Aljazeera.net correspondents
Tehran- A win that can be described as strange for the reformist movement in the early Iranian presidential elections, today, Saturday, where their candidate, Masoud Bazeshkian, won with more than 53% of the vote, while the turnout did not reach 50%. The reformists had previously only won with a turnout of more than 60%.
This return to power came following a 19-year hiatus, except for the two terms of the former president, Hassan Rohani, who ran as a moderate candidate. After negotiations with the reformists, he received their support two days before the vote. There is no doubt that the reformist votes led to his victory.
Against the backdrop of the reformist movement, experts expect that Iran in the coming days, will see real changes in its internal and external policies, but slowly due to the complexity that dominates the country’s political system.
Cautious hope
For his part, researcher Roozbeh Alamdari believes that Masoud Pezeshkian’s personality and individual qualities contributed to his victory in the elections, as he speaks “honestly and clearly, and was able to revive hope among a segment of the Iranian people.”
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, he pointed to another factor, which is that the second round of elections witnessed a competitive atmosphere, as opposing trends emerged among the candidates.
Alamdari continued that the competitive situation moved the community, and then 6 million people – who boycotted the first round – participated in the second round and voted for Bezeshkian. He considered Bezeshkian’s qualification and Happy Jalili created a kind of opposite trend regarding foreign policy and the duality of openness and closure at home.
In his analysis of the turnout, which he titled “Cautious Hope,” the researcher saw that the events that took place during Rouhani’s second government as well as the government of the late president Ebrahim Raisi made the majority of the people pessimistic and skeptical regarding the influence of presidents, governments and parties in bringing regarding change, “and this created a gap between the regime and the people.”
He added that the middle class and some of the poor class gave Pezeshkian a chance to improve conditions, and he expected that if the new president was able to significantly improve social freedoms, the women’s issue, and the economic crisis, he would get a higher percentage of votes in the upcoming elections, where hope would change from cautious to strong.
Strong competition
For his part, political researcher Mohammad Mohajeri said that the competition was very strong in the second round, which made some moderates tend to vote for the reformist candidate, “and this is what caused the conservatives’ defeat.”
In his statement to Al Jazeera Net, Muhajeri explained that Iran has not witnessed 100% participation in its history, and the highest participation rate was 80%, and in most cases it ranged between 60 and 70%.
Based on this, Muhajiri adds, 30% of those who participated in the previous presidential elections did not participate in this election, which is a large percentage, and the majority of them are young people, some of whom object to the economic crisis, and others are angry because of the social conditions such as the security dealing with the issues of the hijab and blocking the internet.
He believes that young people played an influential role in these elections, as they moved “to prevent the victory of the hardline movement.”
Mohajeri stressed that the total vote base of conservatives is 13 million, while the reformists have 16 million votes, and what distinguishes them is that they are able to attract 20% more votes, as happened in the 2013 and 2017 presidential elections.
Different elections
For his part, Professor of Political and Social Sciences Mohammad Ali Sanobari saw that the 2024 elections were different compared to all the elections of the Islamic Republic.
He said that they had previously witnessed two-round elections in 2005, but the turnout rate decreased in the second round, unlike these elections in which the rate increased, in addition to choosing the type of voters that differed from the 2005 election.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Sanobari added that what is happening in the Iranian political structure is different from what is happening in the social structure, explaining that politicians can present their opinions but it cannot be decided that the reformists won the elections. He attributed this to the fact that Pezeshkian “denied his affiliation with any party.”
He concluded by saying that those who voted for Bazeshkian believe that he cares regarding justice, and that is why his votes are not partisan, as Sanobari says.
Aljazeera.net correspondents
Tehran- A win that can be described as strange for For the reformist movement In the early Iranian presidential elections, today, Saturday, where their candidate won Masoud Bazeshkian With more than 53% of the vote, while the turnout did not reach 50%. The reformists had previously only won with a turnout of more than 60%.
This return to power came following a 19-year hiatus, except for the two terms of the former president. Hassan Rohani Who ran as a moderate candidate. After negotiations with the reformists, he received their support two days before the vote. There is no doubt that the reformist votes led to his victory.
Against the backdrop of the reformist movement, experts expect that Iran In the coming days, there will be real changes in its internal and external policies, but slowly due to the complexity that dominates the country’s political system.
Cautious Hope
For his part, researcher Roozbeh Alamdari believes that Masoud Pezeshkian’s personality and individual qualities contributed to his victory in the elections, as he speaks “honestly and clearly, and was able to revive hope among a segment of the Iranian people.”
