The response to the recent Israeli raids in Beirut will be attacks on “downtown Tel Aviv”. This is the threat from Hezbollah leader, Naim Qassem, in light of the bombings that in recent days killed members of the pro-Iranian Shiite group, including spokesman Mohammed Afif.
Hezbollah has also made it known that it will not accept any ceasefire agreement that violates Lebanon’s “sovereignty”. “Israel cannot impose its conditions on us,” Qassem said in the pre-recorded speech, calling for “a total end to aggression and the defense of Lebanon’s sovereignty.” “The Israeli enemy cannot enter Lebanese territory whenever he wants” in the event of a ceasefire, he added, indirectly responding to the words of Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, according to whom a truce cannot ignore “freedom of action” for Israel towards Hezbollah.
«We have received the negotiating document, we have studied it carefully and we have made some observations on the matter – underlined Qassem in his third public speech since becoming leader of Hezbollah on 29 October, referring to the American proposal -. The President of Parliament, Nabih Berri, also expressed his comments, which are in line with ours.” Qassem explained that he “negotiated on the basis of two principles, the first, a complete and total ceasefire, and the second, the preservation of Lebanese sovereignty.”
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How might the international community balance addressing Hezbollah’s concerns about Lebanese sovereignty with ensuring Israel’s security?
## Interview with Middle East Analyst on Hezbollah Tensions
**Host:** Joining us today is Dr. Sarah Miller, a leading Middle East analyst at the Institute for International Studies. Dr. Miller, thanks for being with us.
**Dr. Miller:** It’s a pleasure to be here.
**Host:** Let’s talk about the escalating tensions between Hezbollah and Israel. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has threatened “downtown Tel Aviv” after recent Israeli raids in Beirut. How serious is this threat, and what could be the ramifications?
**Dr. Miller:** This is certainly a worrying development. While Hezbollah has threatened Israel before, the context of these recent events is critical. The deaths of Hezbollah members, including spokesman Mohammed Afif, in Israel’s bombings undeniably heighten the stakes.
Israel’s stated goal of targeting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure is understandable, but it’s crucial to remember the delicate balance in the region. A retaliatory attack on Tel Aviv could easily spiral out of control, leading to a wider conflict with potentially disastrous consequences.
**Host:** Hezbollah also insists on a ceasefire that doesn’t compromise Lebanon’s “sovereignty.” What are your insights into their demands, and how realistic are they?
**Dr. Miller:** Hezbollah’s claim regarding sovereignty is a complex issue. They argue that Israel’s actions violate Lebanese territory, justifying their resistance. However, understanding Hezbollah’s history and Iranian influence is crucial. [1](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/19/middleeast/hezbollah-explainer-intl/index.html) They are a powerful military force with a strong political presence in Lebanon, and their priorities often align with Iran’s regional ambitions.
A ceasefire that completely addresses their demands is unlikely, as it would effectively grant Hezbollah the ability to dictate terms to Israel. [1](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/19/middleeast/hezbollah-explainer-intl/index.html) Finding a solution that allows for de-escalation while addressing Israel’s security concerns and Hezbollah’s legitimate concerns about sovereignty will be a significant challenge.
**Host:** What role do you see international actors playing in defusing this situation?
**Dr. Miller:**
The involvement of international actors, particularly the United Nations and regional powers, is vital in mediating a peaceful resolution.
Pressure from the international community can influence both Israel and Hezbollah to step back from the brink and engage in meaningful dialog.
**Host:** Dr. Sarah Miller, thank you for your insightful analysis of this delicate situation. We will continue to follow developments closely.
