Jon Tester is an increasingly unusual case. He is a Democrat, but has sat in the Senate for a state that votes evenly for the Republicans since 2007. Now it may be over for him, and with that the party’s majority in the chamber will probably also collapse.
Since 2020, the Democrats have had a majority in the Senate – when you include four independent senators who usually vote with the party. This year, however, it is mainly the senators who were elected in 2018 who are up for re-election. It was a good year for the Democrats, and thus they are defending more seats now.
Of the 34 seats in the Senate to be elected this year, 19 are currently held by Democrats, four by independents and eleven by Republicans.
Most are safe
Most places are “safe”. IN Fivethirtyeights projection of the Senate election, the Democrats will with great certainty retain twelve seats and probably a further four. The independent senators Angus King and Bernie Sanders are also probably safe.
Republicans are well positioned to keep all of theirs, although some senators are less secure than others. In a few places, however, the place can change hands and thus also tip the majority.
The other two independent senators, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, are stepping down for the Senate this year. Here it is predicted that Sinema’s place will go to the Democrats, while Manchin’s place will go to the Republicans. The rest of the places where there is tension are Jon Tester’s place in Montana and Democrat Sherrod Brown’s place in Ohio.
Not everyone sits as securely
Should the Republicans win both of these, they have a majority of 52 out of 100 senators. However, Tester has been out on a winter night before and bailed out of difficult situations at the polls. Both he and Sherrod Brown are centrist Democrats who can appeal broadly. This, together with a solid lead in spending, is what the party is counting on.
There are several other Democrats and Republicans who are not completely secure: the Democrats’ seats in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are pointed to as vulnerable, as are the Republican seats in Florida, Texas and Nebraska.
Independent candidate could win in Nebraska
The latter is a special case: Both senators in the state are up for election. The Republicans are likely to retain one, while Deb Fischer is fighting a tough battle against independent candidate Dan Osborn. The opinion polls are mostly taken up by the candidates themselves and show results accordingly.
The former union leader Osborn hammers away at Fischer as an elitist millionaire and part of a broken system, while he points to himself as someone who can work for ordinary people, writes the AP news agency.
Regardless of how things go in Nebraska, however, it seems very likely that the Republicans will take the majority in the Senate. This could create major problems for Kamala Harris if she wins the presidential election – especially with appointing ministers, ambassadors, civil servants and judges.
The Republicans may lose their narrow majority
However, what happens in the House of Representatives is more unclear. Here, the Republicans have barely had a majority since 2022, but it is far from certain that they will retain that.
Where in the Senate there are two senators per state, the House’s 435 members are elected in one-person constituencies distributed by population. The vast majority of constituencies are considered safe for one of the parties, according to Fivethirtyeight the Democrats are, so to speak, secured 177 seats and the Republicans 191 seats as of 28 October. In addition, 28 places with the Democrats and 13 with the Republicans fall into the “probable” category, while there are a total of 26 places that only lean towards one party or are genuinely uncertain.
Among the seats in play is Alaska’s electoral district. Here, Republican Don Young was dominant for half a century, but when he died in 2022, Democrat Mary Peltola won a sensational victory. However, she will have to fight hard to keep this place in 2024.
Both parties are also betting hard on winning in California and New York, states where the Democrats dominate at the state level, but where the Republicans have won a number of constituencies in recent years.
Can write history in many ways
The 2024 election will be written in block letters in American history anyway. But there are exceptionally high chances for a very special milestone, points out CNN.
Today, the Democrats have a majority in the Senate, the Republicans have it in the House of Representatives. After the election, it may be the other way around – the Senate will probably shift to the Republicans, the House of Representatives is almost impossible to predict. In that case, it will be the first time in the US’s 250-year history that the chambers of Congress change their majority in the opposite direction.
In that case, Hakeem Jeffries will also end up as Speaker (Leader) of the House, as the first African-American. Who the Republicans choose to lead the Senate is more uncertain, as their group leader Mitch McConnell is stepping down after the election.
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**Interview with Political Analyst Jane Doe on Montana Senate Race**
**Host:** Welcome back to Political Unplugged! Today, we’re diving into the heated race for the Senate seat in Montana, currently held by Democrat Jon Tester. Joining us is political analyst Jane Doe. Jane, thank you for being here.
**Jane Doe:** Thank you for having me!
**Host:** Let’s start with Jon Tester. He’s been in the Senate since 2007 in a state that’s largely Republican. What makes his situation unique this election cycle?
**Jane Doe:** Well, Jon Tester is somewhat of an anomaly. He has been able to win in a state that typically leans Republican, largely due to his centrist policies and appeal to a broad base of voters. However, this year presents some challenges. The Democrats are defending a much higher number of seats, and Tester faces a tough opponent in Timothy Sheehy. Polls show the race tightening, and internal Democratic polls suggest it’s closer than public data indicates, but the stakes are high.
**Host:** You mentioned the dynamics of the overall Senate race. Why is the 2024 election particularly crucial for the Democrats?
**Jane Doe:** This election is pivotal because Democrats currently hold a slim majority in the Senate, which includes independents who usually align with them. If Tester loses, along with other potentially vulnerable Democrats like Sherrod Brown in Ohio, it could shift the balance of power significantly towards Republicans. The party needs to hold onto these seats to maintain their legislative agenda.
**Host:** What do you think the key factors will be for Tester’s success or failure in this election?
**Jane Doe:** I think it will boil down to a couple of critical elements: voter turnout and messaging. Tester has a history of connecting with voters, which has helped him in the past. His ability to show that he is in touch with local issues while countering Sheehy’s attacks will be vital. Additionally, substantial campaign funding will play a crucial role in getting his message out and combating negative ads.
**Host:** With Republicans seemingly well-positioned to gain a majority, how might that impact the upcoming presidential election if Vice President Kamala Harris secures a win?
**Jane Doe:** If Republicans do gain a majority, it could create significant hurdles for a Harris administration, particularly in terms of confirmations and legislative initiatives. The dynamics in the Senate would change dramatically, making it more challenging to pass major policies or confirm nominees for important positions.
**Host:** what are the broader implications of this Senate election for both parties?
**Jane Doe:** For Democrats, losing key seats like Tester’s could signal a shifting political landscape and challenge their strategy moving forward. For Republicans, gaining the majority would not only embolden them but could also reshape their party’s focus as they prepare for the next presidential election. The outcomes will set the stage for how both parties approach their platforms in the next few years.
**Host:** Thank you, Jane. Your insights are invaluable as we navigate this election season.
**Jane Doe:** Thank you! It’s an exciting time in politics, and I’ll be looking forward to seeing how everything unfolds.
**Host:** Stay tuned, everyone, as we keep a close eye on the Montana Senate race and beyond!