The former Russian president and deputy head of the country’s National Security Council said, Dmitriy MedvedevWaving nuclear at the moment is no joke.
If the threat is explicit, then what remains, according to experts, is to know the possible ways for Russia to attack, that is, how it will strike with nuclear weapons, if it decides to make a major escalation that may constitute a prominent turning point in the war.
Four scenarios
Writer and academic specializing in nuclear weapons affairs, Joseph Quirence, presents four scenarios for an attack Russia With nuclear weapons on Ukraine or the West in general.
The writer, who is active against weapons of mass destruction, has previously authored a book called "Nuclear nightmares… Securing the world before it’s too late".
The writer acknowledges the difficulty of giving an estimate of the probability of a Russian nuclear attack, but it is likely to be in the range of 10 to 40 percent.
What is required, according to the nuclear expert, is to prepare a plan in advance in order to deal with a nuclear attack in the event that it occurs, and this is what the relevant US institutions are doing.
Since the beginning of the Russian military operations in Ukraine, US intelligence has been keen on alerting and monitoring any indication of preparing the nuclear arsenal for an offensive purpose.
Scenario one: a parade attack
In this case, Russia could drop a nuclear weapon on an uninhabited area, such as on the Black Sea, for example, and the goal is to show that Moscow is serious about its threats and is not about joking.
And if Russia does this, it will bet on frightening the West, in order to push it back, especially since the recent progress made by the Ukrainians is mainly due to the generous military support they received from Washington and its allies.
Experts say that this attack may not cause loss of life, but it will cause panic in the world, because nuclear weapons have not been used in battles for 77 years.
The United States would not have to respond militarily, in the event of such an attack, but Russia may find itself more isolated internationally, because China and India may have to go further.
The American expert believes that Russia will most likely not resort to this option, if it decides to attack, and the reason is that it will not bring great strategic and field benefit.
The second option: a weapon of limited power
Russia could also drop a nuclear weapon of limited power on a Ukrainian military facility, in a move that could lead to hundreds and even thousands of deaths, along with heavy material losses.
In this case, Russia may resort to hitting one of the warheads weighing up to 10 kilotons, by means of missiles "cruise" It is being launched from ground platforms.
Among these missiles that may be relied upon is a missile "Alexander" Which was used extensively in wars, through conventional warheads.
In the event of such an attack, a massive explosion equivalent to an explosion of 10,000 tons of explosive material would be heard, but this range remains limited from a nuclear perspective.
The weight of the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima reached 15 kilotons, while the weight of most nuclear warheads in the armies of the United States and Russia, an average of between 100 and 1,000 kilotons.
Some experts believe that Russia has warheads smaller than this rate, perhaps in the order of only one kiloton.
This nuclear scenario is the most likely, according to the American expert, because it will not call for a response from the United States, even if some experts expect Washington not to remain silent.
And if Russia adopts this scenario, the United States may respond by providing more advanced weapons to Ukraine, in order to help it inflict more losses on the Russian army.
The third option: a weapon with great power
In this scenario, Russia might drop a weapon with a range of 50 to 100 kilotons, three to six times more than the Hiroshima bomb.
And if this attack occurred, tens of thousands of people could die, while the nuclear radiation would spread widely.
If the attack targets the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, this means the automatic liquidation of the country’s political leadership, and this extent will call for a response from the United States and NATO. "NATO"But the response will not necessarily be nuclear.
Washington may respond with its allies, by directing strong and precise strikes to the Russian forces located in other regions of Ukraine, something that it has refrained from doing until now, in order to avoid a slide that might lead to a third world war.
It is also possible that Western countries will launch powerful and targeted cyber attacks against Russia, in order to punish it for launching a nuclear attack.
Fourth scenario: a nuclear attack on NATO
This scenario is the least likely and even unlikely, according to the researcher, and if Russia does it, it will drop weapons on NATO targets in central European countries.
This attack can be launched via long-range missiles, or cruise missiles, which could lead to great destruction in NATO countries, in a way that the world has not witnessed since the end of World War II.
In the face of this possibility, experts say that the West may take an unusual step, in order to paralyze the Russians and make them unable to attack, such as by neutralizing Putin, for example.
The expert urges the preparation of a broad political response in order to deter Putin, and prevent him from crossing the red nuclear line, in Ukraine, or in the countries of Europe.
