the caribbean of Colombia It is in suspense before the imminent passage of a potential tropical cyclone, with a high possibility of becoming a hurricane. The Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam) launched an alert given that it is highly probable that in the east and center of the Colombian Caribbean Sea and on the coast of Magdalena and La Guajira.
Winds are estimated to pick up in the next 48 hours tropical storm force which is equivalent to intensities greater than 63 km/h. Although uncertainty is still high regarding how the storm will evolve, which If it becomes a hurricane, it will be named following Bonnie.This is what is known regarding her so far:
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Why are the experts concerned?
Ideam, together with other instances of the National Disaster Risk Management System (SNGRD), reported that to date the tropical wave remains as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two with an 80% probability of formation within the next 48 hours.
This tropical wave worries Ideam and the National Hurricane Center due to its high probability of becoming, first, a tormenta tropicalwhich would mean that, in the next 48 hours, in the east and center of the Colombian Caribbean Sea and on the coast of Magdalena and La Guajira, the winds will be stronger than 63 km/h, with the potential to generate damage. .
How would it become a hurricane?
And hurricane is a natural atmospheric phenomenon that occurs when warm, moist air rises and cools, forming clouds. Subsequently, the entire system of clouds and air rotates and grows, being fed by the heat of the ocean and the water that evaporates from the surface.
Basically, emphasizes Emel Vega, professor and coordinator of the master’s degree in Meteorology at the National University of Colombia (Unal), the ocean stores a lot of energy that it receives, then releases it naturally and through a natural process it becomes eddies of air and wind that grow as they find more and more energy on their way.
Then, it starts out functioning as a tropical depression that grows and becomes a storm and at that moment it is assigned a name -which in this case would be Bonnie-, and then it grows until it reaches its maximum: being a hurricane (When it causes a lot of damage, that name that was assigned to it can no longer be used to name storms in the future, so a better historical record is kept).
How long would it take to become a hurricane?
According to the forecast cone, the probability to date is that around Friday, July 1, the cyclone might be classified as a hurricane over the western Caribbean Sea.
Although the Ideam announced that there is a higher uncertainty than normal in the forecast of the system, once it reaches the southwest of the Caribbean Sea between Thursday and Friday. Its behavior from there will depend on how much the system interacts with the continental area.
Where will the storm pass?
According to Ideam’s analyses, the conditions are favorable for the potential Tropical Cyclone Two evolve into the category of tropical storm located in the Caribbean Sea near the coast of Venezuela, and continue its transit to the center of the Caribbean.
Due to the above, it is expected that on Thursday it will arrive in the national territory, over the department of La Guajira or over the Caribbean Sea near this department.
How will the climate affect this region?
As a tropical storm, it is expected to generate torrential rains, thunderstorms with the possibility of sustained strong winds and gusts of wind.in sectors of the Colombian Caribbean Sea and in the continental areas of La Guajira, Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, Cesar and Magdalena.
In addition, intense rainfall is expected in some cases accompanied by electrical storms and the possibility of gales in sectors of Atlántico and northern Bolívar, as well as increased rainfall in Córdoba, Sucre, southern Bolivar, Santanderes, Arauca, Chocó and sectors of Antioch.
Therefore, IDEAM recommends being attentive to the possible effects of heavy rains with the probability of sudden floods, floods and landslides.
The height of the waves will also be affected by the passage of this system. This can be up to four meters in the Colombian Caribbean.
