Welcome to the Saga Island Soap Opera!
Ah, Iceland – land of ice, fire, and political upheaval! It seems every time we think the dust has settled, someone builds a coalition and sends it tumbling like a giddy tourist on those slippery lava rocks. You see, prime minister Bjarni Benediktsson’s coalition government has resigned. Yet again! I mean, “internal strife”? That sounds like the motto of every family gathering across the globe!
The Rise of the Yes Party
So here we are, ready for yet another election because, apparently, the Icelanders just can’t get enough of the voting booths. It’s a political shift on the saga island! A classic case of rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, or should I say…Viking ship?
It looks like the Social Democrats are leading the pack with over 22 percent—great job, but not quite enough to throw a party on their own. Meanwhile, the Gjenreisning party is on the rise, which translates to “Reconstruction” in English, and boy, do they have some reconstruction to do! The former hippies from the Independence Party have wiggled their way to the second largest party status, waving their flags and whispering deep secrets about the EU.
The EU Dilemma: Will Iceland Join the Club?
Now, let’s dive into the juicy bit – the EU. Last time Iceland tried joining the party, it was like showing up to a rave with a fidget spinner. The Independence Party, God bless them, said “no way, José!” And fast forward to now: polls show that nearly three out of four Icelanders want a referendum. Three out of four! That’s based on actual statistics and not my cousin Jeff’s bar bets!
Kristrún Frostadottir from the Social Democrats makes a bold declaration: they won’t get in the way of a referendum. What’s stopping you, girl? Maybe throw in complimentary hot dogs and you might just have a full house!
A Coalition of the Willing
But wait, there’s more! No juicy political stew is complete without a third party being tossed into the mix. The Left Greens seem to be slipping through the cracks, and at just above 3 percent, they’re hanging on by a thread—like a pair of socks in a washing machine!
Experts like Per Christiansen are already predicting what happens when Iceland goes full throttle EU mode – it’ll create quite the kerfuffle for Norway. “Without Iceland, the EEA will only have Norway and tiny Liechtenstein,” he says. It’s like having a football match with just two players. Quite the showdown, isn’t it?
Loneliness in the Nordic Neighborhood
And oh, the drama! Norway would be lonely in the Scandinavian club if Iceland leaps aboard the EU ship. But hey, we all know their ministers are used to chatting with their imaginary friends by now!
To sum it all up, Iceland is in for another wild ride! With elections around the corner, the people have their work cut out for them debating: “EU, yes or no?” But one thing is certain—the shaggy-haired folks will keep us entertained with their political antics while we grab our popcorn. Will they join the EU and make Norway feel like the odd one out? Or will Iceland stay their peculiar, wobbly self?
Time to place your bets, folks! Grab those voting slips and let’s get this show on the road!
Icelanders are poised to cast their votes once again this Saturday following the resignation of Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson’s coalition government in mid-October, a decision driven by significant internal conflicts.
The political landscape in the Saga Island is undergoing a transformative shift.
The Yes party is climbing
The Social Democrats have emerged as the frontrunners in the latest polling measurements, boasting over 22 percent of support. However, this majority falls short, leaving them unable to independently form a government.
A striking development is the rapid rise of the Gjenreisning (Vidreisn) party, which has recently surged in popularity in the polls.
Established in 2016 by members who defected from Bjarni Benediktsson’s Independence Party, this right-liberal party emerged primarily over disagreements surrounding EU membership.
The Independence Party, once the dominant political force in Iceland, holds a firm stance against EU membership.
Currently, however, their support has plummeted to under 15 percent, marking a significant decline, with Gjenreisning overtaking them as the second largest party in the country, polling at around 20 percent.
Considers EU requirements
The composition of a potential new coalition government, likely to be led by the Social Democrats, remains uncertain, although Gjenreisning appears well-positioned to play a key role.
It remains unclear whether the party will push for renewed EU negotiations as a condition for joining the government. For the time being, party leader Thorgerdur Katrín Gunnarsdóttir has refrained from providing a definitive answer, according to reports from the Morgunbladid.
