2024-01-11 14:45:00
He start of the wheel this Thursday, January 11 It contains strong expectations following the agreement reached by the national government with the International Monetary Fund. In the last hours of yesterday, when the announcement was made, the markets began to react. Thus, significant increases were seen in the dollar bonds that soared almost 6%and also the ADR’s of local companies listed on Wall Street of more than 5%.
Salvador Di Stéfano’s warning: “Be careful with the dollar”
For their part, financial dollars moderated their rise and today we expect to see these trends crystallize.
In case, the at 11:30 the MEP dollar operates almost the same as yesterday’s close at $1140while the cadded with liquid it makes it $1174.55. While, The official dollar is $835 and the card dollar used for purchases abroad with foreign currency is $1,336. and it is still the most expensive exchange rate on the market.
Source: Rava Bursátil
For its part, The free dollar fell and operates at $1,120 for sale and $1,070 for purchase.
As to Dollar bonds continue to rise and mark a rise of almost 2%, following yesterday’s jump. In the fixed income segment, sovereign bonds operate with gains led by Global 2046, followed by Global 2041 (1.1%), Bonar 2038 (1.1%) and Global 2035 (1%).
The agreement with the IMF
After a few days of negotiations, Luis Caputo, Minister of Economy, announced last night that the agreement with the International Monetary Fundresuming the virtually fallen in 2023. With this new version of the agreement – which still must be approved by the board of the organization ininternational-, US$4.7 billion will be releasedwhich correspond to advance disbursements and amounts pending for 2023.
According to pending maturitieswith those 4.7 billion, all program payments might be met until April 2024.
The IMF statement on the agreement: strong criticism of Massa and praise of Milei’s “ambitious plan”
Los Key points of the agreement include primary surplus of 2% of GDP in 2024, and a accumulation of 10 billion reserves (includes US$2.7 billion acquired in December).
The bonuses up
Yesterday, driven by the prospects of the agreement with the IMF, sovereign bonds in hard-dollar They gained 3.5%, with a rise of 3.1% in the New York law and a rise of 4.1% in the Argentine law. As analyzed from Cohen, They accumulate a drop of -0.8% so far this month. In this way, the parities average 36.3% and the country risk remained at 1,987 basis points
In the exchange market, The agricultural sector liquidated 84 million dollars and the BCRA bought 127 million dollars that went to increase he stock of international reserves and now position them in US$23,412 million. This implies that, One month into Javier Milei’s government, reserves have accumulated an increase of US$2,204 million.
Regarding exchange rates, in the previous round the official dollar increased to $814.95, which implies a monthly devaluation rate of 2.3%. The MEP with LEDs fell 0.3% to reach $1,143, while the CCL with ADRs decreased 1.4% to $1,186. This way, Their gaps are at 40% and 46%, respectively.
On the other hand, in the daily report, the consulting firm Cohen indicated that dollar futures contracts fell 0.9%. “The greatest declines were recorded in the August (-1.6%), April (-1.3%) and May (-1.2%) contracts. Thus, the implicit devaluation is located at 2% until January, 37% until April and 77% until July. 244,000 contracts were operated, which means a weekly accumulation of 1,304,000,” they indicated.
Meanwhile, Wise Capital agreed on the good timing of sovereign bonds, to the extent that following the announcement of the agreement, those denominated in dollars soared to almost 6% and the country risk pierced 2,000 basis points following falling 4.7% and finished at 1,984 points. “In the same vein, in the CER segment the bonds operated with a majority of increases, as did the dollar-linked sovereigns and the duals,” they expressed.
Also as a consequence of the agreement with the IMF announced by the Government, Argentine shares that operate on Wall Street rose up to 5.4%. With a minor advance, the S&P Merval recovered from Tuesday’s sharp drop and ended with a rise of 0.9%.
Yesterday, financial dollars gave way
After nine days, both the MEP dollar and the CCL fell together.
From Wise Capital they explained that. yesAlthough yesterday’s session began with increases for both prices, the effects of the agreement with the IMF were noticeable and ended with falls.
The MEP dollar fell $17.93 (1.55%) to settle at $1,142.45 (spread with the official at 40.2%). For its part, andThe CCL dollar fell $10.28 (0.86%) and stood at $1,183.02, with a gap with the official one of 45.17%.
Developing…
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