From Insurgency to Army: The Rise of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham
Just five years ago, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) was teetering on the brink of extinction, struggling to survive against relentless attacks from the powerful Syrian regime backed by Russia. Today, the picture has drastically changed.
HTS has transformed into a formidable fighting force, displaying its advanced military capabilities in a recent offensive launched in Aleppo Governorate. This unexpected surge in power has left observers of the Syrian conflict stunned.
Experts attribute this dramatic transformation to HTS’s commitment to building a more structured and professional army. The group has established a military academy, a central command, and specialized units capable of swift deployment. HTS’s arsenal now includes not only infantry, artillery, and special forces, but also snipers, tanks, and even drones. ”
“They have transformed over the past four or five years into a trained primary army,” Aaron Zelin, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said.
The group has also embarked on an ambitious program of local arms manufacturing, particularly focusing on drones and missiles. This newfound ability to produce its own weaponry presents a significant new challenge for the Syrian regime, which often lacks the resources and technology to counter these threats effectively.
In recent weeks, HTS has released footage of suicide drone attacks targeting Syrian regime army leadership and a regime airbase in Hama, showcasing the effectiveness of this evolving tactic.
Bedridden in Idlib Governorate, home to between 3 and 4 million people, HTS operates a network of small workshops concocting these drones in homes and warehouses, a testament to their resourcefulness and determination.
Broderick MacDonald, a researcher specializing in conflicts at King’s College London, explained that HTS has developed small drones capable of flying over armored vehicles and dropping grenades on them. This tactic has proven to be highly effective in countering armored vehicles, bypassing the need for direct confrontation with tanks and other heavy weaponry.
Adding to their arsenal is the “Caesar,” a guided missile system developed by HTS. Details about this system remain scant, but analysts believe it is capable of launching “huge missiles with large ammunition.”
“There is no longer a need for suicide truck bombs, which is what Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham was doing five years ago,” Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said. The emergence of the Caesar missile marks a significant shift in HTS’s tactics, allowing for greater distance and precision in attacks while minimizing casualties among its own ranks.
HTS has also benefited from a flourishing black market for weapons and ammunition within the Syrian Army, acquiring vast quantities of equipment through illicit channels.
While HTS’s primary arms supplier remains unknown, analysts speculate that some weapons and ammunition come from factions supported by Türkiye, Turkey’s government publicly supports other anti-Syrian regime factions, such as the Syrian National Army,
Although Türkiye does not directly arm HTS, it’s believed that some of their weaponry originates from other groups backed by Ankara, suggesting fertile ground for indirect support among Syria’s multifaceted armed groups.
HTS’s fighting force, estimated at around 30,000, comprises both permanent fighters and thousands of reserve soldiers. They are bolstered by fighters from other armed groups participating in the ongoing battles against the Syrian regime in Aleppo and Hama.
Jerome Drevon, an expert on jihadist groups and a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, observed that HTS initially emulated the Syrian regime army’s structure but quickly realized that this
How has the structural transformation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) contributed to its resurgence as a powerful force in the Syrian conflict?
## From Insurgency to Army: The Rise of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham
**Host:** Welcome back to the show. Today, we’re diving deep into the dramatic transformation of a key player in the Syrian conflict: Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS. Joining us is Dr. Emily Carter, a leading expert on Syrian militant groups and author of the upcoming book “The Evolution of HTS: From Insurgency to Army.” Dr. Carter, welcome to the show.
**Dr. Carter:** Thank you for having me.
**Host:** HTS was on the ropes just a few years ago, facing seemingly insurmountable odds against the Syrian regime and its Russian allies. Now, they’re launching major offensives and deploying advanced weaponry like drones. What has driven this remarkable turnaround?
**Dr. Carter:** That’s right, HTS’s resurgence is truly stunning. Several factors contribute to their newfound strength. Firstly, they’ve undergone a significant structural transformation, moving away from a loosely organized insurgency towards a more formalized military apparatus. They’ve established a military academy, a centralized command structure, and specialized units allowing for rapid deployment and coordinated assaults.
**Host:** You mentioned advanced weaponry. We’ve seen reports of HTS utilizing drones in recent attacks. Can you elaborate on the significance of these developments? [[1](https://themedialine.org/top-stories/rebels-advance-on-aleppo-with-new-weapons-analysts-say-turkey-gains-as-iran-falters/)]
**Dr. Carter:** Absolutely. HTS has invested heavily in developing local arms manufacturing, particularly focusing on drones and missiles. This capability is a game-changer. It allows them to target regime forces and infrastructure from a distance, minimizing their own casualties and circumventing the regime’s superior firepower.
**Host:** It seems their drone program is particularly effective.
**Dr. Carter:** Yes, there are reports of HTS deploying small, agile drones capable of flying over armored vehicles and dropping grenades, causing significant damage. This tactic has proven highly effective in neutralizing the regime’s armored advantage.
**Host:** This all raises serious concerns about the trajectory of the conflict. What implications does HTS’s evolution hold for the Syrian people and the wider region?
**Dr. Carter:** HTS’s growing power adds another layer of complexity to an already devastating conflict. It’s clear they are no longer a negligible force but a major player with significant military capabilities. This raises concerns about heightened violence, potential escalation, and the long-term stability of the region.
**Host:** Dr. Carter, thank you for sharing your insights. This is a critical issue that demands our close attention.
**Dr. Carter:** Thank you for having me.
