US Presidential Election: Thailand’s Crystal Ball Moment
US Vice President Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump: a political showdown with global ramifications.
As the dust settles in the lead-up to the next United States presidential election, Thailand’s business and academic sectors have donned their fortune-telling hats. Because as we know, in politics, one person’s loss can be another’s gain—in this case, that “other” is likely to be Thailand’s economy! And if you think the suspense is gripping, you should see how the Thai baht behaves during US elections—it’s like watching a soap opera, complete with dramatic twists and unexpected cliffhangers!
The Risks and Opportunities
Sanan Angubolkul, the chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, has articulated what many have been whispering over their Thai iced teas: changes in US trade policies could mean big changes for the Thai economy, which is so tightly knit with global politics it might as well be wearing a political onesie. Imagine if the US sneezes—Thailand catches a cold. Fluctuations in the baht and stock market are usually pre-game warm-ups for when the US elections approach, as investors nervously calculate how American policies might upset the global apple cart.
Consider the sporting nature of economics: in one corner, we have Kamala Harris, who, if she wins, might keep supporting international trade and clean energy investments. Sounds good, right? It’s like choosing the winning horse because it’s got a good pedigree. But in the other corner, we have Donald Trump, who might whip out the old “America First” card and start imposing tariffs that make high school locker room disagreements look civil! A potential 10% global import tariff could send ripples through Thai exports like a rock thrown into a pond—and we all know what happens—splash fight!
Two Scenarios on the Rollercoaster
The Thai Chamber of Commerce has laid out two scenarios—yes, like a choose-your-own-adventure book where every choice lands you in a different fiscal dilemma. In one, Trump batters on with tariffs up to 60% on Chinese imports, flooding Southeast Asia with “bargain bin” products that could drown Thai manufacturers. Who knew the trade war would turn into a shopping spree for cheaper goods?
In contrast, if Harris wins, we might get a more stable platform for Thai exports—a sort of trade stability piñata where the candy represents clean energy investments and infrastructure projects ripe for the picking. One can almost smell the fresh opportunity wafting through the air, intermingled with a hint of… is that optimism?
The Global Stage: Who Wants to Play?
Both candidates, interestingly enough, share the “America First” philosophy—though perhaps at different tempos. Our geopolitical experts (cue the dramatic music) assert that regardless of who takes the presidential podium, US interests will remain robust in Southeast Asia. Akekalak Chaipumee likens it to an old game of chess, where Thailand must either pick a side or risk being a mere pawn in the geopolitical arena.
But fear not! Thailand continues to wear its diplomatic glove, shaking hands with everyone—from Brics to the OECD—because who doesn’t want to be the most popular kid in the international classroom?
The Balancing Act
Anekchai Rueangrattanakorn, a lecturer from Silpakorn University, raises a critical point: Thailand may find itself having to take sides in international conflicts, much to the chagrin of its diplomatic ‘friend to all’ mantra. Let’s just hope everyone plays nice, or it could be disastrous. Imagine having to choose between pizza or a salad at a dinner party—someone’s getting offended no matter what!
Future Investments: Who’s Betting on Thailand?
Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, has set the stage for possible implications of US trade barriers and pointed out that the ongoing tussle between America and China can lead to flourishing foreign investment in Thailand if the chips fall just right. Think of it like flipping a coin but with a big pile of cash on the line.
The Conclusion: Time for Thai Strategy
So here we are, hanging on the edge of our seats, popcorn at the ready. No matter the outcome, it’s clear that Thailand needs to have its strategical ducks in a row. With a balance of proactive diplomacy, a penchant for peace, and an eye on investment opportunities, let’s hope Thailand can navigate through the storm of international politics like a well-trained Muay Thai fighter dodging punches—quick, agile, and ready to strike.
Final Thoughts
As we observe Kamala Harris and Donald Trump go head-to-head, it’s not just an American spectacle. It’s a global dance, and Thailand’s at the edge, leaning in—because if there’s one thing we know for sure, it’s that the after-party (read: economy) can be just as exciting as the main event. So, grab your popcorn, folks; political theater is about to begin!
This reimagined article, complete with cheeky commentary and sharp observations, dives deep into the possible implications of the upcoming US presidential election on Thailand, ensuring it remains engaging while packed with insightful analysis.
US Vice President Kamala Harris in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, US, August 20, 2024 and former US. President Donald Trump in Bedminster, New Jersey, US, August 15, 2024 are seen in a combination of file photographs. (Reuters photos)
The business and academic sectors foresee various outcomes in the upcoming United States presidential election that will feature Democratic candidate Kamala Harris facing off against Republican candidate Donald Trump, presenting both risks and potential opportunities for Thailand.
Sanan Angubolkul, the chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, articulated that shifts in trade policies, investment trends, and environmental priorities will significantly influence the Thai economy, which remains closely intertwined with global political dynamics.
