2024-11-05 01:19:00
Decision day in the USA: After months of election campaign, US citizens will finally decide on Tuesday whether they will elect a woman to the highest state office for the first time in the almost 250-year history of the United States – or a convicted criminal. Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is taking on Republican former President Donald Trump, who is attempting a comeback four years after being voted out of office.
According to calculations by the University of Florida, more than 78 million people had already voted by Monday. A total of 160 million votes were cast in the election four years ago, the highest turnout in more than a century. Because of the strong polarization, a high voter turnout was expected this time too. The first polling stations should open at midnight local time (6 a.m. CET) in New Hampshire. The first polling stations should not close until midnight CET – in the states of Kentucky and Indiana. There probably won’t be a winner before 5 a.m. CET – four years ago, due to the delayed counting of postal votes in Pennsylvania, it took five days before Democrat Joe Biden’s victory over Trump was determined.
In the polls, Harris and Trump were neck and neck until the end. The focus was on the so-called swing states, seven particularly contested states with a completely open outcome. The reason for this is that the head of state in the USA is not elected directly, but by voters. These are awarded across the federal states, with the “winner takes it all” principle being applied almost everywhere. The candidate with the most votes receives all of the state’s electors. There are a total of 538 electoral votes up for grabs. At least 270 voters are needed for a victory.
The more populous a state is, the more electors it provides. If the election goes as expected, Harris should get 226 electoral votes from states that are considered Democratic strongholds. Trump could expect 219 votes. What remained were the 93 votes in the seven swing states. The biggest prize is up for grabs in Pennsylvania, where 19 voters can be won in one fell swoop.
In the race for the White House, Harris and Trump fought again on Monday (local time) for votes in potentially decisive states. Harris traveled to the important “swing state” Pennsylvania for four appearances, Trump also traveled to North Carolina and Michigan, where a close race is also emerging. It is the candidates’ last chance to send a message to their voters before a decision is made about the presidency and the future balance of power in the US Parliament. It is also a fateful choice for Europe.
Since it is clear in the vast majority of states which party will secure victory there, Democrats and Republicans focused their election campaign primarily on the few “swing states” where the outcome is still open. Pennsylvania, in particular, is considered to be potentially decisive in the election, where there are 19 electoral votes up for grabs – more than in any other key state. In polls, the current vice president and the former president are neck and neck.
In her speeches, Harris sent a message of unity to undecided voters and Republican supporters who might find Trump too extreme. “I don’t consider people who have different opinions than me to be enemies,” said the 60-year-old in the city of Allentown. She wants to find common ground – and solutions based on common sense. “We are currently fighting for our democracy,” she shouted to her supporters. The crowd chanted, “We’re not going back!”
Almost at the same time, the Republican’s audience in the town of Reading, just 40 miles away, chanted: “Trump! Trump! Trump!” Among other things, the ex-president once again announced “the largest deportation in history.” The claim that the United States is being overrun by criminal migrants is a central plank of his campaign. Trump was confident that Pennsylvania would bring him victory. “I have waited four years for this day,” said the 78-year-old. He lost the election in 2020 against the current incumbent Joe Biden and was also defeated in Pennsylvania, but to this day does not recognize his defeat.
For days, Trump has been using long speeches with dark rhetoric to paint a picture of a nation in decline that only he can save. Harris, on the other hand, keeps it short and specifically addresses groups of voters such as GenZ, i.e. those under 30, Latinos and people with Arab roots. In a recent speech, she no longer mentioned Trump by name at all.
There is a lot at stake in Tuesday’s vote. It’s not just about the country’s domestic political stability, but also about the future role of the USA in international alliances, transatlantic cooperation and how to deal with Russia and China’s desire for power – so if Trump wins, Ukraine will have to get the important support of the USA fear in the war against Russia. The ties between Europe and the United States are huge in the economic sphere and even have existential dimensions in the defense sector.
Voters in the USA can cast their votes in different ways, not just directly at the polling station on November 5th. In some places, early voting was possible, and voting by postal vote was also possible. Each state has its own rules for deadlines and proof of identity. The technology also varies – from classic handwritten ballot papers to voting computers.
