This March 9, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) reported that the La Niña phenomenon shows signs of dissipation.
This climatic phenomenon occurs when there is an appearance of cold surface waters on the tropical pacific, which causes an increase in rainfall in the Andean, Caribbean and Pacific regions of Colombia.
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Most of the forecasts explain that the anomalies in the sea surface temperature will be within the limits of neutrality, at least until the month of June, affirming that in that course of time the warm phase, known as the El Niño phenomenon, will not appear.
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According to reports from ideasduring the quarter between the months of May and May, Rainfall is estimated to reach averages similar to those recorded between 1991 and 2020.
(Almost $20,000 million, a figure destined for aid to agriculture due to La Niña).
However, results from other forecasts suggest that there would be regions in which these figures may be higher. These indicate probabilities greater than 45% that the normal threshold of rainfall in the north of La Guajira and in the northeast of the Amazon will be exceeded by 1 millimeter.
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While in other regions, the rains might decrease, since the areas with a probability of rainfall deficit greater than 45% are the center of the coast of the Caribbean region, the south of the department of Cesar, the west of Antioquia, in Norte de Santander, the coast of Valle del Cauca, the foothills and eastern Arauca.
Given this, the Ideam recommends paying special attention to the analysis of extreme rains, gales, hailstorms, flash floods, landslides, torrential floods, avalanches and floods during the first rainy season of the year.
BRIEFCASE