A part of a glacier literally collapsed in the Italian Alps. In Japan, a historic heat wave is crossing the country. In Australia, the city of Sydney found itself under water following torrential rains. From Tuesday, a new heat wave arrives in France and in part of Europe, only three weeks following that of June, a heat wave similar to that of 2003 according to specialists. At home, the temperature will rise this week, to peak next weekend. This might mark the start of a major heat wave.
Extreme phenomena that took place almost simultaneously. For Michel Crucifix, climatologist and professor of physics at UCLouvain, “they are all linked to global warming, this no longer needs to be proven”.
“Far too many events correspond and follow one another at a high speed. CO2 emissions are increasing due to human activity and climate change as well. In summer, the frequency of events encountered, such as heat waves, is also attributed to this.The earliness and multiplication of these meteorological phenomena, exacerbated by climate change, are due to human activity, latest IPCC reports demonstrate it”.
“It’s a phenomenon that will change all of our lives”
More frequent and intense each year, these extreme heat waves are the deadliest extreme climatic events in the world and permanently disrupt our environment and our lifestyles. Phenomena that are happening earlier and earlier due to climate change, and from which southern Europe is particularly affected. Despite its geographical location, Belgium will not be spared.
According to the climatologist, we are really at the beginning of this series of successive waves and we are all becoming aware of it by the current heat waves. “It’s a phenomenon that will change the lives of all of us on this planet, to varying degrees. The heat waves will intensify, and just because we are further north does not mean that the changes will be less. We can say that the climate of Brussels will become like that of Carcassonne and that of Carcassonne like that of Granada. This is what emerged from a recent research work by the University of Liège. , people live but the habitat is different, just like fruits and vegetables. Our houses are also not adapted to this climate, there are also the transformations involving agriculture. And besides that, there is large areas of the world that will no longer be habitable, as is already the case in India or Pakistan where we recently approached 50 degrees. All of this raises the question of social justice, the wave of migration and geopolitical conflict: we are not displacing populations like that, we are heading towards worrying tensions”.
Heat waves that would have been unlikely in the early 20th century
According to the latest IPCC report, we can halve emissions by 2030, but we must act now. During the period 2010-2019, average annual global greenhouse gas emissions were at their highest level in human history, but the rate of increase has slowed. But without an immediate and radical reduction of emissions in all sectors, it will be impossible for us to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
“Global warming is a one-way trip with no return, underlines the expert. I say that in the sense that once CO2 is in the atmosphere, it stays there and is what causes the global warming of the planet. It’s not going to get cold. Each time we push the course a little further. Thirty years ago, we were talking regarding a 0.6 degree rise. Today 1.5. We will not go back. Our goal today is that it doesn’t go any further, even if it’s hard to imagine how to go below 1.5. The problem is that our ambition in terms of combating climate change and our desire to decarbonise the global economy is completely insufficient. It would take an instant change. However, there is a form of inertia when I am convinced that we might go much faster in terms of mobility, infrastructure development and urban development. Our inaction can cost us dearly. We must take the global measure because it is a global problem”.
It should also be remembered that these various heat waves which are multiplying under the effect of global warming have a major human cost, with deaths in the thousands. It is indeed established that heat waves cause excess mortality for all causes, “but this is particularly pronounced among the elderly or those suffering from comorbidities, underlines Sophie Vanwambeke, Professor of Medical Geography at UCLouvain. “Although the absolute numbers or fractions may seem quite minor compared to all other causes of mortality or morbidity, it must be remembered that these numbers correspond, on the one hand, to events of relatively short duration (for a therefore significant impact, proportionally), and on the other hand, to problems that can be better managed, via either preventive measures (for example supporting isolated people) or adaptive measures (for example in urban areas via urban planning to counter the effects heat islands)”.
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