How will Trump’s conviction within the “hush cash” felony case have an effect on the US presidential election? – BBC Information Chinese language

2024-05-31 08:04:42

• Anthony Zurcher
• BBC North America correspondent

Might 31, 2024 8:01 am

Picture caption,Trump campaigned on claims he was being unfairly prosecuted.

Former US President Trump was discovered responsible of all 34 fees within the “hush cash” felony case. The 12 jurors reached a unanimous verdict following two days of deliberations.

The courtroom heard testimony from 22 witnesses over six weeks, together with grownup movie actress Stormy Daniels. Trump is accused of falsifying paperwork earlier than the 2016 election to cowl up hush-money funds made by his former lawyer to Daniels.

Trump’s conviction marked a lot of historic “firsts” – he was the primary president of the US to be convicted of a criminal offense and the primary presumptive main social gathering nominee to be a convicted felon.

Trump plans to attraction the “hush cash” case, and the choose will impose a sentence on July 11, which can theoretically embody jail sentences and large fines, however it isn’t too early to think regarding its political impression. Nevertheless, this may also be troublesome because of the unprecedented nature of the occasion.

“We frequently look to historical past for clues to foretell what is going to occur,” stated Jeffrey Engel, director of the Heart for Presidential Historical past at Southern Methodist College. “However there’s nothing within the historic document that compares. Comparable.”

picture supply,Jane Rosenberg/Reuters

Picture caption,Former US President Trump was discovered responsible of all 34 fees within the “hush cash” felony case (image reveals Trump attending the courtroom’s felony trial).

Trump received the Republican presidential nomination earlier this yr and is scheduled to be topped on the social gathering conference days following the sentencing.

Polls present him in a statistical shut tie with President Joe Biden and holding on to slender leads in lots of the key battleground states that can decide the end result of the election. However these investigations additionally recommend that this conviction might change all that.

In exit polls carried out throughout the Republican major earlier this yr, double digits of voters stated they might not vote for the previous president if he was convicted of a felony.

An April Ipsos/ABC Information survey discovered that 16% of Trump supporters would rethink their continued help for him in such a situation.

Nevertheless, these have been primarily based on hypothetical convictions. On the time, he was dealing with 4 felony circumstances, together with allegations of conspiring to overturn the outcomes of the 2020 election and accusations that he mishandled labeled paperwork following leaving the White Home.

Now voters can base their judgment on precise convictions.

After leaving the courtroom, Trump stated, “The folks will make the actual judgment on November fifth.”

Doug Schoen, a pollster who has labored with Democratic President Invoice Clinton and New York Metropolis Mayor Michael Bloomberg, stated that American voters might be extra delicate to the hush cash case. The emotions might also be muted as a result of that was an occasion that occurred eight years in the past.

“Whereas being discovered responsible shouldn’t be a superb factor, what voters might be desirous regarding in November might be inflation, the southern border, competitors with China and Russia, and cash spent on Israel and Ukraine,” he stated.

picture supply,Recent Mike/Reuters

Picture caption,Trump was accused of forging paperwork earlier than the 2016 election to cowl up “hush cash” funds made by his former lawyer to Daniels (pictured are protesters holding placards).

However even a slight drop in Trump’s approval score is sufficient to have an effect on the end result of this presidential election. In key states like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, if just a few thousand voters who initially supported the previous president keep house, it might have a big impact.

“I do assume this may have penalties,” stated Ariel Hill-Davis, co-founder of Republican Girls for Progress, which has been attempting to distance the Republican Social gathering from Trump. have an effect on and injury his standing as a candidate.”

Younger voters, in addition to college-educated suburban voters, have been involved regarding Trump’s habits and the way in which he governs, she stated.

“These voters are actually hesitant to return to the facet of the Republican Social gathering led by Trump, and a responsible verdict will additional exacerbate these issues,” she stated.

However main members of the Republican Social gathering have been fast to once more Trump, with many attending the trial to point out their loyalty to the social gathering nominee.

Home Speaker Mike Johnson known as this a shameful day in American historical past and stated it was “purely a political act, not a authorized act.”

picture supply,Mark Peterson/Reuters

Picture caption,Trump addresses the media.

For eight years, pundits and naysayers have been predicting Trump’s imminent political collapse, however they’ve been confirmed fallacious.

Scandals steadily broke out throughout his 2016 presidential marketing campaign, together with lewd feedback he made regarding ladies throughout Entry Hollywood, which have been additionally talked regarding many instances on this trial. These scandals might very nicely carry down a median politician.

The Republican Social gathering has largely stayed with Trump by means of two impeachments and the chaotic finish of his presidency, throughout which the U.S. Congress was attacked by a mob of his supporters.

However none of that has stopped the previous president from mounting a comeback that might allow him to take once more the White Home in November.

“That is self-evident, but it surely’s actually astonishing that Trump continues to achieve help regardless of a scandal that might embarrass every other candidate in American historical past,” Engel stated.

“This historic felony conviction might show to be totally different, particularly if Trump loses his attraction and faces jail time.”

Audio plus textual content,US election 2024: Trump and Biden will face off once more

Maybe this was simply the most recent in a collection of chaotic incidents that, in hindsight, might solely be obstacles on Trump’s path to energy.

American College professor Allan Lichtman constructed a political mannequin that efficiently predicted the end result of each presidential election since 1984. However he additionally acknowledged that Trump’s felony conviction might possibly be an “unprecedented and catastrophic” flip that might confound the mannequin and alter the course of historical past.

“Historical past books will document this as a very extraordinary and unprecedented occasion, but it surely relies on what occurs subsequent,” he stated.

American voters will make their last judgment on the significance of Trump’s conviction in November. If the previous president loses, his responsible verdict is more likely to be cited as one of many causes.

If he wins, this can be only a footnote in Trump’s ups and downs however far-reaching political profession.

“As everyone knows, historical past is written by the victors,” Engel stated.

1717188783
#Trumps #conviction #hush #cash #felony #case #have an effect on #presidential #election #BBC #Information #Chinese language