2023-10-11 13:00:05
Fifty years following the Yom Kippur War and the first oil shock, the attack by Hamas commandos once morest Israel on Saturday October 7 is keeping energy markets under tension. Crude oil prices experienced a slight decline on Tuesday 10, following having climbed 4% on Monday 9. North Sea brent (− 0.56%), European benchmark, stabilized above 87 dollars (approximately 82 euros). Same trend for its American equivalent, West Texas Intermediate (− 0.47%), close to 86 dollars.
If black gold prices are agitated, it is above all by geopolitical reflex. They anticipate an extension of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the Middle East, while Israeli bombings are already increasing on the Gaza Strip, deprived of electricity.
“The Hamas attack had no concrete impact on oil production”, recalls, in the preamble, Francis Perrin, research director at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations. And for good reason, Israelis extract almost no oil: or 0.001% of the world supply in 2022, according to data compiled by a French structure, the Professional Petroleum Committee.
A possible implication
“The increase observed in the price of a barrel is rather explained by concerns and pessimistic scenarios surrounding Iran”, continues Mr. Perrin. The Islamic Republic is still an important player (around 4% of global supply in 2022), despite American sanctions aimed, since 2018, at preventing its exports. Its crude production is today estimated at 3 million barrels per day, part of which is destined for China, according to the Norwegian firm Rystad Energy.
The United States, Israel’s traditional allies, might now be required to more strictly regulate the application of sanctions once morest Tehran. Or even toughen them if it is proven that Iran helped plan the terrorist acts of Hamas, a Palestinian Islamist movement to which it is close. An article from Wall Street Journal reports possible involvement – which Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the highest Iranian authority, denies, even if he welcomes the October 7 offensive.
The situation might also change if the Lebanese group Hezbollah, a Shiite group also supported by Iran, opens a second front once morest Israel. “If Hezbollah, beyond a few shots already claimed, enters fully into the battle, the probability of a regional conflagration, and therefore of an Israeli-Iranian confrontation, will increase, with a major potential impact on the oil market”says Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, director of the energy and climate center at the French Institute of International Relations.
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