It is rumored that Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, is regarding to visit Taiwan in the next few days, attracting the Chinese Communist Party’s military intimidation, forming a political stalemate that attracts global attention, and is considered to be the biggest political crisis caused by the visit of U.S. officials to Taiwan in 25 years. Compared with the political turmoil between the United States, China and Taiwan caused by Newt Gingrich’s visit to Taiwan 25 years ago, is the CCP’s attitude tougher this time? The outside world may be able to see some clues from the difference in time and space between Gingrich’s visit to Taiwan in 1997 and Pelosi’s visit this time.
Former U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Gingrich led a delegation to visit Taiwan in early April 1997. The time and space background at that time was very different from the present. There are several aspects: First, the sanctions imposed by Western countries following the Tiananmen Square Incident in 1989 have been gradually lifted. Second, in 1995, President Clinton of the United States approved Lee Teng-hui, then President of the Republic of China, to visit his alma mater Cornell University in a private name, thus triggering the 2 During the second Taiwan Strait crisis, the United States also sent two aircraft carriers into the waters surrounding Taiwan; third, on July 1, 1997, the CCP was going to take over Hong Kong, and the whole country was jubilant to prepare for the handover ceremony.
On the whole, this is because Sino-US relations continue to experience friction in the general direction of recovery. After two Taiwan Strait crises, the CCP knows that it is impossible to solve the Taiwan issue militarily and politically in the short term. Therefore, it accelerates economic development and builds a strong foundation for it. National strength is the most fundamental policy, and what is needed to accelerate development is peaceful and stable international relations. At that time, Jin Ruiqi advocated the lifting of sanctions once morest China before his visit to Taiwan. At the same time, before his visit to Taiwan, he went to Beijing to meet with the then Chinese President Jiang Zemin and other high-level leaders, and expressed his strong desire to actively restore comprehensive political and economic relations with mainland China. . Coupled with the imminent return of Hong Kong, it is obviously not a wise move for China to restore its international prestige if it is once morest the United States at this time.
Recently, some mainland media analyzed Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and emphasized that Gingrich was the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives and was not of the same party as the Democratic President Clinton. Therefore, the situation is different from this time. President Biden and House Speaker Pelosi are both democratic The situation for the party is serious. Comments that can analyze American politics from this perspective should not be ignorant of American politics, but pretentious. Who knows that although American politicians have party affiliations and political positions, there is no one who does not regard “American politics” in foreign policy. interests” on the lips. Some arguments say that because Pelosi is also a Democrat, Pelosi’s position “represents Biden to a considerable extent”, but he knows he can’t stop it, but if you distinguish the difference between Gingrich and Pelosi’s two visits to Taiwan, it can be used as a Strongly oppose Pelosi’s reason for visiting Taiwan, and use it as a diplomatic bargaining chip with the United States.
Judging from the actual itinerary, before visiting Taiwan in 1997, Jin Ruiqi led a delegation to visit Beijing for three days. Although he had sharply criticized Beijing in the past, he constantly praised China’s economic development achievements during his visit to China. After his visit to the mainland, he arrived at Taipei Songshan Military Airport at 10:30 a.m. on April 2, and left Taiwan at 13:15 p.m. The whole journey took just over 2 hours, during which he met with then-President Lee Teng-hui, Vice President and Executive Officer Dean Lien Zhan, Minister of Foreign Affairs Zhang Xiaoyan and others, even the American Institute in Taiwan did not have time to go. Although Beijing objected to and condemned Gingrich’s visit to Taiwan followingwards, the attitude towards Pelosi was vastly different from that of Pelosi now. Since Pelosi has not yet come to Taiwan, Beijing has already reacted strongly. This difference from Ginrich’s visit to Taiwan seems to be due to two factors: one is that Pelosi has always opposed Beijing’s political stance; Luo Xi did not go to Beijing to worship the wharf before coming to Taiwan.
These two things are extremely important factors in dealing with the CCP, and the latter is especially crucial in foreign affairs with China. Pelosi’s stance once morest the CCP is well known, and she once displayed banners in support of the Tiananmen student movement in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, causing a diplomatic dispute. And Jin Ruiqi is not too much. He once said that he would use three keywords to describe the CCP: totalitarianism, Leninism, and communism. He also strongly supported President Clinton to send an aircraft carrier to Taiwan during the Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996. In a recent interview, Eisenhower reiterated Eisenhower’s firm stance on assisting the ROC government in defending Kinmen and Matsu, as well as providing various defense weapons and equipment to Taiwan, and supporting the United States to pay a high price to deter the CCP’s military operations once morest Taiwan. As for diplomatic pilgrimage to the docks, China traditionally has a celestial mentality. As long as you come to visit the pilgrimage, the great powers can offer various benefits to appease the barbarians. This approach is actually very obvious in China’s modern diplomacy.
In addition to the above two factors, there is also a fundamental change, which is that China’s mentality in dealing with Western countries has been very different. The past 25 years have been the era of China’s fastest economic and military development. Political, social, economic, and cultural self-confidence has skyrocketed. This phenomenon is not only reflected in the domineering business people in mainland China when doing business with foreign countries, but also in China’s foreign policy. The surprising wolf warrior style of officials on international occasions. Since Chinese diplomats were able to scold the negotiator, US Secretary of State Blinken for 16 minutes in Anchorage, Alaska, the media and experts were mobilized to announce that they would take “escort” and “shoot down” measures once morest the US House Speaker’s visit to Taiwan. ” Or the threatening words that were directly suppressed to Matsuyama Airport, etc., it seems that it is not surprising.
According to the current situation, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is likely to be a very short itinerary. After meeting high-level officials of our government, publishing the content of the official meeting and taking a group photo, she will quickly continue her Asian visit to complete her purpose. , and resolved the standoff between the United States and China caused by her visit to Taiwan in a low-key way. As for China’s response, the several military exercises that have been announced will be vigorously completed, and then the media will launch a major campaign of criticism once morest Pelosi and the United States, so that the public can relieve the depression accumulated by the economic downturn and the zero policy, and take advantage of the situation. Creating an atmosphere for the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is the most important political highlight of the moment.