In late January, as Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border and many still doubted whether Russia would dare to invade, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said it was “highly unlikely” that her country would apply to join NATO. .
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He explained that the measure would have a very substantial impact and that the sanctions would be “extremely harsh.”
But following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, under the pretext of “pacifying” the country, his vision has taken a drastic turn.
On Wednesday, Finland launched a debate that might result in the Nordic nation requesting join the alliance in a matter of weeks.
Neighboring Sweden took a similar turn, when the ruling Social Democratic Party, which has long opposed joining NATO, revealed that it is reconsidering its position following Russia’s attack.
“When Russia invaded Ukraine, Sweden’s security position changed fundamentally,” the party led by Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said in a statement Monday.
Moscow has made it clear that opposes any enlargement of the alliance.
Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, warned that the bloc “is not that kind of alliance that guarantees peace and stability, and its further expansion will not bring additional security to the European continent.”
Last week, Peskov threatened that Russia would have to “rebalance the situation” with its own measures if Sweden and Finland joined NATO.
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And in February, Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, warned of “political and military consequences” if countries joined the bloc.
“In coming weeks”
Despite multiple Russian warnings, Robert Dalsjö, an analyst for politico-military affairs at the Swedish Defense Research Institute, says that Finland is determined to join NATO and has started a swift and organized process to do so.
“We no longer speak of months, but of weeks, and Sweden is trying to follow Finland in the process,” the expert tells BBC Mundo.
the swedish newspaper Swedish daily newspaper reported on Wednesday that Sweden’s prime minister was determined to submit an application to join NATO and that her government planned to present the request at the Madrid summit that the military alliance hopes to hold at the end of June.
This report was revealed on the same day that the leaders of Finland and Sweden met in Stockholm, the Swedish capital, to discuss regional security issues following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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Sanna Marin, Prime Minister of Finland.
After the meeting, Sanna Marin confirmed that your country will decide if you apply to join to NATO “in a few weeks”.
“I won’t give any kind of timeline as to when we’ll make our decisions, but I think it will happen pretty fast“, he pointed out.
Weeks earlier, Marin justified his change of heart regarding NATO by saying that “Russia is not the neighbor we thought it was.”
end of neutrality
Traditionally, in Finland and Sweden there was always a strong general opposition to joining NATO.
The Swedes simply wanted to continue exercising their famous neutrality, while since the end of the Second World War, Finland had to convince the Soviet Union that it was not a threat to that power and adopted a position of “Finnishization”. “.
In the past, Russia had already invaded Finland several times and even annexed it as an autonomous duchy from the beginning of the 19th century until 1917. The last invasion was in November 1939, a few months following the start of World War II, in the which was called the Winter War.
But the military resistance to the invasion and then the so-called “Finnishization” allowed the country to remain free from soviet domination and communism.
Finland remained neutral in military and foreign policy terms, not joining NATO but not joining the Warsaw Pact either, despite the fact that Moscow wanted it to join its alliance.
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However, events in the Ukraine have prompted a major change in these Nordic countries.
In the mirror of Ukraine
In both nations, public support for NATO membership has risen sharply in recent months.
Although before the majority doubted or simply opposed, now close to the 60% of Finns and regarding 50% of Swedes now he supports her, according to several polls.
For Robert Dalsjö, the change is because “Putin’s aggression once morest Ukraine” has given people an indication of what Russia is capable of doing in neighboring countries.
Dalsjö further explains that many in Finland and Sweden have seen themselves in the mirror of Ukraine and they fear the same thing will happen to them if Russia decided to attack their countries.
“Ukraine has been receiving military, economic and moral support, but no country (of NATO) will go to war for another that is not a member,” explains the Swedish expert.
“It would be fantastic”
Ivo Daalder, European security specialist and chairman of the Global Affairs Council in Chicago, is sure that all NATO countries will welcome Finland’s and Sweden’s membership applications.
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Ivo Daalder (center) with US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel (left) and Georgian Defense Minister Irakli Alasania in June 2013.
“It would be great if they joined. They are NATO’s closest allies and they have been for many years, the American expert tells BBC Mundo.
“In addition, they have sat alongside other NATO members at their headquarters in Brussels at all major alliance meetings.”
Daalder, who was the former US ambassador to NATO from 2009 to 2013, adds that the Finns know that circumstances have changed and that sharing a 1,340km border with Russia makes them more vulnerable.
US defense officials have said that Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has been a “big strategic mistake” which will probably shape the enlargement of NATO.
According to the US State Department, talks between NATO leaders and the Finnish and Swedish foreign ministers had already taken place last week.
Experts expect that the Nordic neighbors will submit a request soon and that Washington will support it, which would take the number of members of the military alliance to 32.
more defense spending
NATO was formed in 1949 to counter the threat of Soviet expansion, although several Eastern European countries have joined since the fall of the Berlin Wall. who used to be communists.
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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz assured Magdalena Andersson that Europe would come to Sweden’s defense if Russia attacked the country.
Members agree to come to each other’s aid in the event of an armed attack once morest any other member.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has not only boosted support for NATO in Finland and Sweden, it has also caused Helsinki and Stockholm to increase their defense spending.
On Monday, Finnish authorities announced a new plan to allocate 14 million euros ($15 million) to buy drones for the army.
And last month, Swedish officials said they would increase defense spending by 3 billion kroner ($317 million) in 2022.
Finland shares a 1,340 km border with Russia and following growing rumors that Helsinki and Sweden plan to join NATO, reports have emerged that Moscow has begun to move military equipment to its border with Finland.
But US officials dismissed that they had seen nothing to confirm these reports.
“Russia’s hands are tied”
Former NATO Ambassador Ivo Daalder has no doubt that the transatlantic alliance would benefit from enlargement,
“The Finns and the Swedes have significant military capabilities. NATO would gain two allies who would help defend territory from the other NATO members,” he explains.
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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
While many fear that Russia will attack its Nordic neighbors as soon as they make their desire to join the military alliance official, Daalder says both are already protected by being members of the European Union.
In late March, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz noted that Sweden “can count” on other European countries to come to its defense in the event of a Russian attack, even though the country is not a NATO member.
Following a meeting in Berlin with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, Scholz said the EU had built a mutual assistance clause into its treaty and that the clause would be “taken very seriously” if there was an attack on Sweden.
A defeat for Russia
For Robert Dalsjö, the Kremlin’s threats only show “the frustration and discontent of Russia.
“Russia has its hands tied because its forces are in a savage war in the Ukraine, so it would not be able to carry out any retaliation once morest Finland or Sweden,” he explains.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg promised last week that the alliance would find solutions for Finland and Sweden during the “interim period”.
“We will find ways to address any concerns you may have regarding the period between potential application and final ratification“.
Both countries have received assurances from the NATO Secretary General, as well as messages of support from various members, including the US, UK, Germany and France.
And while Helsinki and Stockholm decide whether to join the military alliance In the West, experts agree that the war in Ukraine has already resulted in a defeat for the Kremlin.
Instead of dividing NATO and ending the possibility of enlargement, it seems to have given it a big boost.
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