong Kong in order to subject the territory to total control.

“The red emperor”, which dangles the dream of “common prosperity”, now summons the richest to contribute to the reduction of inequalities. “But the company will also be more reframed in its daily life. We are heading towards an increasingly strong cultural conservatism, under the impetus of a very “old school”, which calls for a return to a simpler way of life, ”continues Alice Ekman.

Any practice deemed deviant or “vulgar” is prohibited. After vilifying male celebrities with “effeminate” looks and limiting the practice of video games for minors to three hours a week, authorities have banned the national football team from wearing tattoos. The regime is also banning from social networks accounts glorifying ostentatious consumption, such as this Internet user who was showing off enjoying lobster in luxury suites.

The slowdown in growth is undoubtedly not unrelated to this stiffening. And Omicron further complicates matters. “This variant represents a huge challenge for the Chinese economy which already slowed down sharply at the end of last year and will continue to do so in the first half of the year. And this, especially since the authorities have embarked on the restructuring of the real estate sector, over-indebted, which represents in total almost 30% of the GDP “, warns Alicia Herrero Garcia, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis.

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The other danger is the tensions with Washington, which have not disappeared with Joe Biden. Even if it seeks to become more autonomous, “China still depends on the United States and other Western countries for access to high technologies, summarizes Zhao Tong. If Biden maintains the restrictions on exports of this type of components, it will have a much harder time continuing rapid development. ” Longed for, Xi Jinping’s third term will not be easy.