The events that targeted Syrian refugees in the Turkish state of Kayseri on Sunday, and the subsequent protests, including confrontations and acts of violence, in northern Syria were not “transient,” as experts and observers believe.
While the course of events on both sides of the border is moving towards a “cautious calm,” questions are being raised about the consequences and dimensions of the “dangerous rift” that has never been exposed in this way, despite the occurrence of previous and similar incidents.
After Syrian property in Kayseri was subjected, on Sunday, to acts of sabotage, smashing, and burning carried out by Turkish youths, areas in the Aleppo and Idlib countryside within areas controlled by the Syrian opposition witnessed events represented by attacks on Turkish drivers and the targeting of their trucks, on Monday.
The events in northern Syria developed little by little to the point of burning the Turkish flag and taking it down from the roofs of official institutions in Al-Bab and Azaz, which ignited anger that was translated by Turkish youths, on Monday, into incidents of assault in Gaziantep and other border areas.
Meanwhile, tension took a greater course in Afrin, where confrontations broke out between gunmen on one side and Turkish forces on the other, resulting in deaths and injuries.
It is not yet known who clashed with Turkish forces in Afrin, and whether the militants belonged to one of the military factions there, which has been receiving support for years from Ankara, in the context of its military operations there.
Regarding the assault incidents that Kayseri witnessed, the Minister of the Interior, Ali Yerlikaya, announced that they had arrested 67 people involved in “provocation” campaigns. He also said that they had launched an immediate and broad investigation, and its proceedings are still ongoing.
In turn, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement in which it added that “our country’s efforts and principled position to ensure the safety of the Syrian people are above any provocation.”
She continued: “It is not right to exploit the unfortunate incidents that occurred in Kayseri province, as a result of which our state launched judicial measures against those involved, as a tool for provocation outside our borders.”
What are the latest developments now?
According to journalists in northern Syria who spoke to Al-Hurra website, the areas under the control of the opposition factions, and in the Aleppo countryside in particular, are witnessing a state of calm, and this coincides with the Turkish side’s tendency to close the land crossings, the latest of which is the “Bab al-Hawa” crossing.
Despite the absence of signs of a renewed outbreak of tension, journalist Adnan Al-Imam said in his interview with Al-Hurra website that “no one knows where things will go.”
He says that the factions of the “Syrian National Army” deployed in the Aleppo countryside held a meeting on Monday with Turkish officials in the Kafr Jannah area, “and perhaps a decision to calm the situation was issued.”
Over the past few hours, reactions have varied between Turkish circles and Syrian opposition circles, and in the midst of all this, no party has presented an idea or proposal to clarify what events will lead to in the northern region of Syria or even on the situation of refugees in Türkiye.
Each side had an opinion, and while Turkish politicians and researchers rejected the incidents of attacks targeting Syrians in Kayseri, on the other hand, they called for the necessity of “working to bring them back because they constitute a national problem.”
On the other hand, Syrian activists considered what happened in northern Syria to be a “reaction.” Although others agreed with this idea, they denounced and denounced “dealing in an unpeaceful manner,” in reference to the incidents of attacks that targeted Turkish trucks, the Turkish flag, and drivers.
“Bigger than the events in Kayseri”
In terms of the general scene and its details, what happened in northern Syria against Turkey appears to be closely related to what Kayseri witnessed, or even what other Turkish cities witnessed, in which the authorities began campaigns against “illegal immigrants,” as they put it.
However, according to experts who spoke to Al-Hurra website, the “rift occurring” has reasons beyond that.
Samir Al-Abdullah, director of the Policy Analysis Unit at the Harmon Center for Contemporary Studies, believes that what happened on Monday “is a natural result of the situation that northern Syria has reached, of factionalism, security chaos, marginalization, and lack of development.”
In addition to “discrimination based on race, loss of hope and other challenges facing Syrians in that region.”
On the other hand, the events are related to “the state of frustration and disappointment with the recent Turkish positions, especially the statements of Turkish President Erdogan,” as Al-Abdullah tells the “Al-Hurra” website.
The Turkish President said, a few days ago, that Turkish relations with the Syrian regime could be restored, and even at the family level with “Mr. Assad,” as he described it.
This was preceded by “the Turkish desire to open the crossings with the regime, and the practical steps announced by opening the Abu al-Zendin crossing,” which connects the latter’s areas with the opposition in the Aleppo countryside, according to al-Abdullah.