Bjørn Malmquist, a senior correspondent at state television RUV, emphasizes that the shift in Gjenreisning’s fortunes has intensified discussions around the EU in Iceland.
The Social Democrats are also advocates for EU membership, but they prefer to approach the topic with caution, as noted by Malmquist.
Don’t stand in the way
Iceland’s last application for EU membership took place in 2009, shortly after a tumultuous period marked by the collapse of several major Icelandic banks.
However, the negotiations were left unanchored by a referendum and were subsequently halted after a governmental change in 2013.
This summer, a notable opinion poll revealed that nearly three out of four Icelanders desire a referendum on EU membership.
Kristrún Frostadóttir, the leader of the Social Democrats, stated on RUV that they would not obstruct the possibility of a referendum.
She emphasizes the importance of having a substantial debate on the EU, noting that the process will require considerable time and engagement.
Speculation is rife regarding whether the upcoming elections could catalyze Iceland’s transition from the EEA to the EU, as the majority of citizens appear to support a referendum on the matter. Photo: AP / NTB
Falling out
It is likely that a third party will need to join the coalition, although its identity remains unclear.
According to PolitPro, numerous coalition configurations are possible.
Additionally, several parties appear poised to fall below the required threshold to secure seats in the Alltinget, including the Left Greens, historically associated with former Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir.
Current polling indicates the party may receive just over 3 percent of the vote, placing them well under the crucial 5 percent threshold.
Will follow for Norway
Legal expert and former EFTA court judge Per Christiansen has commented that should a referendum be held, there’s a strong possibility that Icelanders will vote in favor of EU membership this time.
This could lead to complications for neighboring Norway, especially regarding the EEA agreement, often considered essential for Norway, as detailed in an article in Dagens Næringsliv.
Should Iceland withdraw, the EEA’s composition would be reduced to just Norway and the diminutive Liechtenstein.
Eide: – There will be consequences
Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide (Ap) supports this view, stating that a potential shift in Iceland’s stance could have significant ramifications for the EEA agreement.
However, Eide clarifies that the EEA agreement is inclusive of all EU member states.
He explained that even if an EEA member transitions to the EU, their obligations toward the EEA remain intact, suggesting minimal disruption in principle.
– Gets lonely
Heightened EU discussions in Iceland are likely to reinvigorate the debate in Norway.
Heidi Nordby Lunde, leader of the European Movement and a Conservative Party member, affirms this sentiment.
She noted that if Iceland chooses to embrace the EU, Norway may find itself isolated within the Nordics.
How have recent polling data influenced the political landscape in Iceland regarding EU membership discussions?
Lity that Icelanders would lean towards EU membership, given the recent polling data indicating significant public support for such a move. However, he also warns of the ramifications this could have for Iceland’s Nordic neighbor, Norway, which has historically maintained a delicate balance within the EEA framework alongside Iceland.
As the countdown to the elections continues, the political tension is palpable. The Social Democrats have positioned themselves as proponents of EU discussions, while Gjenreisning and other parties are still hesitant to fully embrace the concept of EU membership, making coalition-building a tricky endeavor.
A Waves of Change
Icelanders are about to dive headfirst into one of the most consequential debates of their recent history. The prospect of joining the EU is stirring excitement and anxiety across the country, and the ramifications could rip through the current alliance of Nordic countries. It remains unclear exactly how this will unfold as votes are cast and the political mudslinging escalates. What is clear, however, is that Iceland is at a crossroads, and its citizens are prepared to make their voices heard.
This Saturday is shaping up to be more than just an ordinary election—it’s a referendum on the soul of Iceland itself, with the echoes of history swirling beneath the surface. Will they embrace change and leap into the EU, or will they secure their existing partnerships and hold their ground?
One thing is certain: the coming days will be filled with fierce debates, passionate discussions, and heated political battles as the saga of Iceland’s future unfolds. Grab your popcorn and prepare for a showfull of twists and turns! It’s going to be a wild ride!