Huang Lichen: Gold prices are under pressure, pay attention to the $1680 resistance
In the Asian market on Monday, September 19, the international gold trend fluctuated and fell. The gold price opened at $1,676 in the morning, the highest rose to $1,679, and the lowest fell to $1,659. Currently, it is currently trading at $1,660, and short-term price fluctuations are weak.
Gold fell sharply last week, and the price of gold hit a new low of $1,653 since April 2020. Huang Lichen believes that the price of gold is under pressure, mainly due to the continued increase in the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September. The unexpected rise in the U.S. CPI data in August directly ruled out any possibility of the Fed slowing rate hikes in September. sex.
Expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates more aggressively have pushed the dollar to rebound sharply from a nearly three-week low, approaching the highest level in the past 20 years, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is approaching the highest in the past 10 years. The yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury bond, which is sensitive to interest rate hike expectations , setting a new high in the last 15 years, which increases the opportunity cost of holding gold and puts greater pressure on gold prices.
Gold prices bottomed out and rebounded last week, the dollar and U.S. bond yields rose and fell, U.S. stocks fell to a new low in nearly two months, and the geopolitical situation was still tense, which were the main reasons for the rebound in gold prices. However, although gold rebounded, the trend was still weak. , the price of gold rose and encountered resistance near $1680. This is the key support level of gold in the past two years before the price of gold broke down last Thursday. The rebound of the price of gold during the day also encountered resistance and pressure here, and continued to decline.
At present, the market has basically digested the Fed, and it is expected to raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points this week. Before the announcement of the Fed’s interest rate decision in the early morning of Thursday, it is expected that gold will continue to remain under pressure. After the announcement of the interest rate decision, if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 75 basis points, gold may appear in the boot market, that is, buy expectations and sell facts, and the price of gold will rise instead. , the price of gold may continue to be under pressure and test the integer mark of $1,600.
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Technically, at the weekly level, gold unilaterally fell, the moving average indicator was dead, the Bollinger Band was running downward, the dead cross below the MACD zero axis accelerated downward, and the KDJ and RSI indicators diverged, showing that the bears are very strong; Level, gold fluctuated and fell, the moving average indicator was dead, the Bollinger band opened downward, the MACD zero axis was divergent, the KDJ and RSI indicators were dead, showing that the bears had the upper hand. After the gold price fell below the key support of $1680, it continued The rebound test for the first trading day encountered resistance and pressure here, and gold formed a clear suppression here.
Overall, as the Fed raises interest rates by at least 75 basis points this week, and it may still maintain the expectation of aggressive interest rate hikes following the rate hike, the price of gold is under obvious pressure, and there is a risk of further dropping to new lows. In operation, gold is currently under pressure, maintaining a trend of fluctuating downwards to test new lows. Huang Lichen suggested that rallies should be shorted. The upper pressure should focus on $1,680, and the lower support should focus on $1,644 and $1,611.
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