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, he pointed to another factor, which is that the second round of elections witnessed a competitive atmosphere, as opposing trends emerged among the candidates.
Alamdari continued that the competitive situation moved the community, and then 6 million people – who boycotted the first round – participated in the second round and voted for Bezeshkian. He considered Bezeshkian’s qualification andHappy Jalili It created a kind of opposite trend regarding foreign policy and the duality of openness and closure at home.
In his analysis of the turnout, which he titled “Cautious Hope,” the researcher saw that the events that took place during Rouhani’s second government as well as the government of the late president Ebrahim RaisiIt made the majority of the people pessimistic and skeptical regarding the influence of presidents, governments and parties in bringing regarding change, “and this created a gap between the regime and the people.”
He added that the middle class and some of the poor class gave Pezeshkian a chance to improve conditions, and he expected that if the new president was able to significantly improve social freedoms, the women’s issue, and the economic crisis, he would get a higher percentage of votes in the upcoming elections, where hope would change from cautious to strong.
Strong Competition
For his part, political researcher Mohammad Mohajeri said that the competition was very strong in the second round, which made some moderates tend to vote for the reformist candidate, “and this is what caused the conservatives’ defeat.”
In his statement to Al Jazeera Net, Muhajeri explained that Iran has not witnessed 100% participation in its history, and the highest participation rate was 80%, and in most cases it ranged between 60 and 70%.
Based on this, Muhajiri adds, 30% of those who participated in the previous presidential elections did not participate in this election, which is a large percentage, and the majority of them are young people, some of whom object to the economic crisis, and others are angry because of the social conditions such as the security dealing with the issues of the hijab and blocking the internet.
He believes that young people played an influential role in these elections, as they moved “to prevent the victory of the hardline movement.”
Mohajeri stressed that the total vote base of conservatives is 13 million, while the reformists have 16 million votes, and what distinguishes them is that they are able to attract 20% more votes, as happened in the 2013 and 2017 presidential elections.
Different Elections
For his part, Professor of Political and Social Sciences Mohammad Ali Sanobari saw that the 2024 elections were different compared to all the elections of the Islamic Republic.
He said that they had previously witnessed two-round elections in 2005, but the turnout rate decreased in the second round, unlike these elections in which the rate increased, in addition to choosing the type of voters that differed from the 2005 election.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Sanobari added that what is happening in the Iranian political structure is different from what is happening in the social structure, explaining that politicians can present their opinions but it cannot be decided that the reformists won the elections. He attributed this to the fact that Pezeshkian “denied his affiliation with any party.”
He concluded by saying that those who voted for Bazeshkian believe that he cares regarding justice, and that is why his votes are not partisan, as Sanobari says.
Implications of the Elections
The outcome of the Iranian presidential elections has significant implications for the country’s political landscape, both domestically and internationally. The victory of the reformist candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, suggests a shift in public sentiment towards a more moderate and reformist approach. This might potentially lead to:
- Increased social freedoms and civil liberties.
- A more open and less restrictive environment for women.
- A focus on economic reforms and addressing the ongoing economic crisis.
- A potential shift in Iran’s foreign policy towards greater engagement with the international community.
However, it is important to note that the Iranian political system is complex and dominated by conservative factions. The new president will likely face significant challenges in implementing significant reforms, and the pace of change will likely be gradual. The impact of these elections will be observed closely by the international community, particularly in terms of Iran’s nuclear program and its relationship with the West.
Challenges Ahead
While the reformists have secured a victory, they face several challenges ahead. These include:
- The powerful influence of conservative factions within the government and the judiciary.
- The need to address deep-seated economic problems and mitigate the impacts of international sanctions.
- The potential for pushback and resistance from those who oppose reform.
- Navigating the complex foreign policy environment and balancing relations with regional powers.
Opportunities for Change
Despite the challenges, the new government has the opportunity to implement meaningful changes that can improve the lives of Iranian citizens. This might involve:
- Promoting economic diversification and attracting foreign investment.
- Investing in education, healthcare, and infrastructure.
- Reforming the judiciary and addressing human rights concerns.
- Promoting dialogue and reconciliation with regional and international actors.
Monitoring the Future
The upcoming months and years will be crucial in determining the direction of Iran’s political and social trajectory. The international community and observers will be closely monitoring the new president’s actions and the response from different factions within Iran. The outcome will ultimately have significant implications for the future of the country and the region.
