Next Sunday is the presidential election. Polls predict between 51 and 58 percent for incumbent Alexander Van der Bellen. A current OGM survey of 1,700 representatively selected voters (online procedure) commissioned by the “Kurier” sees Van der Bellen at 58 percent. Voter turnout will be around 65 percent, OGM boss Wolfgang Bachmayer estimates, with the FPÖ electorate taking part to a lesser extent than the average.
There will also be differences in voter turnout by age group. Bachmayer in Sunday’s “Kurier” newspaper: “Only 50 to 55 percent of the under-30s can be expected to turn out, but almost three out of four pensioners will go to the polls.” The survey was conducted between September 23rd and 28th, the fluctuation range is +/-2.4 percent.
FPÖ candidate Walter Rosenkranz got 16 percent in this poll. This is well below the current values of the FPÖ in the Sunday question for the National Council election, where it holds 22 percent. Rosencrantz suffers above all from the former FPÖ politician Gerald Grosz (who will receive five percent according to the survey). Tassilo Wallentin (nine percent) takes away potential votes from the ÖVP camp, namely those ÖVP voters who do not want to vote for Van der Bellen. Michael Brunner (MFG) and Heinrich Staudinger are only counting candidates with an expected three and one percent respectively, Dominik Wlazny remains an urban eight percent phenomenon.
A market poll for the “Standard” this week had slightly different readings. Van der Bellen was 51 percent at Market, Rosencrantz was 11 percent, and Wlazny was 10 percent. Wallentin received seven percent of the votes in this poll, Grosz and Brunner each four and Staudinger only two percent.
“No real election campaign”
For the pollsters, Van der Bellen has the best chance of securing his re-election in the first round of the presidential election. Pollsters Peter Hajek and Bachmayer consider it unlikely that Van der Bellen will have to go to a runoff.
“There is no real election campaign going on,” said Hajek (Public Opinion Strategies/Unique Research) looking back on the last few weeks of the election campaign. This is less justified by the fact that Van der Bellen does not engage in (TV) discussions with the other candidates, “but has simply to do with the environment, with the multiple crises at international level” – the election campaign is overshadowed by these . “That’s why the election campaign doesn’t take place except on TV and in some interviews.”
Bachmayer analyzed the situation in a similar way: He had experienced the election campaign “not as an election campaign, but as an election”. This is also due to the fact that, apart from the FPÖ, none of the parliamentary parties has nominated their own candidate (the former leader of the Greens, Van der Bellen, is again running as an independent candidate, as in 2016).
Hajek considers this relative calm a “double-edged sword” for Van der Bellen. On the one hand, this non-election campaign is probably not unpleasant for the incumbent – on the other hand, there is no mobilization of the electorate as a whole. “The question is whether that will also have an impact on his voters.” “We have seen in the major polls that Van der Bellen’s electorate is well mobilized. But when the election campaign dies down, it doesn’t just die on one side.”
At the same time, the expert pointed to an advantage of Van der Bellen: the incumbent was able to present himself on the international stage – most recently in New York at the UN General Assembly. “The opposing candidates don’t have the advantage, that means re-election.” Van der Bellen and his team didn’t make any real mistakes during the election campaign, just small “petitesses,” according to Hajek. “The question is whether you have to photograph yourself in the Austrian national team jersey,” he said, referring to photos recently distributed on the candidate’s social channels, which presented the ex-Greens as a football fan dipped in red-white-red.
“Runoff election rather unlikely”
All in all, however, Hajek sticks to his assessment from the beginning of September – even if the survey by his institute in mid-September for Van der Bellen showed a lower value of 59 percent than in mid-August (66 percent). In mid-August, the field of competitors was still vague, the pollster explained this difference during the survey presentation. “I am still of the opinion that a runoff election is rather unlikely,” he emphasized again.
Bachmayer also ventured an assessment. “I can’t imagine an incumbent losing the majority.” In addition, in the current global political situation, citizens are more interested in other topics. And the voters wouldn’t want any experiments either, according to the OGM boss. (apa)