Producers, on the other hand, are lowering the bar for the quantities that Greece will produce, while processors are optimistic, seeing an increase in domestic production from 43% to 57%.
“From the data we have so far, it seems that it will be a moderate olive growing season. The prolonged heat and strong winds will result in a moderate to small production and this is because we have had a large fall of the fruit so far. It is still early to draw safe conclusions, but I do not believe that our initial predictions will be confirmed”, he says to “ET”. the director of the Olive Oil Cooperative of Molao-Pakion Lakonia, Panagiotis Danakas.
Although the first estimates spoke of an increase in production in Spain from 750,000 to 1.5 million tons, in recent days representatives of the sector are revising their forecasts downwards to 1-1.1 million tons. Accordingly, in Greece, although initially the olive producers expected an increase in production from 140,000 to 200,000-220,000 tons, now their forecasts do not exceed 160,000 tons.
“The year started encouragingly in terms of quantities, however the end of the heat affected expected production. So we estimate that producer prices will be maintained at the levels they are today”, notes the director of the National Union of Agricultural Cooperatives, Moschos Korassidis.
However, as long as the high temperatures persist and there are no rains, the producers report that it will be difficult to reverse the image of another bad olive growing year.
The opposite opinion is expressed by olive oil processing executives, who speaking to “ET” they state optimistically that the new olive growing season will close with a positive sign, approaching 200,000 tons and pushing down the prices, which are currently on the supermarket shelves at 12-13 euros per liter. They estimate that the significant increase in Spanish olive oil production will have a positive effect on prices.
“With the data we have so far, we estimate that the prices at the producer level will move around 6 euros per kilo and they should not fall lower, so that they too can make a profit. As long as our forecasts are confirmed and with this producer price, the value of standardized olive oil will fluctuate on the shelves at 8-9 euros per liter”, he underlines to “ET”. high-ranking executive of the Association of Greek Olive Oil Standardization Industries (SEVITEL).
It is noted that the increase in the price of “liquid gold” has led to a drop in consumption by 27% from 30,000 to 22,000 tons per year.
The market is subdued
At the same time, the market continues to move sluggishly with few commercial transactions that are carried out based on the needs of each business, pushing prices down. This is because buyers do not want to buy large quantities, given that in two months the harvest will begin and they are afraid of having stocks of old olive oil left. Thus, in many cases, the product leaves the producers even at 6.5-7 euros per kilo.
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