In the near future, the stock price of Evergreen Shipping will be easy to rise and hard to fall. The stock price performance is strong and it has become the leading big brother of shipping stocks. Evergreen may have started the main rising market. (Image source / Wikipedia)
At the beginning of this year, the rise in the stock prices of TSMC and financial stocks created a record high of 18,619 points for the Taiwan stock market index. The stock price of U.S. technology stocks fell sharply this month, legal persons and investors who did not dare to hold shares before the Chinese New Year sold their stocks, encountered geopolitical factors in Russia and Ukraine in February, and foreign investors sold TSMC, which made TSMC’s stock price drop to a minimum of 561 on Tuesday. Yuan, fell below the annual line. Although TSMC’s ADR share price still tumbled last Friday, because government funds actively support TSMC’s share price, and the short-term share price is oversold, it is expected that TSMC’s share price should not fall too much, and there will be opportunities to stop falling and rebound in the short-term. Investors It can be operated in the range of 550~650 yuan. Even if TSMC’s stock price rebounds in the future, don’t have too many dreams regarding foreign investors shouting TSMC’s target price of more than 1,000 yuan, and even beware that TSMC’s stock price of 688 yuan may be the highest point this year; in addition, don’t shout to foreign investors regarding other electronic stock targets There are too many fantasies in valence, lest love be at the highest point. The following is an analysis article by Hongyuan Investment Consultants on the trend of Taiwan stocks this week.
TSMC is expected to fall and rebound
Because the analysis of the electronics industry in the third major point above is also applicable to TSMC, even though TSMC benefits from the strong demand for HPC, 5G, AI, cloud big data, and automotive chips, there is still the possibility of repeating orders, plus PC and The weak and declining demand for mobile phones is not enough to make up for the above-mentioned strong demand. In 2022-2023, a total of 30 fabs in the world will be opened to cause oversupply of wafer foundries.
TSMC’s technology leadership in the world has become a sin. Governments of various countries have begun to notice that a company affects the development structure of the global chip industry. The above total factors will suppress the possibility of TSMC’s stock price rising significantly.
TSMC’s stock price is expected to rebound following the recent deep decline, but the closer to 2023, the more unfavorable it will be for TSMC’s stock price, because the closer to 2023, TSMC’s stock price will be suppressed by a large number of fab capacity openings; and because demand is not as good as expected And inventory adjustment will be more obvious, and even in 2023, it is very likely that TSMC’s share price will not be as good as it is now. Therefore, it is reasonable for the high point of the Taiwan stock market to appear in the first half of this year due to the rise of TSMC’s share price. Even if TSMC’s stock price rebounds in the future or may slightly hit a new high, it is necessary to beware that TSMC’s stock price is at the highest point of 668 yuan and 688 yuan, and it may have done the best explanation for the stock price, as shown in the daily chart of TSMC’s stock price. .
If the National Defense Fleet sets sail, the Taiwan stock market may hit a new high
Due to the shrinking of funds by the FED and the sharp correction of geopolitics in Russia and Ukraine, the global stock market has fallen into a sharp correction in the stock prices of TSMC and electronic stocks. Although the stock prices of electronic stocks will rebound from a deep drop, due to the large number of people locked up and the downward economic trend, even if the stock prices rebound quickly It will also face a lot of upward selling pressure, and it is expected that the stock price of electronic stocks will hardly rebound in a large band. Foreign investors and investment trustees who have mistakenly seen the prosperity of the container shipping industry and its profits have begun to admit that they have made mistakes in covering stocks, borrowing securities and selling short securities. Investors who face short-squeezing orders and cover stocks, making the recent container shipping stocks replace Huguo Shenshan as a Taiwan stock. A bright light, the Protectorate Fleet guards Taiwan stocks.
We believe that if the price-earnings ratio is too low and the value of container shipping stocks is too undervalued, the stock price will start to rise sharply following the Lunar New Year in 2021 and the stock price will hit a new high in the future, leading many stocks with low price-earnings ratio and undervalued to go to the market. Rising, with TSMC, blue-chip electronics stocks, and financial stocks falling and rebounding, the broader market of Taiwan stocks will soar and even have the opportunity to make small new highs. As the global demand for container shipping continues to increase and the rigid demand is too strong, port congestion and insufficient infrastructure cannot be solved in two or three years. In addition, the demolition of ships and slowing down to reduce carbon emissions have greatly reduced the supply of ships, dock workers and There is a serious shortage of transport workers. The European line and the American line in May will increase by 2-3 times and may sign a long-term contract of 2-3 years. The three container shipping companies in Taiwan have added new ships from the second half of last year. Profits will greatly exceed 2021, and the container shipping industry will still make big profits in the next 3 to 5 years.
1. Although there will be an increase in new ships in 2023 and 2024, when there is a big shortage of ships from 2020 to 2022, almost no shipping company will take down the old ships, but in 2023, regarding 5~6% of the ships will not meet the requirements of the reduction. Carbon emissions must be dismantled, and another 80% of ships need to reduce speed to meet the carbon emission reduction requirements. However, at present, the ship not only does not slow down, but also drives at overspeed because it rushes back to Asia quickly following unloading, which will reduce the capacity by regarding 3~5%, and the two will reduce the capacity by 10%, which is enough to offset The added capacity of new ships in 2023-2024.
