The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on January 31 revised down its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 by slightly increasing its forecast for global economic growth due to a “surprising recovery” in demand in the US and Europe, costs reduced energy and economy China reopens following the lifting of restrictions on COVID-19.
According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, global growth will still slow from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023.
However, the forecast level global economic growth This latest forecast was 2.7% higher than the forecast made in October 2022 with a warning that the world was at risk of falling into a recession.
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The IMF added that the world economy in 2024 is likely to accelerate slightly to 3.1% but still lower than the forecast made in October last year due to the comprehensive impact of central banks’ interest rate hikes. Stronger yields slow down demand.
IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said recession risks have eased and central banks are making progress in controlling inflation.
However, these institutions still need to do more to rein in prices, mitigating the impact of new disruptions that may arise from conflict in Ukraine and the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in China.
In its 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast, the IMF thinks that US GDP growth might reach 1.4%, up from the 1.0% forecast made in October 2022. Last year, US GDP growth reached 2.0%.
According to the IMF, the euro area is also experiencing similar growth, with growth in 2023 forecasted at 0.7%, compared with a forecast of 0.5% in October last year.
In 2022, the Eurozone economy will grow by 3.5%. The IMF believes that Europe has adapted to high energy costs faster than expected and that the reduction in energy prices has helped the region.
Britain is the only major advanced economy that the IMF predicts will be in recession this year, with GDP shrinking 0.6 percent as households struggle with rising costs of living.
For China, IMF sharply revised the country’s economic growth outlook in 2023, according to which China’s GDP will increase from a forecast of 4.4% in October last year to 5.2% following the COVID-19 pandemic has passed China’s economic growth slowed to 3.0% – the first time China’s economic growth has fallen below the global average in more than 40 years.
However, according to the IMF, in 2024, China’s economic growth will slow to 4.5% before stabilizing at less than 4% in the medium term amid slowing business activity and the process of fundamental reform. structure slows down.
The IMF added that India’s economic outlook remains strong, with unchanged forecasts for 2023 growth falling to 6.1%, but recovering to 6.8% in 2024, similarly. like 2022.
Gourinchas believes that these two major Asian economies will contribute more than 50% of global growth in 2023.
Tran Quyen (VNA/Vietnam+)