The researcher also points out “the escalation in cases of forced returns to northern Syria, which have increased significantly in recent years.”
He adds that all of the above indicates that what happened in northern Syria “is not related to the recent Kayseri incident, which may have provided the spark that led to the situation exploding.”
“3 reasons”
The statements made by Erdogan and the head of the Syrian regime, Bashar al-Assad, last week showed that a new era could begin in terms of the normalization process between Ankara and Damascus.
This process began at the end of 2022, but stopped last year, due to Assad’s insistence on the condition of the withdrawal of Turkish forces from northern Syria before any dialogue process.
But Assad himself has retreated slightly over the past few days.
After meeting with Putin’s envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, he announced that he is “open to all initiatives related to the relationship between Syria and Turkey and based on the sovereignty of the Syrian state over its entire territory and the fight against terrorism and its organizations.”
Turkish political researcher, Omar Ozkizilcik, views the events that took place in northern Syria from the perspective that they are “not directly related to what happened in Kayseri.”
He told Al-Hurra website, “The Kayseri events are certainly the catalyst, but the main reason behind everything we saw can be summarized under three aspects.”
The first aspect is Erdogan’s statement towards Bashar al-Assad, and Ozkizilcik explains that his “unpositive” words greatly angered the Syrians, and led to them feeling “betrayed.”
The second aspect is related to “the frustration of the local Syrian population with the administrative situation in northwestern Syria.”
The Turkish researcher, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, says that the Syrians in the north “have a great deal of interest in administrative issues, the administrative lack of services, etc., and they hold Turkey responsible for that.”
As for the last aspect, which is the most influential from a practical point of view, it relates, according to Ozkizelcik, “the tendency of some instigators through Telegram groups to incite people in northern Syria against Türkiye.”
He continues: “We do not know who these instigators are working for, if they are working for the Assad regime, the People’s Protection Units, ISIS, Russia, or anyone else.”
Where is the situation going?
Turkish opposition parties are still pressing towards developing a clear road map to return refugees to their country, and the leader of the Republican People’s Party, Ozgur Ozil, confirmed on Monday that there must be a meeting with Bashar al-Assad.
In exchange for these calls, the Turkish government affirms that it continues to target “inciters and provocateurs” and the people behind the events that took place in Kayseri and in other areas of the country.
It also announced through the Minister of Justice, Yilmaz Tunç, that it had opened an investigation into the photos and recordings that documented people burning the Turkish flag in the Aleppo countryside.
In northern Syria, researcher Al-Abdullah points out that “there is a state of dissatisfaction with Turkey’s administration of the region in general, the continuation of factionalism and security chaos, discrimination among the residents of the region according to ethnicity, and other matters that led to a state of anger among the people.”
While he believes that the “rift” will not be complicated, especially with regard to the security aspect in northern Syria, he explains that “the rift that is still growing is a state of disappointment and loss of hope with Turkey, especially if the current Turkish policy of normalization with the regime and forced deportation continues, which will lead to the continuation of the situation.” Congestion and its explosion at any moment or reason.”
Al-Abdullah believes that Turkey must do a lot and, if there is a desire to do so, it is capable of reconsidering its policies in northern Syria, reforming the governance system there, controlling the security conditions, and promoting economic development in the region.
It must also “reevaluate its reliance on many Syrian figures and institutions, which have proven to fail, and that they have no influence on the Syrian street, whether inside Turkey or in northern Syria.”
“Powerful message”
What happened, according to the director of the Policy Analysis Unit at the “Hermon” Center, is “a strong message that has reached the Turkish administration, and we hope it realizes it, that it cannot impose any solutions in Syria that serve Turkish national security and Turkish interest only, and do not achieve the aspirations of the Syrians.”
Al-Abdullah explains, “The current Turkish policy is to prepare for the day following the American withdrawal from Syria, and this is what Russia is trying to convince Turkey of, and of the necessity of coordination with it and the Syrian regime in preparation for that day.”
But the possibility of achieving this matter is not great until the time of the American elections, and the Syrian regime has nothing to offer it in this file.
Therefore, “Türkiye may take several normalization steps with the regime, but then what happened with the Arab countries will be repeated, as it becomes clear to them the regime’s evasions and the futility of normalization with it,” according to the researcher.
Things are likely to calm down, according to Turkish researcher Omar Ozkizilcik.
But he says: “If the issues are not addressed, racist mob groups are not dealt with within the law, and Turkey continues to try to normalize with the Assad regime, we may see similar events occur.”