A survey conducted for the Jerusalem Post newspaper by “Lazer Researches” found that when a right-wing figure like Yoaz Handel or Amichai Shikli is placed at the head of a new reserve party, the religious Zionist party led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich does not pass the threshold.
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The survey was conducted on January 24-25, 2024 and was answered by 513 respondents who are a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, Jews and Arabs.
The poll shows that the “Iron Swords” war veterans reservist party is expected to receive between 10 mandates if it is headed by former Communications Minister Yoaz Handel, and 5 mandates if it is headed by Major General Yair Golan.
Diaspora and Anti-Semitism Minister Amichai Shikli is expected to win 8 mandates led by such a party, and if the “Brothers in Arms” leadership is placed at the head, it will reach 9.
Amichai Shikli (Photo: Miriam Elster Flash 90)
The survey also shows that when a figure from the right (Handel or Shikli) is placed at the head of the party, the religious Zionist party does not pass the blocking percentage, and that if the party is led by the “brothers to kiss” the one who will be hurt is Meretz. Golan with his five mandates “transfers” the above two parties.
Bezalel Smotrich (Photo: Haim Goldberg Flash 90)
The data also shows that the main source of votes for the reserve party in all the scenarios tested is the state camp party which loses between 3-4 mandates. Another significant source of votes are undecideds or those who do not intend to vote in the current state of the parties.
In terms of the balance between the blocs, the current Netanyahu coalition reaches its lowest figure if Handal or Shikli are placed at the head of the Reserve Party (40 in any situation), and if the Golan party or the “Brothers in Arms” leadership are headed, it receives 44 mandates (because the religious Zionist party passes the blocking percentage in these two scenarios).
Benjamin Netanyahu in a statement (Photo: PM)
In any case, the current coalition cannot reach a majority in the Knesset, even if one or another reserve party joins it.
On the question of the figures that the public wants to see as leading Israel’s reconstruction process, there is disagreement between respondents from different sides of the political map (according to their vote in the 2022 elections).
Benny Gantz is the leading figure with 53% support, but also regarding him there is a large gap between the right (39%) and the center-left (77%). In second place is Gadi Eisenkot with 50% support, followed by Naftali Bennett (46%) and Yossi Cohen (45%).
Benny Gantz (Photo: Mark Israel Salem)
Cohen was the figure with the lowest rate of difference between right-wing and center-left voters, only 3%. The figures with the largest gap were Benjamin Netanyahu (50% gap), Itamar Ben Gabir (49%) and Yair Lapid (47%).
The survey was conducted by “Lazar Researches” headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar in cooperation with the panel of Internet respondents Panel4All.co.il. The maximum sampling error in this survey is 4.3%.
