The flu normally strikes from early February to mid-March. She arrived much earlier this year. © Adobe Stock
GPs are overwhelmed. And it is sometimes difficult to get a simple appointment. Barrier gestures have fallen and viruses have spread. For Sophie Lucas, immunologist at the Duve Institute, it is in fact the element of surprise that plays a full role. “What is exceptional is compared to the last two winters when we were confined, even if last year we were a little less so. We were no longer exposed to the usual winter viruses. We lived two years being careful to avoid any respiratory disease. So we are surprised. But before Covid, respiratory diseases spread like today in workplaces or schools”, recalls the expert.
Truly? Three situations combine to make this winter a little special, notes for his part Yves Coppieters, professor of public health at the ULB. First of all the bronchiolitis epidemic (VRS) is much more virulent than in previous years. If it is alarming for babies and children, it also affects adults and some end up on respiratory assistance in overcrowded hospitals, with understaffed nursing staff. Then the seasonal flu came much earlier (it normally hits from early February to mid-March). “Its lethality is quite high. We don’t know why she arrived so early. Influenzas have very different faces from one year to another”, explains Yves Coppieters. And then, the Covid-19 circulates with variants omicron that escape acquired immunity. The weight of the Covid is currently underestimated because many are no longer being tested while the current strains are very contaminating. “For a month and a half we have been witnessing a rebond de Covid. It will decrease. But we are in a complicated situation even if every winter there is a peak in the level of diseases. We have forgotten it but the hospitals were overloaded at this time even before the Covid. Each year, the period between November and the end of February is delicate in terms of infections for fragile people.“And if there’s a pretty heavy circulation of gastros too, maybe it’s related to the development of a form of Covid that can lead to gastric issues.
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Either way, our immunity wouldn’t have gone down. “The immune response has been dampened over the past two years. The organism did not fight. He was less stimulated. Our immune memory is a little weaker”, still points out Yves Coppieters. Sophie Lucas believes, on the contrary, that if we have been vaccinated against Covid and the flu, we have developed excellent immunity to cope. “The Covid has brought us back to a perhaps excessive hygienist culture. Of course, washing your hands and wearing a mask are good measures, but it shouldn’t turn into fear of the other. Our health is also our ability to defend ourselves from viruses and not to live in a protected bubble.”, concludes Yves Coppieters.
With
The weekly incidence of hospital admissions due to respiratory infection has recently increased to 11.3 admissions per 100,000 population per week. Excess mortality is observed mainly among 65-84 year olds in Flanders; 3% of all observed deaths were associated with Covid-19. Still according to the data collected by Sciensano, a new increase in influenza activity is observable. The weekly incidence of general practitioner consultations due to confirmed influenza infection was 375 consultations per 100,000 inhabitants, which is well above the epidemic threshold (52 consultations/100,000 inhabitants).
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Flu
In Belgium, a more intense flu epidemic, which seems to be the case this year, can affect up to around 10% of the population, or more than one million Belgians. On average, 1 person in 1,000 cases of influenza develops complications requiring hospitalization. Over 90% of deaths are in people over 65.
Pollens
In addition to viruses, pollen allergy season has already – abnormally – started. The first of the year are emitted by alder and hazel. “The question now is how these trees will emit their stock of pollen into the air. And it will largely depend on the weather conditions to come.”, explains Nicolas Bruffaerts, scientific collaborator of Sciensano. The measurement of pollen levels is one indicator, among others, of the effects of the climate on our environment. And unfortunately, it also has a direct impact on public health.