2023-09-04 03:05:00
In dialogue with Diario RÍO NEGRO, the economist and national deputy Itai Hagman made an analysis of the economic situation, the electoral scenario and the recent measures of Sergio Massa.
QUESTION: What evaluation do you make of the economic measures announced by Massa?
ANSWER: They are essential to offset the effects of devaluation. It is an extensive package of measures, but they are limited because they are not enough to reverse the ongoing deterioration. Where I would place the most emphasis is on the absence of a policy for people who do not have parities or are beneficiaries of some of the social security programs. I expect that to happen in the coming weeks. I made a proposal, which I presented as a bill, to create a kind of universal basic salary, which is to ensure an income floor for the entire population that does not have it guaranteed and is below the poverty line. It must be universal and non-discretionary, which does not depend on an official or a social organization, as is the case with the AUH or the social security policy. They can do it perfectly, the organization with the greatest capacity to do so is ANSES. In our proposal, the amount of this transfer of resources is tied to what the basic food basket is worth. This is what we are proposing to the Government and we hope there will be some news in this regard in the coming days.
In our proposal, the amount of this transfer of resources is tied to what the basic food basket is worth.
Itai Hagman, economist.
Q: Would that income be permanent?
R: If it is not permanent, at least it is done now to compensate for the situation. But I propose that it be something permanent because I believe that Argentina must have a kind of containment network, so that no one falls below the line of indigence. Universality will give much more transparency to social policies, and you will also expand coverage to a portion of the population that is having a very bad time and to which neither the market nor the state reaches. They are the ones who do not even charge AUH because they do not have children or social plans. In our most structural project, we propose to replace the Alimentar card with this universal policy.
Universality will give much more transparency to social policies.
Itai Hagman, economist.
Q: What do you think of the refusal of some governors to pay the fixed sum?
R: It would be necessary to see case by case, but it gives me the impression that there is not a fiscal problem of the nature that is being denounced. The vast majority of provinces have surplus resources, some are even in a better financial situation than a year ago. In general terms, they should be able to afford the bonus, and it would be very important that they make the best effort to pay it because otherwise we are leaving a percentage of the population with a deterioration in purchasing power and below the poverty line, when they were not before .
In general terms, the provinces should be able to afford the bonus.
Itai Hagman, economist.
Q: Everything seems to indicate that the government had decided on the devaluation long before the elections. However, they waited until August 14 to implement it. What do you think?
R: It is a request from the IMF, I have no doubts, it has been semi-public, Argentina is unfortunately under extortion. In fact, a part of the Frente de Todos (now Unión por la Patria) did not support the agreement that this government made in March of last year, precisely because we considered that the IMF was going to play politically and that it was going to extort them at the most delicate, which is this, the electoral process. The responsibility that our government has is that it took a long time to explain this, there was a mistake. You tell me that those who voted for Massa might feel cheated, I think it is not only because of the devaluation itself but also because of the absence of a timely explanation of what was happening, why it was happening and what was going to happen do. This has an economic cost, because the economic actors cover themselves and the devaluation, instead of correcting some imbalance, what it did is give a nominal jump to everything. It also has a political cost, because it is very difficult for society to understand and support you.
We considered that the IMF was going to play politically and that it was going to extort them at the most delicate moment, which is this, the electoral process.
Itai Hagman, economist.
Q: What analysis do you make of the Milei phenomenon?
A: He comes across as a guy who comes up with easy solutions to complex problems. There is a criticism of what he calls the political caste, which is a total scam. It is not true that he is not caste, the armed LLA in all the provinces is the most rancid caste in Argentine politics, a kind of neomenemism. He says that he is going to solve the problem of public spending by adjusting the politicians and not the people, and that is a total lie, it is not possible to lower the fiscal deficit to zero in the short term by adjusting only the policy. You have to adjust retirement, education and health, public works. As Grabois says, Milei is a false prophet. He is advancing on a path of total dehumanization of politics and the central elements of the social contract. What he proposes is the law of the jungle. It is a policy of cruelty, of extreme individualism, of praising the rich for their wealth and blaming the poor for their poverty. We have to prevent that from happening, not because Sergio Massa is a phenomenon, not because things are good, but because a limit must be set to total dehumanization. The way to do that, within the options that exist, is with Massa and Rossi, it is the winning formula of these elections. Milei is Macri squared, it is the gateway to drug trafficking, dollarized countries are heavily affected by drug trafficking. Milei is the return of the military to a certain role in Argentine public life, his vice-presidential candidate is an open defender of a vision of the role of the Armed Forces in our country and of the dictatorship. It is very heavy what is coming and you have to avoid that.
Milei is advancing down a path of total dehumanization of politics.
Itai Hagman, economist.
PROFILE
Itai Hagman
He has a degree in economics from the University of Buenos Aires (UBA).
He holds the position of national deputy for the Frente de Todos, for the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires.
He works as director of the Observatory of the Economic Situation and Public Policies (OCEPP) and as director of the Center for Studies for Urban Economic and Social Development (CEDESU).
He is a professor of Argentine economic and social history II at the National University of Avellaneda (UNDAV).
Integra el Frente Patria Grande, by Juan Grabois.
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