2023-08-03 19:09:37
Oil prices have started to rise once more seriously since the beginning of July, both for crude oil and for finished products, and therefore fuel. We have known no less than four increases in one month for the price of diesel and three for the price of gasolinethe last dating from yesterday for application today.
Since Monday, the maximum price of diesel (B7) attention 1.9050 euros per litera first since the end of November last year, an increase of 0.05 euro.
For his part, the maximum price of gasoline amounts to 1.8670 euro per liter for the cheapest, the 95 RON E10 (+0.019 euro), and up to 2.0970 euro for the 98 RON E5 (+0.045 euro).
OPEC eagerly awaited
How to explain these repeated increases, which hurt the consumer when refueling? Several factors contribute to (figuratively) burning fuel pumps. “We have a euro which is quite weak compared to the dollar, that does not help since all our exchanges are done in dollars on this subject”, explains Olivier Neirynck, technical director of Brafco, the Belgian Federation of fuel and fuel traders.
“The Americans, who consume a lot (oil), no longer have the possibility of being able to water us with petroleum products.”
“The other elements are due to geopolitical and energy tensions since this Friday, there is a OPEC meetingwhere Saudi Arabia’s decision to propose either a further cut in production or to maintain the announced cut is eagerly awaited. The market is therefore under tension pending this decision.” As a reminder, Saudi Arabia decided in early June, unilaterally, to reduce its daily oil production by one million barrels per day, raising serious concerns regarding supply.
In addition to OPEC, Olivier Neirynck points economic recovery in India and the United States, where the risk of recession seems to be receding ever further. US gross GDP growth thus accelerated in the second quarter of the year, reaching an annualized rate of 2.4%, while analysts saw it slow to 1.7% on average. “Compared to the Ukrainian crisis, our alternatives to Russian oil that we no longer import into Europe are sous tension since the Americans, who consume a lot, no longer have the possibility of being able to water us with petroleum products. We are also waiting for the replenishment of oil stocks in the United States to find a situation a little more serene”, adds the specialist.
A bit of optimism for September
If these price increases are felt in the wallets of motorists, we are still very far from the records known at the start of the crisis in Ukraine. “There is no need to panic, indicates Olivier Neirynck. It is true that the markets are under tension for the moment, but I remain reasonably optimistic for the septemberwhere one should know a marché a little more stable than today.”
In question: without anticipating beyond measure the decision of the OPEC of this Friday, Olivier Neirynck thinks that a price of the barrel of oil too high would not be beneficial for the producers. “The level of 80-85 dollars per barrel is an economically profitable level for them. Anything above that might dampen demand a bit. It is not good, neither for them nor for us. So I think reason will prevail.”
How would this drop (anticipated, for the moment) translate into the consumer’s wallet? Brafco’s technical director expects a liter of diesel at 1.70-75 euro, rather than today’s 1.90 euro. “But I always put the downside compared to geopolitical elements which would disturb this theoretical mechanism.” In particular the future decisions of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which are very difficult to predict.
The government still has room
In the meantime, the government still has a mechanism to ease the burden on citizens: the “reverse ratchet”, which consists of to lower excise duties on fuel when prices soar. This is a decrease of 17.5 cents per litre, or 9.5 cents including VAT. But it is unlikely that this mechanism will be triggered while the ministers are currently on leave, according to Olivier Neirynck. “It’s not on the table at the moment. They still have this lever available in case we find prices that are no longer affordable for the consumer, but for the moment, we are not there at allespecially since it is ‘only’ the official maximum price.”
The motorist is therefore left with a well-known solution: go hunting for cheapest gas pumpeven if it means doing a bit of tourism in your own country…
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