WASHINGTON.— El Atlantic just entered the typical “peak” period of hurricane seasonwith the Gulf of Mexico with enough “fuel” to generate record storms and alarmingly warm ocean waters, The Washington Post warns in a report.
However, he adds, the Atlantic is silent And, according to experts, it is It is possible that not a single storm will form for the rest of this month. with name.
As September approaches, many are wondering when that ocean will “wake up” again.
Currently, the Atlantic is empty and, according to the National Hurricane Center, “No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next seven days.”
Peak hurricane season
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The “Post” recalls that historically, around Two-thirds of Atlantic hurricane activity It occurs between the August 20th and October 10th.
Forecasters are doubling down on their predictions for a hyperactive season, with enough named storms to exhaust the list of conventional appellations used by the National Hurricane Center.
Researchers at the Colorado State University They expect a season almost twice as active as average, according to a metric called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (A CE)which measures the amount of energy generated by storms over the course of a season.
Temporal breath
Experts point out that in the short termit seems that the calendar will pass to September without newsbut then the temporary respite will stop completely.
Storm activity is likely to increase as next month begins, with a surge of storms likely later in the month.
Factors in storm reduction
According to meteorologists consulted by the “Post”, the following A series of factors has reduced storm activity in these final days of August:
- Sahara dust. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) caused warm, dry, dusty air to spread over the eastern tropical Atlantic, slowing incipient storms and inhibiting their development.
- Tropical waves further north. Tropical waves are the “seeds” of tropical storms and hurricanes. They are expanding complexes of thunderstorms. At this time of year, many waves move along the coast of Africa and eventually develop into named systems. Lately, the axis along which the tropical wave line propagates has shifted farther north. That means the waves are rolling into a drier air mass over cold waters. That’s why tropical waves haven’t really been developing.
- Strong winds at altitude. Winds over north-central Africa have been stronger than normal from the east, contributing to an active monsoon (wet weather pattern) in that area. While monsoon moisture is generating more convection or thunderstorm activity, tropical waves are being broken up by strong winds aloft. That should change in the next week or two.
Four storms so far in 2024
The first named storm was “Alberto”which was not formed until June 19; then came “Beryl”and Category 5 hurricane which broke records and reached its peak intensity in the Caribbean on July 1; later, “Debby” hits Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 1 hurricane during the night of August 4-5, and “Ernesto”, Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane on August 17.
In total, the storms in 2024 already accounted for 45% of the amount that is produced in a normal season. Historically speaking, around 83 percent of the number of storms that occur in a season occurs after August 20.
#Hurricane #season #Atlantic #silent
2024-09-05 18:02:11
Understanding the Peak Hurricane Season in the Atlantic: Insights and Predictions
As we approach the typical peak period of hurricane season, which spans from August 20 to October 10, the latest reports indicate a complex and somewhat puzzling situation in the Atlantic. According to The Washington Post, while the Gulf of Mexico seems brimming with potential for record-breaking storm activity, the Atlantic itself remains unusually quiet.
Current Situation in the Atlantic
The National Hurricane Center reports no expected tropical cyclone activity in the coming week. This silence is surprising given that, historically, two-thirds of Atlantic hurricane activity occurs during this peak season. Experts remark that the Atlantic’s current inactivity may result in an entire month passing without a single named storm—an unusual occurrence during this time of year.
The Gulf of Mexico vs. The Atlantic
While the Gulf of Mexico presents significant “fuel” for potential hurricane formation with alarmingly warm ocean waters, the Atlantic has not yet capitalized on these conditions. Forecasters warned that the Atlantic is presently silent, leading to speculation about when the ocean will awaken and begin producing storms again.
Forecasts for a Hyperactive Season
Meteorologists from Colorado State University anticipate an exceptionally active hurricane season, forecasting nearly double the average activity level as gauged by Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). This metric measures the total energy produced by storms over the season and is a primary indicator of overall hurricane activity.
Despite the current lull, many experts predict that as September rolls in, the atmosphere may shift dramatically, leading to an increase in storm development as conditions become more conducive.
Factors Influencing Reduced Storm Activity
Experts attribute the current absence of storms to several key factors, which include:
- Saharan Dust: The presence of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has contributed to warm, dry, and dusty air over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This phenomenon suppresses the development of incipient storms, acting as a barrier that inhibits typical hurricane formation.
- Shifted Tropical Waves: Typically, tropical waves—vital ingredients for storm formation—are nurtured by thunderstorms moving across the coast of Africa. However, recent patterns have shown these waves moving further north, encountering drier air and cooler waters, which stunts their development.
- Strong Upper-Level Winds: Strong winds originating from north-central Africa have intensified the monsoon effect in the region, resulting in more benign thunderstorm activity while simultaneously disrupting the formation of tropical systems.
These factors create a temporary “breath” in storm activity, but predictions suggest a shift back to more active conditions as we transition into September.
A Recap of Storm Activity in 2024
As of now, the year has seen four named storms, starting with “Alberto” on June 19. This was followed by “Beryl,” a record-breaking Category 5 hurricane that peaked on July 1 in the Caribbean. The third storm, “Debby,” made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend area. Despite the slow start, the potential for more storms looms large with forecasted conditions changing.
Conclusion: What Lies Ahead
While the Atlantic remains unusually calm, the scientific community is keenly monitoring atmospheric conditions and ocean temperatures as we move further into the peak of the hurricane season. With an impending uptick in potential storm development, it’s essential for residents along the coast and stakeholders in hurricane preparation and response to remain vigilant.
Thus, as we transition into September, the anticipated increase in activity could reshape the outlook for this hurricane season, revealing whether the predictions of an active year hold true or whether this moment of calm will extend longer than expected.
Stay informed and prepared as we progress through what is already shaping up to be a historically noteworthy hurricane season.
