During the demonstrations last week, when supporters of the Shiite coordination framework came out in support of what they called “legitimacy” in the face of a sit-in once morest “political corruption” carried out by the Sadrist movement’s masses, in the Green Zone, there was a kind of relief following the end of the demonstration without the expected clashes.
The demonstrations last week came following months of mutual statements and an escalation of positions between the two sides, but they ended with the withdrawal of the framework for his supporters following minor skirmishes with the security forces gathered to protect the Green Zone, which allowed two weeks before the Sadrists to enter Parliament and remain in its region until now.
But the satisfaction did not last long, according to Iraqi analysts, who say that “everyone’s hands are still on the weapons,” at a time when the framework once more called for mass demonstrations in conjunction with Al-Sadr’s call for demonstrations that are “the largest of their kind.”
A researcher in Iraqi and international affairs, d. Haider Salman, said, “The situation is dangerous and has no negative consequences, and that all expected scenarios are bad.”
Salman added to Al-Hurra that the first scenario is an escalation of the escalation to the point of armed confrontation, adding, “At the moment we are talking regarding, each of the parties seizes his weapon and directs it to the other, and everyone is waiting for who will be the first to launch.”
The new calls witnessed another rhetorical escalation between the “minister of al-Sadr” known as Saleh Muhammad al-Iraqi, and the Sadiqoun parliamentary bloc, affiliated with the Asa’ib militia led by Qais al-Khazali.
— Minister of Commander – Saleh Muhammad Al-Iraqi (@salih_m_iraqi) August 15, 2022
In his tweet, the Iraqi described the bloc as a “liars bloc” and said that they were expelled from the current, and accused its members of being responsible for corruption in the Iraqi state and sponsoring the corrupt.
This description provoked the bloc and its leader, al-Khazali, who called for “non-challenging,” while his bloc responded more sharply.
– Qais Khazali (@Qais_alkhazali) August 15, 2022
#Honest_Sincere_Promise#fixed_on_the_covenant pic.twitter.com/fsgCKl6E5K
— Adnan Faihan Al-Dulaimi (@AdnanFihanAl) August 15, 2022
With this, researcher Salman says that there may be mediation by other components, from the Kurds in particular, and may result in dissolving parliament from within parliament and defusing the crisis, as “Sadr’s moves will not lead to the dissolution of parliament” alone because “the law must be Dissolution of Parliament from within it” for the time being.
The KDP warned of a “civil war” and called for dialogue to overcome the crisis.
The leader of the party and former Iraqi Foreign Minister, Hoshyar Zebari, said that the civil war does not usually happen by a decision of the leaders, but “as a result of isolated and sporadic incidents of violence by field leaders,” and warned that “the current political tension between the Shiite forces, the framework, and the current has reached its peak.” It must be prevented.”
Civil wars do not happen by leadership decisions. The Kurdish war in 1994 did not start by a decision of Messrs. Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani. But isolated and sporadic incidents of violence by field leaders were the cause. The current political tension between the Shiite forces, the framework and the current, has reached its climax and must be prevented. Let us learn from history.
— Hoshyar Zebari (@HoshyarZebari) August 15, 2022
However, other Iraqi analysts say that al-Sadr recently lowered the ceiling of his demands, by calling for early elections instead of “revolutionary change to the constitution and laws,” according to political analyst, Muhammad Aziz.
Aziz told Al-Hurra that “Al-Sadr reduced the ceiling of his demands from a complete change of the constitution to holding early elections, which is a feasible condition, especially since the coordinating framework demanded it in the past.”
“But the idea that al-Sadr described the upcoming demonstrations as the last opportunity may be important in the event that al-Sadr actually gathers large numbers of supporters to demonstrate in a way that makes him raise the ceiling of demands once more.”
The Sadrists, according to Saleh Muhammad al-Iraqi, demand the reform of the system “in all its details,” and al-Iraqi said that “the judiciary building is a red line” and demanded his followers not to “encroach” on the security forces and the popular crowd.
— Minister of Commander – Saleh Muhammad Al-Iraqi (@salih_m_iraqi) August 15, 2022
The Iraqi journalist, Omar al-Jaffal, says that it is likely that early elections will go, but with conditions in which the coordination framework and the Sadrist movement make concessions to reach a date for the poll.
But Al-Jaffal says that “the holding of the elections is the real problem, because the framework and the current will mobilize, and they will use violence and fraud to win the elections,” he says.
Al-Jaffal added, “What is happening in the street now is easy, compared to what can happen in the elections,” adding: “But, in all cases, the state and its system are now the capital of these forces, and they will not sacrifice them for the sake of complete hegemony if they feel that they will lose it and lose their shares in it. If you fight.”