If Kyiv cannot fall, “Hong Kong” the southeastern part with Plan B
Will Russia move to a ceasefire by controlling Mariupol?
The Russian army’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, marked a major milestone in less than two months.
For Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mariupol, which is the key to achieving the goal of making the “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Luhansk People’s Republic” in the southeastern part of Ukraine an “independent state” under the umbrella of Russia, both in name and reality. It was essential to seize it.
It virtually subdued Mariupol.
It can be said that Putin, who wants to direct the victory toward the victory day of the former Soviet Union against Germany on May 9, is a result.
However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, “Ukrainian troops remain in part (of Mariupol).” US President Joe Biden is also skeptical that Russia is “suspicious” of whether it has actually taken control.
“Mr. Putin just wants to sue for victory against the ruins, even though the suppression hasn’t happened,” Mariupol’s mayor Petro Andrewschenko said on April 21. He claims that even after the declaration, he “continues to bombard the steelworks and fight away from the steelworks.”
The sparking information war between Russia and Ukraine, which is going on in parallel with the fierce battle, is likely to continue until the very end of the ceasefire.
More than 3 weeks until May 9th. On April 26, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres (former Prime Minister of Portugal) will travel to Moscow to discuss a ceasefire with Mr Putin.
Putin, who does not listen to the persuasion of Western European leaders, may have to accept him as a “mediator” if he is the UN Secretary-General.
Of course, I would like to prepare the “results” that will allow the ceasefire negotiations to proceed in an advantageous manner by then.