Xinhua News Agency, Moscow, June 3 (international observation) How the situation of the 100-day conflict between Russia and Ukraine evolved
Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Kai Li Dongxu Geng Pengyu
It has been 100 days since Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine on June 3. At present, the focus of the war is Lisichansk and Severo-Donetsk in the Luhansk region. Judging from the battle reports published by Russia and Ukraine, the battle between the two sides in Severo-Donetsk has heated up.
The Russian side has repeatedly emphasized that the special military operation will achieve all the “established goals”, and Ukrainian President Zelensky has called for “fighting to the end.” At the same time, Western countries led by the United States continued to exert extreme pressure on Russia and continued to increase military assistance to Ukraine.
Analysts believe that Russia and Ukraine have different negotiating positions. How long the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will last and how it will end will largely depend on the future direction of the war.
The focus of the war “moves north”
Since the launch of the special military operation, Mariupol has been a key target of the Russian army, and the two sides have launched a fierce competition around this place for more than two months. The Russian Ministry of Defense said on May 20 that the Russian army had taken full control of the city of Mariupol. After that, the focus of the battlefield “moved north” to the northeastern part of the Donetsk region and the western part of the Luhansk region.
At present, the focus of Russian-Ukrainian competition is Lisichansk and Severo-Donetsk in the Luhansk region, of which Severo-Donetsk is regarded by the Ukrainian army as one of the most important strongholds in the Donbas region. According to the Ukrainian State News Agency reported on June 1, the Russian army has controlled 70% of the area of Severo Donetsk.
Overall, the Russian army still takes the initiative in the battlefield. Zelensky recently admitted that the situation facing the Ukrainian army is very difficult. He recently inspected the front line of Kharkiv state and said on social media that the Ukrainian side “will defend the country to the last person, we will continue to fight and will definitely win.”
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the special military operation will continue until all the established tasks are completed. The Russian army has said that one of the tasks of the new phase of the special military operation is to “completely control the Donbass and southern Ukraine”.
Russian military expert Leonkov believes that the situation of the Ukrainian army in the “Battle of Donbass” is not optimistic. It may be the most rational choice for the Ukrainian army to withdraw its troops from the Donbass and leave viable forces to rebuild the defense line. Teshkevich, a researcher at the Institute of Future Relations of Ukraine, believes that the Russian army cannot control the entire Donbass in the short term. Other areas strike enemy supply lines and conduct mobile operations to maximize enemy consumption.
Differences in peace talks are difficult to resolve
After the “Bucha Incident” in early April, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine were interrupted. The Russian side has repeatedly emphasized that it has not closed the door to negotiations, and Zelensky has repeatedly reiterated that the Russian army should withdraw to the position of the military contact line or border line before the conflict, and only in this case can the two sides resume “normal” negotiations. Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council, said that the truce conditions proposed by Zelensky are impossible in principle.
Recently, some European countries have strengthened their diplomatic mediation with Russia. Italian Prime Minister Draghi, French President Macron, and German Chancellor Scholz have had phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the situation in Ukraine. Turkey is also actively promoting the Russian-Ukrainian dialogue. But judging from the results, the above diplomatic actions have had little effect on restarting the Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
Medvedev pointed out that Russia has two red lines for negotiation: the issue of Crimea’s sovereignty cannot be negotiated; the Donetsk and Luhansk regions have chosen their own destiny, and it is meaningless to talk regarding “autonomy” within the framework of Ukraine.
Teshkevich believes that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has in fact developed into a “long-term war”, and the “active phase” may last for several months or even longer. The next key is to discuss the relevant conditions of the ceasefire agreement, but even if a ceasefire is reached, it will will be very fragile.
Russian military expert Perendzhiyev believes that Kyiv does not have the autonomy to negotiate, and Russia’s real negotiating target is Western countries, but at present, “the West is not ready for serious negotiations.”
Western arch fire
Since the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the West has exerted extreme pressure on Russia and imposed multiple rounds of severe sanctions on Russia in various fields such as economy, finance, energy and culture. At the same time, the West has continued to provide military assistance to Ukraine. From the initial helmets and body armor to the current heavy weapons and sophisticated weapons, military assistance has been continuously strengthened.
U.S. President Joe Biden on May 31 approved the latest batch of weapons aid to Ukraine, including a long-range multiple rocket launcher system at Ukraine’s request. In addition, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said on May 28 that Ukraine is receiving a batch of “Harpoon” anti-ship missile systems from Denmark, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands for the defense of the Black Sea region, and other partner countries will also supply the Uzbekistan with these systems. missiles. At the same time, the European Union recently passed the sixth round of sanctions once morest Russia, banning the import of 75% of Russian oil.
In this regard, Putin emphasized that it is very dangerous for the West to continue to send weapons to Ukraine, which may lead to further tension and worsening of the humanitarian crisis. Antonov, the Russian ambassador to the United States, said on May 28 that the influx of Western weapons into Ukraine “significantly raises the risk of expanding the conflict.” If the United States sends long-range artillery systems to Ukraine, it will be “unacceptable” to Russia. of.
Ukrainian international affairs expert Buzarov believes that Biden recently signed a $40 billion aid to Ukraine bill, and it is expected that the United States will continue to strengthen military assistance to Ukraine in the future. Gevorgyan, an independent Russian political scientist, said that under this circumstance, it is impossible to expect great progress in Russia-US relations, and cooperation on issues such as strategic dialogue and the Iranian nuclear issue cannot be discussed.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that in fact the West has launched a “proxy war” once morest Russia, and the direction of Russia’s relations with the West is entirely up to the West. When the West fell into an “anti-Russian frenzy”, even if they proposed to restart relations with Russia in some way, the Russian side had to seriously consider “whether it is worth it”.
(Editor in charge: Ma Changyan)
