2023-10-17 09:15:31
Optimism is there. An improvement in the standard of living is expected by households.
According to the HCP, household morale has improved compared to the previous quarter but remains below the level recorded in the same quarter of the previous year.
A renewed confidence is felt among households. According to the results of the permanent economic survey established by the High Commission for Planning, “the household confidence index (ICM) stands at 46.5 points instead of 45.4 points recorded the previous quarter and 47.4 points the same quarter of the previous year,” we learn in this sense. Overall, the components of the Household Confidence Index relate to the perception by households of the evolution of the standard of living of unemployment, of the opportunity to make purchases of durable goods and of their situation financial. Referring to the conclusions of the survey, there is optimism.
An improvement in the standard of living is expected by households. “In the third quarter of 2023, 86.1% of households report a deterioration in the standard of living over the last 12 months, 9.3% a maintenance at the same level and 4.6% an improvement. The balance of opinion on the past evolution of the standard of living stands at minus 81.5 points compared to minus 84.6 points in the previous quarter and minus 74.6 points in the same quarter of last year. we report to the HCP. In terms of outlook, the HCP indicates that the evolution of the standard of living over the next 12 months demonstrates that “52.5% of households expect a deterioration, 36.7% to maintain the same level and 10 .8% to an improvement. And to specify that “the balance of opinion relating to this indicator thus stands at minus 41.7 points compared to minus 43.7 points in the previous quarter and minus 41.6 points in the same quarter of the previous year”. As for the evolution of unemployment, perceptions remain negative. “In the third quarter of 2023, 86.7% versus 4.8% of households expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months. The balance of opinion thus remained negative at minus 81.9 points compared to minus 80.4 points a quarter previously and minus 83.5 points a year earlier,” indicates the HCP in its publication.
Likewise, the economic situation is perceived by households as unfavorable for the purchase of durable goods. 79.5% of respondents compared to 8.0% consider that now is not the right time to make purchases of durable goods. “The balance of opinion for this indicator thus remained negative at minus 71.5 points compared to minus 68.9 points a quarter previously and minus 74.0 points a year earlier,” explains the HCP. Regarding the financial situation of households, perceptions are, according to the HCP, less pessimistic.
In this sense, 55.8% of households believe that their income covers their expenses while 42.2% declare that they are going into debt or drawing on their savings. Furthermore, 2% of households participating in the survey say they save part of their income. Regarding the balance of opinion relating to the current financial situation of households, it remained, according to the HCP, negative. It thus stood at minus 40.2 points compared to minus 41.4 points the previous quarter and minus 40.9 points the same quarter of the previous year.
As for the evolution of their financial situation over the last 12 months, the results of the survey show that 58% compared to 4.7% of households report a deterioration. To this end, the balance of opinion for this indicator remained negative, at minus 53.3 points compared to minus 57.3 points the previous quarter and minus 47.7 points a year earlier.
“Regarding the evolution of their financial situation over the next 12 months, 20.3% of households expect their financial situation to improve, 54.8% to maintain the same level and 24.9 % to a deterioration”, we note from the HCP. And to continue: “The balance of opinion for this indicator remained negative at minus 4.6 points compared to minus 6.1 points in the previous quarter and minus 5.9 points in the same quarter of the previous year.”
It should be noted that the survey also provides quarterly data on household perceptions of other aspects of living conditions. “This concerns in particular the capacity of households to save and the evolution of the prices of food products,” we learn. In this regard, the HCP notes negative perceptions regarding the future capacity to save. Only 9.8% expect to save in the next 12 months. “The balance of opinion on the future capacity of households to save remained negative and reached its lowest level with minus 80.4 points, compared to minus 79.4 points in the previous quarter and minus 78.0 points in the same quarter of last year”. As for food products, households expressed an expectation of a less pronounced increase. Referring to the HCP, almost all households (98.0%) declare that the prices of food products have increased over the last 12 months compared to a minimal proportion of households (0.1%) who feel their decrease. The balance of opinion thus remained negative at minus 97.9 points, instead of minus 98.0 points a quarter previously and minus 99.1 a year earlier. As for the evolution of the prices of food products over the next 12 months, 72.1% of households expect an increase, 22.0% to remain at the same level and only 5.9% to see a decrease. The balance of opinion thus remained negative at minus 66.2 points, instead of minus 67.7 points a quarter previously and minus 73.6 a year earlier.
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