Under the title “Intensive Care Families Determine the Course of Closure… Two Critical Weeks in Lebanon!”, Lily Gerges wrote in Al-Nahar:
The decision to close will not be easy, and it will be the last bullet fired by those concerned in the face of the spread of “Omicron”. Two critical weeks await #Lebanon, which will determine the fate of Lebanon and the official course that the Ministerial Committee will take in this regard.
Although the challenges today are greater compared to last year as a result of the collapse of the health sector and the hospital bill that exceeds the capacity of a large segment of the Lebanese, in addition to the closure of Corona departments in many private hospitals and the migration of medical and nursing staff, it appears, on the other hand, that the natural and acquired immunity and the weak ability of “Omicron” On causing serious complications, as was the case with “Delta”, it may save Lebanon from a health disaster.
Returning to the numbers, Dr. in Biological Sciences and Lecturer at the Faculty of Science at the Lebanese University, Fadi Abdel Sater, tweeted that “the percentage of the “Omicron” mutator in the positive PCR tests in the two hospitals of the Great Rasoul and Bahman exceeded 90%.” And if this tweet indicates anything, it is undoubtedly that “Omicron” will be the dominant and prevalent mutator in Lebanon, as in England and other countries.
Those concerned are unanimously agreed that the indicator of intensive care beds will determine the epidemiological trend and the decision to close. This fact is announced by everyone, as no one is able to bear the decision to close in light of the difficult economic conditions, in addition to previous experiences that were not encouraging.
However, this option cannot be canceled but rather postponed when Lebanon loses control of the virus. What increases the difficulty of the challenges is the inability to open Corona departments in private hospitals, and this was stated by the captain of the owners of private hospitals, Suleiman Haroun, that “hospitals that closed Corona departments in them, it is impossible to reopen, due to the lack of medical staff, and the significant increase in prices Medical supplies compared to last year,” he stressed, stressing that “the shortage of medicines is more dangerous than the shortage of hospital beds.”
The Minister of Health, Firas Al-Abyad, is facing a new test in his battle once morest Corona, and what in the past was self-evident has now become a difficult and impossible task. In his previous statements, he stressed more than once that “the decision to close the country will be taken by the epidemic, and that Lebanon’s situation is intolerable, but if the pace of spread accelerates, we are ready to take the decision.”
The figures indicate that infections are rising steadily, but do they also reflect a positive indicator of societal immunity. Several factors may play a role in alleviating the spread of “Omicron”, and despite its rapid ability to spread and infection, it remains less dangerous than the previous mutant, and this makes the pressure on hospitals lighter, at least for the time being.
Will we reach community immunity, or will the closure decision precede any definitive result in the face of the fourth wave of the virus?
The head of the Parliamentary Health Committee, Assem Araji, does not hide to “Al-Nahar” that “the problem we are facing is people’s lack of commitment to the measures imposed to prevent corona, what concerns us is the implementation of measures, whether by the state or citizens, otherwise all efforts will be for nothing. We will face a difficult decision to control the spread of the virus.”
The reality today reveals the failure to impose a strong authority to implement the laws, in return for the evasion and non-commitment of a large part of the Lebanese, and the danger in the increase in injuries and the fear of increasing pressure more and more on hospitals. Accordingly, the main indicator for taking the decision to close will depend on reaching the maximum capacity for the intensive care beds.
It is true that the severity of the symptoms is less than the “delta” mutant due to its multiple mutations, as the “Omicron” has become more capable of spreading but is less dangerous.
Araji stresses that the next two weeks will decide the epidemiological trend in Lebanon, “either we will aim to record large injuries in the number of cases and thus an increase in the rate of hospitalization and hospitalization and a health disaster, or a decrease in injuries as happens in other countries, including South Africa, which witnessed a rise and then a decrease in injuries.
So, the epidemiological path will determine the measures that will be extended by the Ministerial Committee for Corona, and if the infections rise steadily, we will be facing maximum measures and perhaps a closure. Therefore, the issue cannot be resolved before observing the direction Omicron will take in Lebanon.
A sign was posted on the tweet of the bacteriologist Dr. Eid Azar, “The probability of death during hospitalization is 50% less than Delta, Alpha and the Wuhan mutant. Globally, we have the highest number of infections compared to the lowest number of deaths. Therefore, far from analysis, we need prevention and early diagnosis AG or PCR Isolation and monitoring of contacts, in addition to vaccination and provision of hospital beds for those who need them.
For his part, Adviser to the President of the Republic for Health Affairs, MP Dr. Walid Khoury, agrees with Araji’s words. In his opinion, “The closure decision will be the last decision that will be taken to confront the outbreak of the virus, but for the time being, the confrontation will be through prevention and the imposed measures, and what helps us is that we have made progress in the issue of vaccination compared to other countries, but the risk is the spread of “Omicron” although it is less Dangerous to health.”
It seems that the country cannot be stopped, and therefore we may continue the procedures and stress their application, and no new decision has been taken until now, and everything depends on the extent of the hospitals’ absorptive capacity to confront the new injuries that are recorded in large numbers. According to indicators, regarding 80% of government hospitals have reached their maximum capacity in Corona departments, while there are still many departments in private hospitals that have not yet opened.
Accordingly, Khoury asserts that “we have not yet reached the number of beds that was recorded last year as a result of the severe wave, and while the number of beds in the intensive care unit reached the maximum by operating 1,500 beds, today there are regarding 800 beds reserved, while the rest of the departments have not yet opened to receive patients.” But what is different this year is that the hospital situation is catastrophic, the cost of hospitalization is very high, and the migration of medical and nursing staff has worsened the situation. This will affect the way we confront Corona.
Khoury rules out the issue of making new decisions, and we are not regarding to close at the present time, and next week he will reveal to us what the holidays have left in the number of injuries. And if we witness a steady rise in positive cases and an increase in the hospitalization rate, then we will know the epidemiological trend that the virus will take in Lebanon, and thus examine the bitter option of proceeding with the closure or not.”
Since “Omicron” is less dangerous on the health front, Khoury points out that infection with this mutant provides immunity once morest all of the previous mutant ones. Omicron will become the dominant variant and eliminate delta, and we may be headed for that trend and a rise in infections even if the hospitalization rate is lower. The vaccination rate also increased, as regarding 60-70% of the Lebanese who are over 30 received their first dose, which is a good percentage, in addition to people who acquired natural immunity as a result of infection, which means that we are somewhat protected and our situation is not that bad compared to other countries.
The positive news transmitted by studies indicates that “Omicron” is not dangerous, and this is what was announced by the World Health Organization, which said that “more studies prove that “Omicron” affects the upper parts of the body, which can be a good thing.”
Will community acquired immunity from vaccination and natural infection save the decision to close and the hospitalization rate will be moderate, as the numbers indicate today?
