High probability of La Niña phenomenon emerging in the coming months announced

Asuncion, IP Agency.- A 66% probability of the La Niña phenomenon emerging, which would cause below-normal rainfall in much of the country, intensifying drought conditions, especially in the Eastern Region, is what is anticipated in a report published by the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (Mades).

The report is based on the piezometer analysis of the Patiño Aquifer and the forecasts of the Directorate of Meteorology and Hydrology. It covers the climatic and hydrological outlook for the quarter September-November 2024 and the behavior of groundwater in Asunción and the metropolitan area.

In this regard, during the quarter from September to November 2024, the levels of the Paraguay River are expected to remain within normal ranges in most of its basins, although with a possible decrease due to the lack of precipitation, which could affect navigation and water supply.

“The climate situation is influenced by the ENSO phenomenon, which is in a neutral state, but with a 66% probability that La Niña will emerge, which would cause below-normal rainfall in much of the country, intensifying drought conditions, especially in the Eastern Region,” he said.

In addition, above-normal temperatures are expected, which could increase water demand and complicate resource management.

Groundwater

Piezometric measurements in Asunción and the metropolitan area show a slight decrease in groundwater levels, attributed to the prolonged effects of La Niña.

It is important to note that aquifer recharge takes place on average within 8 to 12 months. If the rainfall deficit continues, the natural recharge of the aquifers will not occur, and, combined with extraction during this period, the decline in groundwater levels would be further aggravated in the future.

Water availability

If these unfavorable conditions persist, they are expected to significantly affect the recharge of aquifers and rivers, directly affecting the availability of both surface and groundwater. This situation not only threatens the supply of drinking water in several communities, but may also affect all sectors that depend on these resources, as well as vulnerable aquatic ecosystems.

Recommendations

Faced with this scenario, MADES urges public and private drinking water providers to urgently implement contingency plans to ensure the continuous supply of drinking water. Institutions and companies are recommended to strengthen their infrastructure, optimize the use of available water resources and educate citizens on the responsible use of water.

Finally, the population is urged to become aware of the seriousness of the situation and to prioritize responsible water consumption, using only what is necessary.