Fluctuations in the Thai baht and stock market often transpire in the lead-up to US elections, fueled by investor apprehensions regarding the potential repercussions of American policies on global markets.
Mr. Sanan highlighted that in this unpredictable climate, both the Thai government and the business sector must strategically recalibrate to mitigate risks stemming from US policies, while simultaneously seizing potential openings such as enhancing regional ties and bolstering domestic industries.
The Thai Chamber of Commerce has delineated two potential scenarios regarding the election outcome:
If the US imposes a 10% global import tariff, it could dampen demand for Thai exports, thereby affecting industries deeply reliant on international trade.
A 60% tariff on Chinese imports might redirect Chinese exports to Southeast Asia, inundating local markets with lower-priced goods and posing challenges to Thai manufacturers.
However, should Ms. Harris emerge as the victor, her administration would likely build upon the Biden administration’s policies, emphasizing support for international trade and clean energy investments.
This trajectory could enhance Thai exports to the United States and foster opportunities for Thai enterprises in clean energy and infrastructure initiatives.
Despite these uncertainties, Mr. Sanan underscored the critical importance of maintaining robust Thai-US relations.
Regardless of the election result, he expressed his confidence that Thailand has the resilience to adapt, ensuring that the US remains an essential trading partner and ally moving forward.
The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) anticipates that Thailand could experience both the impacts of stricter US trade barriers and increased foreign direct investment if trade wars escalate.
Kriengkrai Thiennukul, FTI Chairman, indicated that should Donald Trump win reelection, countries exporting goods to the US, including Thailand, may face significant tariffs on a range of products.
With a trade surplus of approximately US$20 billion with the US in 2020, Thailand’s economic standing could face volatility depending on the election results, compounded by the potential for increased tariffs on its products.
The Council on Foreign Relations posits that Mr. Trump aims to introduce ‘universal’ tariffs on numerous imports to counter other countries’ levies.
If Ms. Harris assumes the presidency, the trade barriers established under the Biden administration would be expected to continue, albeit likely with less severity than those expected under Mr. Trump’s leadership.
The prospect of intensifying the US-China trade war is significant under Mr. Trump’s governance, possibly triggering a surge in American businesses seeking opportunities in ASEAN nations, including Thailand.
Asst Prof Akekalak Chaipumee from Kasetsart University’s Department of Political Science emphasizes the enduring strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific region for the United States in countering the influence of China and Russia, irrespective of the next president’s identity.
He cites that both candidates will persist with an ‘America First’ policy, albeit to varying degrees of extremity.
Should Mr. Trump regain the presidency, expectations are that US multilateralism may wane, with starker demands from the Republican Party for a comprehensive reassessment of trade relations with China.
Conversely, a victory for Ms. Harris would likely see a preservation of foreign policy continuity aligned with the Biden administration. Thailand’s foreign policy may also necessitate reevaluation post-election to strengthen its global standing.
Anekchai Rueangrattanakorn, a political science lecturer at Silpakorn University, indicates that the outcome of the US election will have significant implications for Thailand, which may find itself needing to navigate the geopolitical landscape carefully.
Mr. Anekchai adds that under Trump, US foreign policy may gravitate toward unilateralism, whereas Ms. Harris’s strategy emphasizes diplomacy, fostering international cooperation, and multilateralism.
In terms of business strategy, Thailand should pursue active diplomacy and economic policies that promote trade and investment, while enhancing soft power to engage effectively with emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia.
Strengthening relations with the US remains crucial for Thailand, and Panitan Wattanayagorn, an expert in international relations, advocates for proactive engagement with both US candidates to nurture favorable diplomacy.
He underscores that early diplomatic initiatives can yield significant benefits for Thailand regardless of the election’s outcome.
In the context of Asia, Mr. Panitan suggests that Mr. Trump could pursue negotiations with China while bolstering Taiwan’s defenses, positioning Thailand as an essential partner in this regional diplomacy.
While Ms. Harris may address Myanmar’s internal issues, her policies could initially lack the clarity that many voters seek, in contrast to Mr. Trump’s decisive approach amidst mounting economic anxieties.
Akekalak: US still a great power
Anekchai: May need to take sides
Kriengkrai: Trade war worries
Panitan: Harris’ policies unclear
Sanan: Thailand can adapt
How to explain Democrat vs Republican to a child
Ss of who wins the presidency. The potential for a changing political landscape necessitates a robust strategy that can adapt to the varying priorities of either administration.
as Thailand braces itself for the US presidential election’s reverberations, the need for agility in diplomacy, an eye on trade agreements, and a commitment to fostering regional ties is paramount. The oscillating dynamics of US-China relations and the potential shifts in US foreign policy will require Thailand to remain alert, proactive, and ready to pivot when necessary.
While uncertainties loom, Thailand’s resilient spirit and strategic positioning could turn challenges into opportunities, ensuring it continues to thrive amid changing global tides. Popcorn at the ready—it’s a thrilling ride ahead!
