2023-12-29 08:55:00
Yesterday and Thursday, we believed that the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve would drag down the trend of the US dollar and US bond yields, providing support for the rise of gold. However, short-term indicators were overbought, and we need to pay attention to the possibility of short-term adjustment of gold prices. Therefore, we recommend that everyone operate with Treat it with a shock mentality, be cautious in short-term pursuit of highs, and try to wait for a pullback to go long. The support below will focus on 2070 and 2060 US dollars, and the pressure on the top will focus on 2088 US dollars, followed by 2095 US dollars.
Judging from the subsequent trend, following gold encountered resistance and fell back from the intraday high of $2,088, it fluctuated at a high level in the range of $2,070 to $2,080 for a long period of time. Until the U.S. market closed near the end, the gold price fell below the support of $2,070, and fell as low as USD 2064 stabilized. At the opening on Friday, gold stabilized and rebounded, rising to $2,074 and currently trading around $2,073. Gold has made short-term adjustments. Be cautious when chasing higher prices and wait for a pullback to go long. This is basically in line with expectations.
Wolfinance star analyst Huang Lichen believes that gold has risen sharply in the past half month, mainly because the Federal Reserve unexpectedly turned dovish, acknowledged the slowdown in inflation, and made it clear that it will not raise interest rates next year, implying that the market will cut interest rates three times, with a total of 75% interest rate cuts. Basis points, the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have dragged down the trend of the U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields. The weak U.S. economic and inflation data released subsequently further strengthened the Fed’s interest rate cut prospects, suppressing the U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields to continue to fall. Provide important support for gold.
In terms of news, the latest news released is relatively light, mainly due to the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut that affects the market. The Federal Reserve’s dot plot shows that it may cut interest rates three times next year, with a total of 75 basis points. The subsequent U.S. third-quarter GDP data released was less than expected, and personal consumption support and PCE data fell. The PCE data continued to decline in November, further strengthening the Fed’s interest rate cuts. Investors have increased their bets that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates early. The latest forecast shows that the possibility of an interest rate cut in March next year has risen to 88%. This has suppressed the dollar and U.S. bond yields to a four-month low. Affected by the New Year’s Day holiday, news in the evening is still light, and the market will be closed next Monday. Gold is supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and is more likely to remain high and strong.
On the daily chart, gold bottomed out from around the 0.5 position between 1810 and 2144 US dollars. With the middle track of the Bollinger Bands as the key support, it started to fluctuate at high levels. After achieving an upward breakthrough, the 5-day moving average became the new short-term key support. The gold price during the day It rebounded accordingly and is currently running to around $2,065 (day low). The upper Bollinger Bands are running upward on the upper track, but the opening speed is slow, which limits the short-term upward space. Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week all encountered resistance here. As the gold price adjusts in the short-term, and the Bollinger Bands continue to rise, the next stage of upward movement will be opened. Explore space. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are golden crosses, and the MACD and RSI indicators are golden crosses. The short-term technology is still biased toward the long side, but the overbought zone of the KDJ indicator has begun to form a dead cross, suggesting that gold has a need for adjustment.
Gold intraday reference: short-term indicators are overbought, and gold has adjusted in the short term. However, supported by the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, gold prices are still likely to rise once more. In terms of operation, it is recommended to treat it with a shock idea. The lower support focuses on $2,065 (daily 5-day moving average). If it falls below the 5-day moving average, the short-term correction may continue. Continue to focus on $2,054 and $2,047. The upper pressure focuses on $2,080, followed by $2,088.
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