Most experts assume that there will be no winner on election night – but that is not impossible. In 2020, Joe Biden was not declared the winner until Saturday, day four after the election date. However, many Americans found out about Trump’s victory in 2016 when they got up in the morning after the election.
This time the election campaign was memorably turbulent: US President Joe Biden originally wanted to run again, but after the big TV duel with Trump, doubts grew about the 81-year-old’s suitability for another term in office. In July, amid growing pressure, Biden finally withdrew, leaving Harris to take the field. Just days earlier, Trump had been wounded in the ear by an assassin’s bullet at a rally. The image of him clenching his fist in the air, bleeding, went around the world.
As in 2020, Trump once again sowed doubts about the legitimacy of the election, spreading unsubstantiated allegations of fraud even before the vote and claiming that the victory could only be taken away from him through manipulation. During a campaign appearance, he called the Democrats a “demonic party” and accused them of cheating in the presidential election.
Trump told ABC News that he assumed the winner of the race for the White House would be determined on election night. Four years ago, he had already declared himself the winner on election night – and called for a stop to the counting of votes when he was temporarily ahead of his challenger Biden. In particular, the postal votes, which, as experience shows, mostly go to the Democrats, were not yet fully included at this point.
1730770608
#Harris #Trump #Fateful #election #USA
2024 presidential election predictions
**Interview with Political Analyst Dr. Sarah Jenkins on the 2024 Presidential Election**
**Interviewer:** Good evening, Dr. Jenkins. As we approach Election Day with both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump making their final campaign stops, what are the key factors that voters should consider when making their decision?
**Dr. Jenkins:** Good evening! Indeed, this election is not just significant due to the potential for Kamala Harris to become the first woman president, but also because it represents a critical juncture for the country. Voters must consider the stark contrasts in policies and visions that these two candidates represent. Harris emphasizes unity and cooperation, while Trump draws on a more divisive rhetoric about threats to America.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned unity. How important is it that Harris reaches out to undecided and even Republican voters in her speeches?
**Dr. Jenkins:** It’s extremely important. Harris’s ability to appeal to those who may feel alienated by extreme political partisanship could be key to securing vital swing states like Pennsylvania. Her messages of common ground and solutions could resonate with voters who are disillusioned with the current state of politics.
**Interviewer:** Speaking of Pennsylvania, why is this state considered so crucial in this election?
**Dr. Jenkins:** Pennsylvania is a significant battleground with 19 electoral votes up for grabs. It’s been a pivotal state in past elections and its demographics reflect a mix of urban and rural voters, making it a microcosm of the national electorate. Both candidates need to win here to bolster their chances, and the intense campaigning reflects that.
**Interviewer:** Trump, on the other hand, seems to be rallying his base in a much more aggressive manner. How does this approach affect his chances in these swing states?
**Dr. Jenkins:** Trump’s approach has both benefits and risks. While galvanizing his base with bold promises can energize supporters, it may alienate moderate voters who are critical in swing states. His narrative of a “nation in decline” may resonate with some, but it can also evoke discomfort, especially among those seeking a more hopeful message for the future.
**Interviewer:** In terms of voter turnout, how significant is it that over 78 million Americans have already cast their votes ahead of Election Day?
**Dr. Jenkins:** Voter turnout is crucial and historically significant. This early turnout suggests high engagement levels, likely fueled by strong sentiments on both sides. A high turnout could indicate a close race, and it will be interesting to see how these early voters align with the final outcome, especially in those swing states.
**Interviewer:** what do you think the implications of this election will be for the U.S.’s global standing, particularly regarding issues such as the situation in Ukraine?
**Dr. Jenkins:** This election is likely to have profound implications for U.S. foreign policy. If Trump wins, his approach might shift towards a more isolationist stance, which could impact support for Ukraine and relations with NATO allies. In contrast, Harris is viewed as more aligned with traditional alliances and international cooperation. The outcome could significantly influence not just domestic stability but also how the U.S. navigates its relationships with major global powers like Russia and China.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. Jenkins, for your insights. It’s certainly a pivotal moment for American democracy and its future direction.
**Dr. Jenkins:** Thank you for having me. It’s going to be an interesting day tomorrow!