2. In January this year, it was announced that the quasi-class green will continue to hit a new low. It is expected that the situation of congested ships and ports will remain unresolved in 2 to 3 years. In particular, the basic equipment such as U.S. ports, wharves, roads, and railways is insufficient and old, which is almost the worst in the world. , it is by no means that the expansion can be completed in 2-3 years; even if new ships are added, the congestion of ships will be more serious, just like traffic jams on high-speed kilometers, the increase of vehicles will only make the congestion more serious.
3. There is a serious lack of work for container terminal workers and freight truck drivers around the world, and such a lack of work is unsolvable; in addition, the crew members who stay at sea have not been on vacation for almost a year, and there are no new crew members to replace, which is also a big trouble, not to mention the future. There is also a shortage of boatmen required for the addition of new ships, which will also limit the supply of ship capacity.
4. The United States has implemented a new maritime law, which requires shipping companies not to refuse to carry American goods. Everyone must stay in the United States and wait for American goods to be carried. It seems that it is beneficial to the export of American agricultural products and other products; Weekly waiting for goods and delivery of goods will make the ships return to Asia 3 to 4 weeks later, and the capacity will be greatly reduced.
5. A new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused the collapse of Just in Time’s zero-inventory management model. The dilemma of supply chain disconnection and inability to produce due to insufficient inventory will make global manufacturers at least 5~10% more inventory for a period of time; even if After the epidemic subsides, we will continue to prepare inventory for a period of time (should be observed for one year), and we dare not reduce it easily. This part will increase the demand for transportation capacity by 5-10% this year and next.
6. The recent Russian-Ukrainian geopolitics and the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by European and American countries will also affect the recent container shipping traffic and cause the freight rate index to drop. The looting caused the freight index to rise sharply. It is expected that the global economy will recover in 2022, the natural demand for transportation, the continuous growth of e-commerce demand and the large increase in packaging volume will also increase the demand for container shipping.
7. At present, the inventory ratio in the United States is still at a new low position in the past 30 years. In the past, it took at least 1.5 to 2.5 years for the replenishment cycle to be completed.
Evergreen Shipping has started the main lift market
The first to fourth items above are the main reasons that limit the future supply of global container ships will not increase significantly. The fifth to seventh items are that the rigid demand is very strong, that is, because the rigid demand is too strong, the imbalance between supply and demand makes the container shipping industry continue. excellent. We believe that the supply of container shipping will be in short supply in 2022, the profit of container shipping companies in 2022 will be higher than that of 2021, and there may be no oversupply in container shipping from 2023 to 2025, so the profit from 2023 to 2025 will not be too bad. It will make the container shipping industry out of the business cycle in the last 3 to 5 years.
The next time point is more and more favorable for container shipping stocks, as shareholders often meet to sell securities to cover, the time to announce high dividends is getting closer, the US dockworkers are pulling ahead of the negotiations, and the second quarter will enter in late March. The peak season of transportation and the beginning of rising freight rates are more conducive to the performance and profits of container shipping companies, as well as to the performance of stock prices. As for the re-election of Evergreen International’s directors and supervisors in February, it will not affect the business performance of Evergreen Group as a professional manager, but it will involve the battle for the head of the current market value of more than 1.2 trillion; perhaps the brothers of the Evergreen Zhang family will also take advantage of the stock price. If there is a fall, it is time to overweight stocks. It is hoped that in 2023, the five companies in the group will win the election of directors and supervisors, and the company’s professional manager Ye may show business performance to win investors’ approval.
Therefore, not only the stock price of Evergreen Shipping will be easy to rise and hard to fall in the near future, but the stock price performance will become the leading big brother of container shipping stocks, and it will be more conducive to the future stock price performance.
We believe that the highest stock price of container shipping stocks in early July 2021 should not be the highest point for the majority of the container shipping industry in this wave. In early July 2021, due to being shorted by the news of the short side’s holiday, and the chips following the stock price rose in a mess, container shipping stocks The stock price fell sharply in a pointed reversal at the beginning of July last year; but because the peak of profit is not in the third quarter of 2021, and the profit in 2021 is not the highest, but the highest profit in 2022, the stock price in 2022 should still be There are high points.
In particular, once most of the small and medium-sized electronic stocks have finished the initial decline and entered the main decline, the three major legal persons and investors will greatly reduce their holdings of electronic stocks, and the undervalued container shipping stocks will be the first choice for stock exchange. , it will create a good market for container shipping stocks, so that the stock price of container shipping stocks will start a major upward trend in the future, and it is even possible for the stock price to hit a new high in the future. Like the previous wave of bulk shipping bulls, as shown in the daily chart of Sanyumin’s share price, even though the profit continued to hit a new high at that time, the share price was suppressed for a period of time, and following it was recognized by the market, the share price went up. In the segment market, we believe that the same is true for the stock price of container shipping stocks before, and it may be entering the main rising segment.
Even if many people in the market believe that the high point in July 2021 may be overextended, and the highest stock price in July 2021 may not come, this view is too pessimistic; because container shipping stocks are already weight stocks, usually weight stocks The stock price has to go through a big wave of the market, at least following the big M head, and the high point of the stock price will also appear in the year with the highest profit, not the previous year. The stock price of container shipping stocks has to make a big M before ending this big market, and the worst case will be a little more than the highest price in July 2021 to be reasonable, just like TSMC’s stock price hit a new high at the beginning of this year. , as shown in the daily chart of SMC’s stock price, this way of performance is the only way to explain it reasonably.
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