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And Russia recently threatened to use all means to defend itself, in reference to the possibility of resorting to nuclear weaponaccording to the Washington Post.
The former Russian president and deputy head of the country’s National Security Council said, Dmitriy MedvedevWaving nuclear at the moment is no joke.
If the threat is explicit, then what remains, according to experts, is to know the possible ways for Russia to attack, that is, how it will strike with nuclear weapons, if it decides to make a major escalation that may constitute a prominent turning point in the war.
Four scenarios
Writer and academic specializing in nuclear weapons affairs, Joseph Quirence, presents four scenarios for an attack Russia With nuclear weapons on Ukraine or the West in general.
The writer, who is active against weapons of mass destruction, has previously written a book entitled “Nuclear Nightmares… Securing the World Before It’s Too Late.”
The writer acknowledges the difficulty of giving an estimate of the probability of a Russian nuclear attack, but it is likely to be in the range of 10 to 40 percent.
What is required, according to the nuclear expert, is to prepare a plan in advance in order to deal with a nuclear attack in the event that it occurs, and this is what the relevant US institutions are doing.
Since the beginning of the Russian military operations in Ukraine, US intelligence has been keen on alerting and monitoring any indication of preparing the nuclear arsenal for an offensive purpose.
Scenario one: a parade attack
In this case, Russia could drop a nuclear weapon on an uninhabited area, such as on the Black Sea, for example, and the goal is to show that Moscow is serious about its threats and is not about joking.
And if Russia does this, it will bet on frightening the West, in order to push it back, especially since the recent progress made by the Ukrainians is mainly due to the generous military support they received from Washington and its allies.
Experts say that this attack may not cause loss of life, but it will cause panic in the world, because nuclear weapons have not been used in battles for 77 years.
The United States would not have to respond militarily in the event of such an attack, but Russia may find itself more isolated internationally, because China and India may have to go further.
The American expert believes that Russia will most likely not resort to this option, if it decides to attack, and the reason is that it will not bring great strategic and field benefit.
The second option: a weapon of limited power
Russia could also drop a nuclear weapon of limited power on a Ukrainian military facility, in a move that could lead to hundreds and even thousands of deaths, along with heavy material losses.
In this case, Russia may resort to hitting one of its 10-kiloton warheads, via “cruise” missiles launched from ground platforms.
Among these missiles that may be relied upon is the “Iskander” missile, which has been extensively used in wars, using conventional warheads.
In the event of such an attack, a massive explosion equivalent to an explosion of 10,000 tons of explosive material would be heard, but this range remains limited from a nuclear perspective.
The weight of the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima reached 15 kilotons, while the weight of most nuclear warheads in the armies of the United States and Russia is between 100 and 1,000 kilotons.
Some experts believe that Russia has warheads smaller than this rate, perhaps in the order of only one kiloton.
This nuclear scenario is the most likely, according to the American expert, because it will not call for a response from the United States, even if some experts expect Washington not to remain silent.
And if Russia adopts this scenario, the United States may respond by providing more advanced weapons to Ukraine, in order to help it inflict more losses on the Russian army.
The third option: a weapon with great power
In this scenario, Russia might drop a weapon with a range of 50 to 100 kilotons, three to six times more than the Hiroshima bomb.
And if this attack occurred, tens of thousands of people could die, while the nuclear radiation would spread widely.
And if the attack targets the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, this will mean the automatic liquidation of the country’s political leadership, and this extent will elicit a response from the United States and NATO, but the response will not necessarily be nuclear.
Washington may respond with its allies, by directing strong and precise strikes to the Russian forces located in other areas of Ukraine, something that it has refrained from doing until now, in order to avoid a slide that might lead to a third world war.
It is also possible that Western countries will launch powerful and targeted cyber attacks against Russia, in order to punish it for launching a nuclear attack.
Fourth scenario: a nuclear attack on NATO
This scenario is the least likely and even unlikely, according to the researcher, and if Russia does it, it will drop weapons on NATO targets in central European countries.
This attack can be launched via long-range missiles, or cruise missiles, which could lead to great destruction in NATO countries, in a way that the world has not witnessed since the end of World War II.
In the face of this possibility, experts say that the West may take an unusual step, in order to paralyze the Russians and make them unable to attack, such as by neutralizing Putin, for example.
The expert urges the preparation of a broad political response in order to deter Putin, and prevent him from crossing the red nuclear line, in Ukraine, or in the countries of Europe.