An operation also shared with the countries sitting at the negotiating table for the ceasefire in Gaza. The raid that killed Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas while he was in Tehran, did not Isma’il Haniyeh met the death he often spoke about last night in Tehran, after having left his native Gaza for the more comfortable Doha a long time ago, assisted with a large economic effort by the government of Qatar but for this very reason very unpopular with a good part of the movement he had been part of for forty years, that is, Hamas. His exit from the scene a few hours after the inauguration of the new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian comes as a bomb in the already precarious Middle Eastern balance, but it has all the characteristics to be something very different from bad news, now I will try to explain why. First, however, it is necessary to clarify some points, without which the intricate scenario of the area risks appearing totally incomprehensible. Meanwhile, it must be said that we are just a few hours away from yet another resounding failure of the Iranian security system, which was unable to defend the leader of the Quds Forces (special corps of the Revolutionary Guards) Qasem Soleimani (killed in an American raid in 2020) and suffered the disappearance of the head of government Ebraihim Raisi in a helicopter crash whose contours are far from clear (May 2024).
In reality, the list of incidents would be much longer, but what matters is that now the raid on Wednesday night has been added, which removes the most politically significant figure in Hamas, the historic right-hand man of founder Ahmed Yassin and Prime Minister of the Palestinian National Authority for just over a year, in the brief season of agreement with Abu Mazen between 2006 and 2007 (no one else has ever held such an important role in the movement). Then we need to understand that since October 7, everything has changed in the area, because the terrifying massacre of that day has led Israel (and the broad international coalition that supports it, including leading players in the area such as Saudi Arabia) to feel threatened like never before in its national security and even the very existence of the State, which is why the use of force has clearly taken the upper hand over diplomatic action. Finally, the American electoral “window” must be considered, which makes the time between now and November less influenced by the indications of Washington, which actually considers it useful to sort out some games before trying to play (in a much revised form) the peace card in the new year, especially if Donald Trump is the President.
Here we are at the crucial point, which can only be grasped by going back to October 7. That day, with its deaths, its rapes, its violence against old people and children, its kidnappings of defenseless civilians, marks a point of no return for the leadership of Hamas, both in its political wing (Haniyeh was its most important figure) and in the military wing (which sees Yahya Sinwar at the top). Hamas chooses war as the main road in the confrontation with the hated Israel, whose right to exist it does not recognize and whose destruction it seeks by all means, even through the sacrifice of Palestinian lives (it is precisely Haniyeh who has given the most explicit public speech in this sense). Hamas causes the destruction of Gaza where it has governed with absolute power (after having physically eliminated all internal opposition) since 2005, because in the interpretation of the current leaders, war comes before, infinitely before, peace. Of course, in a situation of such complexity everyone is a little wrong and a little right: it would be ridiculous to simplify too much. But if there is to be peace one day, it can only come with new, totally new figures on the Palestinian front.
Those of recent years, those of October 7, no longer have any legitimacy to be at the table of the future, which will have to be found for the Israelis but also for the people of Gaza and the West Bank.
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2024-08-05 05:53:03
