how Paris can revive its influence in Europe

A baker’s dozen years have passed since France last held this position. From January 1^st to June 30^th, 2022, France will steer the European Union Council‘s rotating presidency. President Emmanuel Macron could have sidestepped this duty, to avoid overlapping with the presidential election. However, the leader who celebrated his 2017 win with the European anthem chose to view it as a beneficial coincidence.

→ ANALYSIS. Macron, a near-certain candidate, begins his European presidency

In the EEC’s infancy, with only six members, France assumed this role triennially. Now, it shares the responsibility with 26 other nations. Paris, controlling the EU Council’s agenda in early 2022, won’t reclaim this position until 2035. Macron’s window for progress is narrow, before the presidential election demands his attention.

Highly sought-after resources

Thierry Chopin, a special advisor at the Jacques-Delors Institute, led an independent think tank studying France’s approach. He argues that Paris enjoys no institutional advantage over other Member States. Yet, he highlights France’s unique attributes. “Its demographics, political weight, founding-member status, and robust administration empower Paris to advance legislative and technical priorities,” he explains.

France, now in its thirteenth presidency, boasts far more experience than Romania or Croatia (2019 and 2020, respectively). Olivier Costa, a European institutions expert at the Center Émile-Durkheim, emphasizes France’s coveted assets.

“Even as a founding member, Luxembourg, when in office, must rely on the EU Council General Secretariat’s staff; some tasks inevitably slip through the cracks. France doesn’t need this, a major difference in agenda management,” he notes.

Favorable conditions

A presidency’s effectiveness hinges on the prevailing political climate. “It works best when no one undermines its efforts,” summarizes Costa. The outlook is positive for Macron. His main counterpart, European Council President Charles Michel (a Francophone Belgian), belongs to the same liberal political family.

Michel, like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, partially owes her position to the French President, who also maintains close ties with ECB President Christine Lagarde.

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Thirteen years have passed since Nicolas Sarkozy, the last French president, presided over European summits as President of the European Council. Subsequently, the Treaty of Lisbon established the position of the Council’s President, currently held by Charles Michel.

“During his tenure, Nicolas Sarkozy played a crucial role in mediating a Georgian ceasefire. This is a task Emmanuel Macron might not readily undertake today,” observes Christian Lequesne, a Sciences Po professor.

A Prominent Role

France’s leadership aspirations within the European Union are anticipated. “Macron’s capacity for initiative is acknowledged,” confirms Thierry Chopin. “However, this can also draw criticism, even suspicion, causing friction when his prominent stance breeds resentment,” he cautions.

→ DECRYPTION. The challenges facing the French EU presidency

Emmanuel Macron’s commanding style and penchant for grand pronouncements aren’t universally appreciated. Despite this, the French president has actively cultivated dialogue across the political spectrum. On December 13th, he fulfilled his pledge to visit all EU member states during his term.

His trip to Budapest, the final capital city on his itinerary, included a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, leader of the Eurosceptic nationalists, a prominent figure in European politics and a candidate for reelection in April.

“The strategy of establishing close, bilateral relationships with other nations is vital for fostering trust. In 2000, during the French presidency under Chirac and Jospin, Paris faced criticism for prioritizing only a few major capitals,” notes Olivier Costa.

“Less Victor Hugo, More Robert Schuman”

Maintaining communication is insufficient; precision and clarity are also crucial. France, however, often advocates for significant principles without specifying the ramifications, according to Thierry Chopin. “Our report encapsulated this as ‘less Victor Hugo, more Robert Schuman’,” he explains.

→ ANALYSIS. Emmanuel Macron’s ambitious European agenda

In essence, researchers believe that European partners expect France to temper its dramatic rhetoric and instead actively contribute to the EU through practical actions.

Thierry Chopin cites the concept of“Strategic autonomy” as an example: “The ambiguity must be eliminated; the project aims to reduce Europe’s external dependencies on powers like the United States and China, preventing a new shift in reliance, this time internally, particularly towards France.”

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A Schedule Altered by French Elections

♦ January 6-7. Emmanuel Macron hosts
## Macron’s European Presidency: A Balancing Act Between Ambition and Cooperation

France’s return to the presidency of the European Union Council after a baker’s dozen years is a significant event, particularly given the timing coinciding with Emmanuel Macron’s re-election bid. While Macron could have avoided this overlap, he chose to embrace it, viewing the presidency as a valuable platform to advance his agenda.

The article highlights the unique advantages France possesses. Its long history as a founding member, substantial political weight, robust administrative capacity, and demographics provide a significant edge over newer members like Romania and Croatia. Experts like Thierry Chopin of the Jacques-Delors Institute emphasize that France doesn’t rely on the EU Council General Secretariat’s staff to the same extent as other nations, allowing for more efficient agenda management. This is a key advantage, noted by Olivier Costa of the Center Émile-Durkheim, who highlights the improved efficiency compared to countries like Luxembourg.

The success of any presidency, however, hinges on the political climate. Fortunately for Macron, the current landscape appears favorable. His strong relationships with key figures like European Council President Charles Michel (a Francophone Belgian from the same political family), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and ECB President Christine Lagarde, all partly indebted to Macron’s influence, contribute to a smoother political environment. This contrasts with the situation faced by Nicolas Sarkozy during his presidency (which oversaw the Treaty of Lisbon that established the current role), where his success in mediating a Georgian ceasefire is highlighted as a potentially less feasible task for Macron in the current geopolitical context.

While Macron’s capacity for initiative is undeniably a strength, it also carries risks, as highlighted by Chopin. His proactive approach can generate friction and resentment among other member states. This necessitates a delicate balancing act: harnessing France’s considerable influence to advance its priorities within the EU framework while simultaneously fostering cooperation and avoiding the pitfalls of unilateral action. The narrow window of opportunity before the presidential election further intensifies the pressure on Macron to achieve tangible results during his European presidency. The coming months will be crucial in determining the success of this carefully calculated, yet potentially challenging, undertaking.