Scott Snyder, head of the Korea Economic Institute (KEI), who visited Korea on the 5th, analyzed, “If Biden fails to regain public support, the pressure to resign will increase,” and “Vice President Harris is virtually the only alternative at this point.” In an interview at the institute’s headquarters, Snyder said, “If Biden resigns, given the nature of the U.S. presidential election, those who can raise a lot of campaign funds have an advantage over those with a lot of political experience,” and “Vice President Harris is likely to be asked to run for president.”
Scott Snyder, KEI Director
Snyder is a Korean-American who is well-versed in the political circles, including the U.S. administration and Congress, and trends in foreign affairs and security. He worked in Seoul for nearly five years as the head of the Asia Foundation Korea branch in the 2000s, and developed a relationship with Korea. After returning to Korea, he worked as the director of the Asia Foundation’s Northeast Asia Bureau, and since 2011, he has worked as the director of the Korea-U.S. Policy Center at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). He has published “Why the Korea-U.S. Alliance Fails and Why It Must Not Fail,” and “Korea at a Crossroads.” He was inaugurated as the director of KEI in April.
-President Biden is in crisis following the TV debate with Trump.
“The current situation is a nightmare scenario for the Democratic Party, which Biden belongs to. He showed weakness in the TV debate and it seems difficult to recover. If Biden does not quickly regain public support, the pressure to withdraw from the presidential election will increase. At this point, the only alternative is Vice President Kamala Harris. Vice President Harris is likely to be asked to run for president.”
-Why is that? Is it because the US presidential election is largely influenced by donations to presidential candidates?
“Yes. People like Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, have a lot of political experience, but they probably don’t raise as much money as Vice President Harris. Right now, it’s better to be able to raise a lot of campaign funds than someone with a lot of experience.”
– What regarding former First Lady Michelle Obama?
“She doesn’t have much of a political base to raise money from.”
– Does Harris have a chance of winning if she replaces Biden?
“Harris has a chance of doing better than Biden, but she’s not yet winning the virtual vote once morest Trump. If Biden drops out of the race, there has to be a different strategy.”
◇The growing possibility of Trump’s return
– The current political situation in the United States seems to be increasing the possibility of a ‘Trump return.’ If Trump returns to the White House, the biggest concern is the possibility of a withdrawal of US troops from Korea.
“Trump is a businessman who takes a transactional approach to alliances. For him, the issue of USFK is a matter of leverage in transactions. He may view the issue of USFK as a negotiation related to costs.”
– Does that mean that if we receive a lot of support from Korea, we won’t consider withdrawing US troops from Korea?
“From Trump’s perspective, the issue of USFK is a negotiation regarding costs. If you look at Trump’s ‘Project 2025’ or listen to other Republican experts, the Trump camp wants Korea to be more active in self-defense in order to achieve its defense goals in the Asia-Pacific region and reduce costs.”
– The US military in Korea currently has 28,500 troops, following deciding to reduce the number by 12,500 in 2004. Isn’t this breaking the 20,000 mark?
“We don’t know at this point.”
– Koreans are concerned that Trump will withdraw US troops from Korea, just like he did during the Korean War in the 1950s, and create a “new Acheson Line” that excludes the Korean Peninsula from US defense strategy. Does Trump take the issue of withdrawing US troops from Korea lightly because he has Japan even if he gives up Korea?
“Korea’s geopolitical situation and Korea’s capabilities are different from those of 1950 (when it was okay to be almost unaware of China). The first Trump administration was characterized by a strategic perspective that viewed China as a competitor. It even demonized China. If Trump is re-elected, I think he will continue to focus on containing China as a competitor. In that sense, Korea’s strategic importance is different from that of the 1950s.”
– There are also rumors from Trump camp members that Trump’s second term will not be negative regarding South Korea’s nuclear armament. Is it possible that South Korea will be allowed to arm itself with nuclear weapons?
“As we experienced during the first term of the Trump administration, there were many words during the election campaign, but not all of them were implemented as policies. We should be careful regarding what the camp officials say. It is difficult to answer now what effect Trump’s re-election will have on South Korea’s call for nuclear armament. It is still uncertain.”
– How likely is it that tactical nuclear weapons will be redeployed during a second Trump term?
“If the Trump administration decides to redeploy nuclear weapons to South Korea, the reaction of the South Korean people will be important. If tactical nuclear weapons are introduced, I wonder where and how the South Korean government might deploy them.”
– What are the prospects for trilateral cooperation between Korea, the US, and Japan when Trump returns?
