How fair is a penalty shootout in football for both teams?

Doctor of Mathematical Sciences from Germany Christian HESSE stated that the current system of determining the winner of a match in a series of 11-meter kicks is unfair.

He cited data from a study of more than 1,000 penalty shootouts. It showed that the team that takes the first kick wins 60% of the time. Hesse said that “there is no other sport where even a simple coin toss causes such a large imbalance in the chances of winning.” According to him, even in chess, the advantage of white over black for grandmasters is only 6%: “Additional psychological pressure reduces the chances of the second team to kick by an average of 4%. This leads to a difference of 20% in 5 kicks.”

Hesse suggests that the first team should shoot first, then the second team twice, then the first team twice, and so on. This, he says, would mathematically create almost equal opportunities.

FACT

The first penalty was awarded in a match in 1891. The innovation was proposed a year earlier by Irish sports official William McCrum and announced at a meeting of the International Football Association Board.