As Politico notes, in 2019 Ursula von der Leyen was elected president of the European Fee with a slim majority within the European Parliament, simply 9 votes, however this yr the numbers recreation to safe a second time period following the 2024 European elections is predicted to be much more tough .
There may be even a robust chance that the German conservative won’t get the required votes, the publication notes.
As a way to win one other time period on the thirteenth flooring of the Berlemont constructing which is her headquarters European Fee in Brussels, Von der Leyen it should overcome two main political hurdles.
First, he should win the assist of a majority of the 27 EU leaders throughout a post-election assembly of the European Council on the finish of June.
Second, he should safe no less than 361 votes from 720 MEPs to verify the selection of leaders throughout a subsequent secret poll.
Issues are simpler on the Council entrance. von der Leyen’s centre-right European Folks’s Occasion (EPP) has 12 EU heads of state and authorities inside its ranks, who’re anticipated to rally behind her.
There may be all the time the danger of issues going fallacious: O Emmanuel Macron of France might want one other candidate and the chancellor of Germany Olaf Solz comes from the socialist camp.
Polls present that the EPP would be the largest group in Parliament following the election, with 170 seats. To create a majority, he’ll then have to “tear the hares” to the opposite main centrist teams – the Socialists and the Liberals.
Offers will depend upon which nations tackle prime areas of labor in Brussels – akin to commerce and the economic system – and which political events take main roles in Parliament’s committees.
How will the numbers come out?
If von der Leyen manages to safe assist from the EPP, the liberal group Renew Europe and the Socialists and Democrats, that may virtually imply regarding 390 seats, based on Politico’s projections.
That might put her over the 361 mark, but it surely’s not that easy.
Consultants and political analysts warn that even when occasion leaders push them to once more von der Leyen, it’s seemingly that greater than 10% of lawmakers in every of these teams will both oppose her or avoid the massive day.
A ten% attrition price would convey von der Leyen to 351 votes, 10 wanting the crucial threshold.
Based on political insiders Politico spoke to, the “revolt” price will virtually definitely be larger than 10 p.c, even inside von der Leyen’s EPP. In earlier polls, rebels defying the occasion line have been between 13% and 28%.
It’s recalled that in 2019, von der Leyen gained a majority of 9 votes because of the assist of the EPP, Renew and S&D. It additionally garnered a number of votes from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz occasion and Poland’s conservative Regulation and Justice (PiS) occasion. There isn’t a manner he’ll get these two camps this time.
As for the Socialists and Liberals, a rising variety of their MEPs might flip their backs on her over issues that she is prepared to contemplate an alliance with Italy’s far-right prime minister Georgia Meloni. She can also be accused of weakening the EU’s inexperienced agenda.
As well as, there are rumors that the variety of rebels within the ranks of the EPP might be “surprisingly excessive”.
Based on a senior EPP official, von der Leyen ought to roll up her sleeves and name everybody.
“He should proceed to take action till the election marketing campaign is over. He has to push laborious to win Spain and Poland, He wants planning,” mentioned the EPP consultant.
Within the French camp of those that disagree with the EPP, the top of the MEPs of the French Conservative Occasion (Les Republicains) François-Xavier Bellamy mentioned that if the president of the European Fee is just not re-elected “it is going to be because of the battle we gave and which put her in a minority in her personal occasion”.
The issue that goes by the title Meloni and may “burn” her
Von der Leyen is diligently courting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose assist she is going to want each on the Council desk and in Parliament, but it surely appears like a technique that would backfire. The nearer it will get to Meloni’s European Conservatives (ECR), the extra votes it can lose to the Socialists and Liberals.
Photograph supply: Reuters
Based on the newsit, Meloni’s assist can be essential to her Council candidacy, however her worth is much less apparent in Parliament, the place her Brothers of Italy occasion is on target to garner solely round 10 seats – far fewer than the mixed energy of Fidesz and Regulation and Justice.
The Socialists and Democrats (S&D), Renew and the Greens have mentioned they won’t assist von der Leyen’s re-election if she makes any type of take care of Meloni’s far-right allies in Parliament.
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