“There have been many achievements in the 11 months since the Camp David Summit in August last year, including joint military exercises between the three countries. However, political changes within the three countries of Korea, the United States, and Japan might have a negative impact on trilateral cooperation.”
Scott Snyder on Biden, Trump, and the Future of the US-Korea Alliance
Scott Snyder, Director of the Korea Economic Institute (KEI), recently weighed in on the current state of US politics and its implications for the US-Korea alliance. His insights illuminate the potential impact of Biden’s possible resignation, Trump’s potential return, and the evolving landscape of US security strategy in the Asia-Pacific region.
Biden’s Potential Resignation and its Impact on the 2024 US Presidential Election
Snyder believes that if Biden fails to regain public support, the pressure to resign will intensify. He identifies Vice President Kamala Harris as the most likely alternative candidate, should Biden step down. Snyder points out that in a US presidential election, the ability to raise substantial campaign funds is a significant advantage, making Harris a formidable contender.
Harris’s Potential Candidacy
“If Biden resigns, given the nature of the U.S. presidential election, those who can raise a lot of campaign funds have an advantage over those with a lot of political experience,” said Snyder. “Vice President Harris is likely to be asked to run for president.”
While acknowledging Harris’s strengths, Snyder remains cautious regarding her prospects, noting that she currently “is not yet winning the virtual vote once morest Trump.” He emphasizes the need for a distinct strategy should Biden exit the race.
Trump’s Potential Return and the Future of the USFK
The possibility of Trump’s return to the White House raises concerns regarding the future of the US military presence in Korea (USFK).
Trump’s Transactional Approach
Snyder highlights Trump’s transactional approach to alliances, suggesting that the issue of USFK would likely become a negotiating point for him. Trump, he argues, might view the presence of US troops in Korea as a matter of leverage in transactions, potentially linking it to cost considerations.
Project 2025 and the Shift Towards Self-Defense
Snyder cites Trump’s “Project 2025” and the views of Republican experts, indicating that Trump’s camp favors increased Korean self-defense capabilities to achieve its strategic goals in the Asia-Pacific region and reduce costs.
“If you look at Trump’s ‘Project 2025’ or listen to other Republican experts, the Trump camp wants Korea to be more active in self-defense in order to achieve its defense goals in the Asia-Pacific region and reduce costs.”
The Strategic Importance of Korea in the Context of a Second Trump Administration
Snyder stresses that Korea’s geopolitical situation and capabilities are vastly different from those of 1950, when the US was less aware of China’s influence. With China now viewed as a strategic competitor, Korea’s strategic importance is greater than during the Korean War era.
“Korea’s geopolitical situation and Korea’s capabilities are different from those of 1950 (when it was okay to be almost unaware of China). The first Trump administration was characterized by a strategic perspective that viewed China as a competitor. It even demonized China. If Trump is re-elected, I think he will continue to focus on containing China as a competitor. In that sense, Korea’s strategic importance is different from that of the 1950s.”
Nuclear Armament: Speculation and Uncertainty
Snyder cautions once morest taking recent pronouncements by Trump camp members on nuclear armament at face value. He points out that the first Trump administration’s policies did not always align with campaign rhetoric, emphasizing the need for careful consideration of such statements.
“As we experienced during the first term of the Trump administration, there were many words during the election campaign, but not all of them were implemented as policies. We should be careful regarding what the camp officials say. It is difficult to answer now what effect Trump’s re-election will have on South Korea’s call for nuclear armament. It is still uncertain.”
Tactical Nuclear Weapons and the Public Reaction
Snyder highlights the crucial significance of public reaction to the potential redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea. He raises questions regarding the deployment strategy and the potential implications for the South Korean government.
“If the Trump administration decides to redeploy nuclear weapons to South Korea, the reaction of the South Korean people will be important. If tactical nuclear weapons are introduced, I wonder where and how the South Korean government might deploy them.”
Trilateral Cooperation Under a Potential Second Trump Administration
Though progress has been made in trilateral cooperation between Korea, the US, and Japan since the Camp David Summit in August 2022, Snyder cautions that political changes within the three countries might negatively impact this collaboration.
Conclusion: Uncertainty and Strategic Considerations
Snyder’s analysis emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the future of the US-Korea alliance. He highlights the potential impact of Biden’s potential resignation, Trump’s potential return, and the evolving strategic landscape in the Asia-Pacific region. His insights offer valuable perspectives on the complex interplay of domestic politics, foreign policy, and regional security dynamics that will shape the relationship between the two countries in the years to come.