Lrussia is stepping up its “pivot to Asia” as the United States initiated in 2011, but under different circumstances. Barack Obama had moved away from the Middle East and its endless conflicts to take advantage of the dynamism of the Asian continent; Vladimir Putin turns his back on Europe forced and coerced. And not without risk, by his own admission. The Russian president admitted for the first time, Wednesday, March 29, during a government meeting broadcast on television, that Western sanctions « [pouvaient] really have a negative impact on the economy medium term ».
Since the start of the war in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the energy weapon has played a central role. Last year, hydrocarbons further inflated Russian budget revenues by 28%. Moscow has managed to “redirect the entire volume of exports [de pétrole] affected by the embargo” in force since December 5, assures the Minister of Energy, Nikolaï Choulginov.
It won’t last. In February 2023, the barrel fell to 50 dollars (46 euros), far from the 80 dollars of Brent. Exploration-production spending will fall to $33 billion this year, $24 billion less than expected before the war, according to Rystad Energy.
Good news
For Russia, it is vital that China and India take over from the Old Continent, whose hydrocarbon purchases provided half of its budget. Deliveries to China, which is diversifying its purchases in the United States and Qatar, will not compensate for the 155 billion cubic meters forever lost in Europe. But energy executives are showering good news.
Boss of Rosneft and close to Mr. Putin, Igor Sechin indicated on Wednesday that his oil deliveries to India were going to “significantly increase”. The day before, Viktor Zoubkov, president of Gazprom, affirmed that the giant would soon reach its ceiling for gas deliveries to the Middle Kingdom (38 billion cubic meters per year) via the Force de Siberia gas pipeline.
If Mr. Putin wants to accelerate the pivot towards Asia, Xi Jinping seems less in a hurry. The Chinese president is dragging out the launch of Siberia Force 2, a pipeline linking the Yamal Peninsula to Chinese Xinjiang over 2,600 kilometers to deliver 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Presented in Moscow as “almost completed”, it was not agreed upon during Xi’s visit to Russia from March 20-22. This illustrates the lucid analysis of a source in the Kremlin quoted by the Financial Times : “Logic dictates that we become a Chinese colony for resources. » Everything indicates that the master of the Kremlin has lost the gas war.
