The General Office of Accounting and Accounting announced today (18) that the real economic growth rate (GDP) in the fourth quarter of last year was estimated at -0.86%, which was a sharp drop of 2.38 percentage points from the November forecast, and it was also the first negative growth since the second quarter of 2016 , so that the estimated estimate of GDP for the whole of last year fell to 2.43%, which was revised down by 0.63 percentage points, and it is determined that “3” cannot be guaranteed.
The General Office of Accounting and Accounting stated that the GDP growth in the fourth quarter turned negative, mainly due to the fact that commodity exports were significantly lower than expected. Taking into account the GDP in the first three quarters was 3.87%, 2.95% and 4.01%, the GDP for the whole of last year was estimated to be 2.43% %, an annual decrease of 0.63 percentage points, a new low since 2017.
The General Office of Accounting and Accounting further pointed out that as inflation and interest rate hike pressures continue to suppress global terminal demand, the industrial chain is undergoing inventory adjustments, and the worsening epidemic situation in China interferes with consumption and production activities, external demand has weakened significantly, and goods and services in the fourth quarter of last year were significantly weaker. The negative growth of output was 5.09%, which was 5.14 percentage points lower than the forecast.
As for imports, due to the slowdown in the global economic and trade momentum, manufacturers are becoming more cautious in preparing materials, and the price of raw materials has slowed down, the import of goods and services in the fourth quarter has a negative growth of 1.61%, which is 2.55 percentage points lower than the forecast.
After the overall output and input are offset, the net foreign demand in the fourth quarter contributed 2.59 percentage points negatively to economic growth.
Fortunately, domestic demand is slowing down due to the epidemic, domestic consumption is gradually returning to normal, coupled with the gradual exemption of entry quarantine, cross-border tourism has picked up, and private consumption continues to expand. The Office of Accounting and Accounting estimates that private consumption in the fourth quarter grew by 2.89%, which is higher than the forecast 0.24 percentage points, contributing 1.29 percentage points to economic growth.
In the fourth quarter, government consumption grew by 3.14%, a decrease of 0.82 percentage points from the forecast, contributing 0.45 percentage points to economic growth; capital formation grew by 0.03% in real terms, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points from the forecast, and the contribution to the economy was flat.
The Accounting and General Office pointed out that domestic demand grew by 2.04% in the fourth quarter of last year, contributing 1.73 percentage points to economic growth.