2023-05-19 11:03:00
The next global climate summit is not until November, but the preliminary shelling has already begun. Interesting, because the top is in the United Arab Emirates and the chairman is a director of the state oil company. Since that is known, there is a glass-half-full-half-empty discussion regarding this Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber. The glass would be half full because this unadulterated oilman might convince the fossil industry of climate action like no other. Or the glass is half empty: it is not expected that the new chairman will make a big point of burning less oil and gas.
Over the past few weeks, the glass is half empty. At the beginning of this month, negotiators from 40 countries gathered in Berlin for a first informal exchange ahead of the November summit. Al Jaber called on those present there to “phase out fossil fuel emissions.” That sounds pretty good, but to understand exactly what the man means here, a decent level of reading comprehension is necessary.
For example, he says ‘the emissions of fossil fuels’, not fossil fuels themselves. His plea was therefore accompanied by the promotion of means to make those emissions disappear. Putting it underground, for example, carbon capture and storage (ccs), or sucking directly from the air. They are both unproven, expensive technologies that are little used, but nevertheless show up a lot in the fata morganas of the fossil industry.
The reality is that dangerous warming can only be limited if much less fossil fuels are burned in the short term. This has been amply demonstrated by the scientific climate panel IPCC, confirmed by the energy agency IEA and forcefully presented to the world by UN chairman António Guterres. Not exactly controversial.
Very cleverly Al Jaber uses the word ‘phase out’, to phase out in not too nice Dutch. That also requires a bit of close reading. During the previous climate summit, COP 27 in Sharm al-Sheikh, diplomatic tempers ran high around the word ‘phase out’. Attempts by dozens of countries to include in the final text that the use of fossil fuels should be ‘phased out’ failed. Protests from Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia, among others, led to the idea of making it ‘phase down’. Don’t stop completely, just a little less.
Found creative. The coal, oil and gas dredging companies breathed a sigh of relief. Now Al Jaber seems to be making a strong statement by using the word ‘phase out’, but, as explained above, it concerns the emissions, not the fuels. It is actually an irritating meddling with words, which distracts from what it should be regarding: blowing fewer greenhouse gases into the air as soon as possible.
If this first get-together in Berlin is enough reason to declare the glass half empty, a disturbing message followed a few days later. The Financial Times revealed that a new club of oil and gas companies called the Global Decarbonization Alliance is in the making. From the COP28 team, this collaboration will receive a warm welcome and plenty of room to make its point at the top. That point basically means that the oil and gas companies mainly want to reduce the emissions associated with the production of oil and gas. A wonderful goal, were it not for the fact that 80 to 95 percent of the emissions caused by fossil fuels are released during use. Ignoring that does not make that alliance very credible when it comes to wanting to achieve the climate goals that the world previously set itself in Paris. There will be more introductory explorations like ‘Berlin’ to come. Hopefully they’ll go the other way.
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